MODEL VERDICT
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $78.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $76.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $71.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $67.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $72.19 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $90.48 | +15.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $108.90 | +38.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $79.60 | +1.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $112.56 | +43.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $119.53 | +52.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $87.77 | +11.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $259.20 | +230.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $280.81 | +257.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $83.50 | +6.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $112.56 | +43.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $111.74 | +42.3% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $70 | $76 | $81 | $86 | $92 |
| Conservative (5%) | $72 | $78 | $83 | $89 | $95 |
| Base Case (-18.7%) | $56 | $60 | $65 | $69 | $73 |
| Bull Case (-25%) | $52 | $56 | $59 | $63 | $67 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.99 | 25.53 | 11.11 | 41.17 | 10.11 |
| EV/EBIT | 40.29 | 22.52 | 19.13 | 121.32 | 37.39 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.40 | 12.71 | 9.51 | 14.24 | 1.67 |
| P/FCF | 51.21 | 17.28 | 16.13 | 216.16 | 80.86 |
| P/FFO | 20.65 | 15.99 | 13.73 | 42.78 | 10.77 |
| P/AFFO | 538.33 | 21.53 | 17.80 | 3125.70 | 1267.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.95 | 1.62 | 1.21 | 2.83 | 0.73 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.35 | 0.93 | 0.69 | 2.22 | 0.70 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates SWK's fair value at $111.74 vs the current price of $78.53, implying +42.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $111.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $98.80 (P10) to $158.17 (P90), with a median of $122.46.
SWK's current P/E of 29.6x compares to the industry median of 30.0x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -1.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.0x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
37 analysts cover SWK with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $89.17 (range: $82.00 — $100.00), implying +13.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (19), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SWK trades at the 3750th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (25.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SWK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (6.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 13230.0% to approximately $182. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.