MODEL VERDICT
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (PNC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $221.12 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $219.23 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $212.84 | CURRENT | — |
| May 8, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $216.85 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $220.71 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $197.14 | -10.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 13 industry peers | $174.87 | -20.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 13 bank peers | $176.58 | -20.1% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $235.13 | +6.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $197.14 | -10.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $213.55 | -3.4% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $197.69 | -10.6% | 100% | 93 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $168 | $196 | $224 | $252 | $280 |
| Conservative (5%) | $173 | $202 | $231 | $260 | $289 |
| Base Case (3.8%) | $171 | $200 | $228 | $257 | $285 |
| Bull Case (5%) | $173 | $202 | $231 | $260 | $289 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.53 | 14.01 | 10.92 | 23.43 | 4.28 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.70 | 12.49 | 3.13 | 18.87 | 5.82 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.22 | 12.10 | 2.18 | 15.22 | 5.07 |
| P/FCF | 9.33 | 9.71 | 6.14 | 13.66 | 2.76 |
| P/FFO | 10.11 | 10.70 | 7.06 | 12.55 | 1.84 |
| P/TBV | 1.79 | 1.86 | 1.46 | 2.07 | 0.24 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.34 | 1.42 | 1.15 | 1.53 | 0.15 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.02 | 2.88 | 1.95 | 4.34 | 0.81 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates PNC's fair value at $197.69 vs the current price of $221.12, implying -10.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $197.69 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $179.82 (P10) to $206.38 (P90), with a median of $192.92.
PNC's current P/E of 16.1x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (13 peers in the group). This represents a +12.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.5x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
46 analysts cover PNC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $252.63 (range: $206.00 — $277.00), implying +14.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (22), Hold (23), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PNC trades at the 7810th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (14.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PNC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (21.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1080.0% to approximately $245. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.