MODEL VERDICT
Exact Sciences Corporation (EXAS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $104.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $104.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $104.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $104.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $104.91 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $4.12 | -96.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $37.65 | -64.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $35.65 | -66.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $50.46 | -51.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $55.61 | -47.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $41.15 | -60.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $90.48 | -13.8% | 100% | 67 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 221.89 | 208.23 | 53.71 | 417.40 | 159.70 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.37 | 4.31 | 2.87 | 8.96 | 2.25 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.71 | 5.90 | 3.75 | 13.85 | 4.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates EXAS's fair value at $90.48 vs the current price of $104.91, implying -13.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $90.48 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $45.95 (P10) to $218.78 (P90), with a median of $131.92.
EXAS's current P/E of -95.4x compares to the industry median of 24.4x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -490.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
41 analysts cover EXAS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $103.18 (range: $85.00 — $105.00), implying -1.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (22), Hold (17), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for EXAS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.