MODEL VERDICT
Huntsman Corporation (HUN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $14.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $13.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $13.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $13.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $13.65 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $15.09 | +3.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $6.95 | -52.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $39.40 | +169.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $35.49 | +142.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $15.02 | +2.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $56.31 | +284.9% | 100% | 61 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.15 | 12.99 | 7.39 | 44.09 | 14.56 |
| EV/EBIT | 34.76 | 15.60 | 6.57 | 125.00 | 45.44 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.50 | 10.64 | 7.40 | 18.94 | 4.62 |
| P/FCF | 246.47 | 13.63 | 8.69 | 1394.64 | 562.61 |
| P/FFO | 30.18 | 7.53 | 4.24 | 144.17 | 51.09 |
| P/TBV | 1.83 | 2.01 | 0.86 | 2.37 | 0.53 |
| P/AFFO | 12.95 | 9.98 | 5.22 | 29.92 | 9.81 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.36 | 1.45 | 0.59 | 1.97 | 0.46 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.71 | 0.73 | 0.30 | 1.01 | 0.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates HUN's fair value at $56.31 vs the current price of $14.63, implying +284.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 61/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $56.31 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.22 (P10) to $96.96 (P90), with a median of $30.91.
HUN's current P/E of -9.2x compares to the industry median of 18.9x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -148.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.2x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
33 analysts cover HUN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $12.00 (range: $9.00 — $14.00), implying -18.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (16), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 61/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for HUN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.