MODEL VERDICT
CareDx, Inc (CDNA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $21.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $21.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $21.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $17.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $16.05 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $18.72 | -12.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $14.61 | -32.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $17.13 | -20.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $36.79 | +71.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $31.52 | +46.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $15.54 | -27.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $24.44 | +13.7% | 100% | 67 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 70.72 | 38.41 | 27.80 | 145.97 | 65.38 |
| P/TBV | 9.55 | 4.35 | 1.74 | 30.71 | 10.44 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.26 | 3.31 | 1.41 | 12.13 | 3.94 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.17 | 3.63 | 1.89 | 17.52 | 5.56 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates CDNA's fair value at $24.44 vs the current price of $21.50, implying +13.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $24.44 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $17.87 (P10) to $32.41 (P90), with a median of $24.37.
CDNA's current P/E of -53.8x compares to the industry median of 27.3x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -296.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover CDNA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $24.00 (range: $18.00 — $28.00), implying +11.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CDNA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.