MODEL VERDICT
World Kinect Corporation (WKC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $27.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $26.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $23.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $23.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $23.37 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $41.31 | +52.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $68.70 | +153.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $59.98 | +121.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $73.77 | +172.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $72.33 | +166.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $643.10 | +2273.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $523.44 | +1831.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $60.20 | +122.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $85.72 | +216.3% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.51 | 20.52 | 15.02 | 26.49 | 4.70 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.33 | 10.09 | 9.53 | 11.64 | 0.83 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.38 | 5.93 | 3.75 | 10.60 | 2.53 |
| P/FCF | 25.14 | 15.07 | 3.61 | 94.97 | 31.99 |
| P/FFO | 9.66 | 9.81 | 7.72 | 10.84 | 1.22 |
| P/TBV | 3.37 | 3.41 | 1.94 | 4.96 | 0.98 |
| P/AFFO | 15.25 | 15.00 | 11.96 | 20.14 | 2.74 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.98 | 0.87 | 0.72 | 1.52 | 0.26 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.03 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates WKC's fair value at $85.72 vs the current price of $27.10, implying +216.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $85.72 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $71.94 (P10) to $127.76 (P90), with a median of $99.51.
WKC's current P/E of -2.5x compares to the industry median of 30.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -108.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.5x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover WKC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $29.33 (range: $27.00 — $33.00), implying +8.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (5), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for WKC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.