Vistra Corp. (VST)
Valuation Overview•Is Vistra Corp. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a premium valuation multiple over its peers, likely pricing in superior execution.
Fragile underlying quality score of 34/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Mixed fundamental profile with offsetting strengths and weaknesses.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
VST demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-1.6% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (2.1%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.7B | -12.4% | -1.6% | +8.9% | +12.2% | |
| EBITDA | $1.2B | — | -2.6% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $1.0B | -64.5% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.88 | -68.4% | — | +11.2% | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $156.0M | +118.1% | — | -42.6% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 12.7% | 30.2% | 22.5% | 21.1% |
| Operating Margin | 2.1% | 21.7% | 14.5% | 12.2% |
| Net Margin | 13.8% | 9.6% | 2.5% | 45.3% |
| FCF Margin | 6.0% | 7.1% | 1.5% | 3.0% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $1.32 | $2.87 | +117.4% | ||
| Q1'26 | $2.31 | $0.54 | -76.5% | ||
| Q4'25 | $2.08 | $1.75 | -15.9% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.88 | $0.81 | -7.4% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.54 | $-0.93 | -273.5% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.85 | $1.14 | +34.1% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.20 | $5.40 | +350.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | $1.38 | $0.90 | -34.8% |
Total return is -12.0% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -32.9%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -1.2% | -8.5% | — |
| 1Y | -12.0% | -32.9% | +0.5% |
| 3YCAGR | +86.3% | +68.0% | +10.4% |
| 5YCAGR | +55.7% | +44.9% | +22.3% |
| 10YCAGR | +27.1% | +13.4% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Vistra Corp. (VST) valuation, health, and returns.
Vistra Corp. is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $156.94)
Vistra Corp. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $156.94 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $92.48 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $223.50 (implying +37.2% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Vistra Corp. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 34/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 4.3%.
Vistra Corp. pays a 0.6% dividend yield, covered by a 32% payout ratio with 6 years of growth, supplemented by a 1.9% buyback yield.
Vistra Corp.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -12.4% 1Y revenue growth and -68.4% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -1.6%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 22 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 33% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +37.2% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Vistra Corp. include: -38.2% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.58x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.58x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.