MODEL VERDICT
Yalla Group Limited (YALA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Yalla Group Limited (YALA)
Yalla Group Limited (YALA) — Relative ValuationPeer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Yalla Group Limited (YALA)
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $7.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $7.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $7.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $7.05 | Pending | +0.4% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $7.04 | Pending | +0.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 117 analyst estimates | $17.11 | +134.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 79 industry peers | $16.59 | +126.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 72 industry peers | $21.54 | +194.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 110 industry peers | $17.31 | +136.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 78 industry peers | $20.51 | +180.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 112 industry peers | $19.06 | +160.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 34 industry peers | $23.63 | +223.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 129 industry peers | $9.57 | +30.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 131 industry peers | $6.71 | -8.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $22.33 | +205.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 112 industry peers | $17.71 | +142.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $20.25 | +177.0% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (11%) | $5 | $7 | $8 | $10 | $11 |
| Conservative (18%) | $5 | $7 | $9 | $10 | $12 |
| Base Case (27.5%) | $6 | $8 | $9 | $11 | $13 |
| Bull Case (37%) | $6 | $8 | $10 | $12 | $14 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.32 | 8.60 | 5.49 | 14.59 | 3.87 |
| EV/EBIT | 57.54 | 8.32 | 2.10 | 264.57 | 115.78 |
| EV/EBITDA | 58.25 | 8.18 | 2.09 | 268.09 | 117.36 |
| P/FCF | 9.50 | 8.09 | 4.32 | 20.62 | 6.44 |
| P/FFO | 83.04 | 9.34 | 5.43 | 378.31 | 165.10 |
| P/TBV | 2.74 | 1.98 | 1.07 | 5.63 | 1.89 |
| P/AFFO | 115.36 | 9.58 | 5.46 | 537.57 | 236.05 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.74 | 1.98 | 1.07 | 5.63 | 1.89 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.38 | 3.49 | 2.04 | 9.74 | 3.16 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates YALA's fair value at $20.25 vs the current price of $7.31, implying +177.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $20.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $14.24 (P10) to $30.71 (P90), with a median of $20.45.
YALA's current P/E of 9.9x compares to the industry median of 29.1x (72 peers in the group). This represents a -66.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.3x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover YALA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: YALA trades at the 1110th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that YALA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (31.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2930.0% to approximately $5. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.