MODEL VERDICT
Vertex, Inc. (VERX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $13.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $12.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $12.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $12.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $10.79 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $10.68 | -19.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $7.42 | -43.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $1.12 | -91.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $7.08 | -46.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $8.24 | -37.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $17.90 | +35.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $18.09 | +37.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $1.12 | -91.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $7.11 | -46.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.49 | +40.2% | 100% | 66 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 278× | 304× | 330× (Current) | 356× | 382× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 |
| Conservative (7%) | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $12 | $13 | $15 | $16 | $17 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 | $17 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 61.37 | 54.98 | 40.57 | 98.56 | 24.41 |
| P/FCF | 276.84 | 127.47 | 49.98 | 670.78 | 294.23 |
| P/FFO | 88.62 | 54.16 | 34.57 | 243.27 | 87.26 |
| P/AFFO | 412.53 | 396.64 | 202.23 | 654.61 | 191.69 |
| P/B Ratio | 19.31 | 15.04 | 9.45 | 46.13 | 13.71 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.75 | 6.33 | 4.42 | 12.41 | 3.66 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates VERX's fair value at $18.49 vs the current price of $13.19, implying +40.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.83 (P10) to $35.61 (P90), with a median of $21.65.
VERX's current P/E of 329.8x compares to the industry median of 28.0x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +1076.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
17 analysts cover VERX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $20.82 (range: $13.00 — $37.00), implying +57.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (22), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for VERX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.