MODEL VERDICT
ZKH Group Limited (ZKH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $3.00 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $3.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $2.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $3.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $3.15 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $8.99 | +199.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $24.99 | +733.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $54.34 | +1711.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $31.26 | +942.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $113.23 | +3674.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $104.30 | +3376.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $24.51 | +717.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $31.21 | +940.3% | 100% | 59 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates ZKH's fair value at $31.21 vs the current price of $3.00, implying +940.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 59/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $31.21 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $28.03 (P10) to $41.05 (P90), with a median of $34.40.
ZKH's current P/E of -12.4x compares to the industry median of 34.6x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -136.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover ZKH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 59/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ZKH.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.