MODEL VERDICT
Veracyte, Inc. (VCYT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Veracyte, Inc. (VCYT)
Veracyte, Inc. (VCYT) — Relative ValuationPeer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Veracyte, Inc. (VCYT)
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $36.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $35.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $35.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $37.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $42.04 | Below threshold | -12.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 57 analyst estimates | $42.11 | +15.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 47 industry peers | $22.19 | -39.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 48 industry peers | $17.26 | -52.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 46 industry peers | $41.93 | +14.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 46 industry peers | $19.41 | -47.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 48 industry peers | $42.26 | +15.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $65.80 | +79.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $65.45 | +78.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 47 industry peers | $19.44 | -46.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 47 industry peers | $45.59 | +24.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $39.38 | +7.6% | 100% | 79 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 37× | 41× | 45× (Current) | 49× | 53× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $32 | $35 | $38 | $42 | $45 |
| Conservative (7%) | $32 | $36 | $39 | $43 | $46 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $33 | $37 | $41 | $44 | $48 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $34 | $38 | $42 | $46 | $49 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 44.54 | 48.51 | 26.79 | 58.33 | 16.14 |
| P/TBV | 8.99 | 7.91 | 7.27 | 15.05 | 2.77 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.26 | 2.59 | 1.58 | 6.19 | 1.78 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.06 | 6.94 | 5.54 | 22.18 | 6.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates VCYT's fair value at $39.38 vs the current price of $36.59, implying +7.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $39.38 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $27.94 (P10) to $44.15 (P90), with a median of $35.88.
VCYT's current P/E of 44.6x compares to the industry median of 21.0x (48 peers in the group). This represents a +112.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
20 analysts cover VCYT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $47.25 (range: $43.00 — $50.00), implying +29.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for VCYT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.