MODEL VERDICT
V.F. Corporation (VFC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $19.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $19.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $21.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $19.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $18.23 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $12.10 | -36.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $15.41 | -19.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $12.95 | -31.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $1.51 | -92.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $2.13 | -88.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $19.62 | +3.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $27.87 | +46.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $12.95 | -31.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.10 | +0.4% | 100% | 64 | FAIRLY VALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 44.15 | 50.24 | 7.82 | 70.40 | 24.87 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.28 | 29.50 | 9.69 | 44.52 | 11.49 |
| EV/EBITDA | 33.55 | 29.16 | 8.64 | 91.40 | 27.89 |
| P/FCF | 25.62 | 20.92 | 8.40 | 63.18 | 18.27 |
| P/FFO | 39.22 | 31.20 | 6.58 | 103.52 | 33.98 |
| P/AFFO | 40.35 | 32.47 | 8.22 | 73.34 | 24.94 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.32 | 5.03 | 2.51 | 10.17 | 3.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.92 | 0.91 | 0.66 | 3.89 | 1.43 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates VFC's fair value at $19.10 vs the current price of $19.02, implying +0.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.10 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.60 (P10) to $26.15 (P90), with a median of $17.85.
VFC's current P/E of -38.8x compares to the industry median of 19.9x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -295.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 44.1x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
58 analysts cover VFC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $20.27 (range: $18.00 — $25.00), implying +6.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (25), Hold (29), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for VFC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.