MODEL VERDICT
Whirlpool Corporation (WHR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $56.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $53.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $56.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $55.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $56.49 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $122.59 | +116.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $215.28 | +280.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $167.73 | +196.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $50.10 | -11.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $137.79 | +143.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $793.53 | +1302.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $790.86 | +1298.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $167.73 | +196.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $49.90 | -11.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $142.13 | +151.2% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $35 | $46 | $58 | $69 | $81 |
| Conservative (5%) | $36 | $48 | $59 | $71 | $83 |
| Base Case (-19.7%) | $27 | $36 | $45 | $55 | $64 |
| Bull Case (-27%) | $25 | $33 | $42 | $50 | $58 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.73 | 10.63 | 8.00 | 13.98 | 2.65 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.65 | 11.32 | 7.08 | 72.76 | 25.70 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.23 | 8.32 | 5.94 | 10.56 | 1.78 |
| P/FCF | 17.36 | 13.57 | 8.94 | 44.07 | 12.30 |
| P/FFO | 110.62 | 6.72 | 5.35 | 630.79 | 254.83 |
| P/AFFO | 12.70 | 9.27 | 7.64 | 22.94 | 6.46 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.44 | 2.38 | 1.49 | 3.16 | 0.55 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.44 | 0.40 | 0.26 | 0.67 | 0.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates WHR's fair value at $142.13 vs the current price of $56.57, implying +151.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $142.13 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $125.67 (P10) to $168.49 (P90), with a median of $146.22.
WHR's current P/E of 10.0x compares to the industry median of 29.6x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -66.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.7x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
19 analysts cover WHR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $61.50 (range: $55.00 — $68.00), implying +8.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (14), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WHR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (4.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 15620.0% to approximately $145. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.