MODEL VERDICT
Mohawk Industries, Inc. (MHK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $99.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $107.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $108.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $103.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $103.48 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $169.16 | +69.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $183.33 | +83.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $127.85 | +27.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $216.20 | +116.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $95.93 | -4.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $217.09 | +117.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $465.61 | +365.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $426.57 | +326.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $128.15 | +28.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $200.54 | +100.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $183.96 | +84.1% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $79 | $91 | $103 | $115 | $127 |
| Conservative (5%) | $81 | $93 | $106 | $118 | $131 |
| Base Case (-3.9%) | $74 | $85 | $97 | $108 | $120 |
| Bull Case (-5%) | $73 | $84 | $96 | $107 | $118 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 56.69 | 16.53 | 12.19 | 262.10 | 100.67 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.58 | 16.95 | 11.17 | 39.27 | 10.08 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.28 | 8.99 | 7.16 | 26.56 | 6.88 |
| P/FCF | 20.60 | 11.15 | 7.49 | 74.07 | 23.90 |
| P/FFO | 11.78 | 7.75 | 6.55 | 34.53 | 10.13 |
| P/TBV | 1.65 | 1.34 | 1.07 | 2.56 | 0.58 |
| P/AFFO | 37.77 | 13.00 | 10.80 | 163.69 | 61.70 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.05 | 1.00 | 0.81 | 1.49 | 0.25 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.81 | 0.70 | 0.56 | 1.12 | 0.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates MHK's fair value at $183.96 vs the current price of $99.93, implying +84.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $183.96 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $162.64 (P10) to $262.61 (P90), with a median of $204.31.
MHK's current P/E of 16.9x compares to the industry median of 21.6x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -21.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 56.7x over 6 years. Signal: Discount.
32 analysts cover MHK with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $130.00 (range: $118.00 — $143.00), implying +30.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (13), Hold (16), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MHK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (5.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 37280.0% to approximately $472. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.