MODEL VERDICT
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (MSM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $102.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $97.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $97.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $94.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $95.48 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $136.59 | +33.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $156.63 | +52.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $121.35 | +18.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $165.55 | +61.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $136.21 | +32.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $165.41 | +61.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $178.96 | +74.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $179.26 | +74.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $121.34 | +18.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $160.67 | +56.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $136.58 | +33.1% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $91 | $98 | $106 | $113 | $120 |
| Conservative (5%) | $94 | $101 | $109 | $116 | $124 |
| Base Case (-4.6%) | $85 | $92 | $99 | $106 | $112 |
| Bull Case (-6%) | $84 | $90 | $97 | $104 | $111 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.92 | 16.57 | 13.48 | 23.56 | 3.63 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.34 | 12.90 | 11.51 | 18.19 | 2.80 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.99 | 10.87 | 9.59 | 12.86 | 1.45 |
| P/FCF | 17.71 | 15.74 | 9.38 | 27.62 | 6.59 |
| P/FFO | 13.50 | 13.62 | 10.73 | 16.24 | 1.92 |
| P/TBV | 8.61 | 8.51 | 6.31 | 12.84 | 2.05 |
| P/AFFO | 17.22 | 17.44 | 12.53 | 23.90 | 3.63 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.44 | 3.37 | 2.94 | 4.06 | 0.41 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.32 | 1.29 | 1.10 | 1.47 | 0.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates MSM's fair value at $136.58 vs the current price of $102.63, implying +33.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $136.58 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $116.21 (P10) to $136.35 (P90), with a median of $126.25.
MSM's current P/E of 28.7x compares to the industry median of 34.0x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -15.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.9x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
28 analysts cover MSM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $97.75 (range: $85.00 — $117.00), implying -4.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (18), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MSM trades at the 3570th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (17.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MSM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2290.0% to approximately $126. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.