Independent Power Producers
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TLN vs CEG vs VST vs NRG
Revenue, margins, valuation, and 5-year total return — side by side.
Renewable Utilities
Independent Power Producers
Independent Power Producers
TLN vs CEG vs VST vs NRG — Key Financials
Market cap, revenue, margins, and valuation side-by-side.
| Company Snapshot | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry | Independent Power Producers | Renewable Utilities | Independent Power Producers | Independent Power Producers |
| Market Cap | $17.85B | $97.23B | $52.15B | $30.41B |
| Revenue (TTM) | $3.02B | $25.53B | $17.20B | $32.38B |
| Net Income (TTM) | $-21M | $2.32B | $2.19B | $239M |
| Gross Margin | 35.2% | 75.8% | 6.5% | 14.5% |
| Operating Margin | 8.1% | 12.1% | 7.6% | 3.2% |
| Forward P/E | 17.8x | 26.8x | 18.0x | 15.5x |
| Total Debt | $6.81B | $8.99B | $20.39B | $16.77B |
| Cash & Equiv. | $752M | $3.75B | $816M | $4.74B |
TLN vs CEG vs VST vs NRG — Long-Term Stock Performance
Price return indexed to 100 at period start. Dividends excluded.
| Stock | Jun 23 | May 26 | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Talen Energy Corpor… (TLN) | 100 | 778.8 | +678.8% |
| Constellation Energ… (CEG) | 100 | 340.0 | +240.0% |
| Vistra Corp. (VST) | 100 | 586.8 | +486.8% |
| NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) | 100 | 379.1 | +279.1% |
Price return only. Dividends and distributions are not included.
Quick Verdict: TLN vs CEG vs VST vs NRG
Each card shows where this stock fits in a portfolio — not just who wins on paper.
TLN has the current edge in this matchup, primarily because of its strength in growth exposure.
- Rev growth 21.8%, EPS growth -127.1%, 3Y rev CAGR 1.5%
- 21.8% revenue growth vs VST's -12.4%
- +68.8% vs VST's +11.1%
CEG is the clearest fit if your priority is sleep-well-at-night and valuation efficiency.
- Lower volatility, beta 1.44, Low D/E 60.5%, current ratio 1.53x
- PEG 0.82 vs VST's 1.60
- Beta 1.44 vs NRG's 1.84, lower leverage
VST is the #2 pick in this set and the best alternative if long-term compounding is your priority.
- 9.4% 10Y total return vs TLN's 7.4%
- 12.7% margin vs TLN's -0.7%
- 7.4% ROA vs TLN's -0.2%, ROIC 4.3% vs -0.9%
NRG is the clearest fit if your priority is income & stability and defensive.
- Dividend streak 8 yrs, beta 1.84, yield 1.5%
- Beta 1.84, yield 1.5%, current ratio 1.64x
- Lower P/E (15.5x vs 18.0x), PEG 1.09 vs 1.60
- 1.5% yield, 8-year raise streak, vs CEG's 0.5%, (1 stock pays no dividend)
See the full category breakdown
| Category | Winner | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth | 21.8% revenue growth vs VST's -12.4% | |
| Value | Lower P/E (15.5x vs 18.0x), PEG 1.09 vs 1.60 | |
| Quality / Margins | 12.7% margin vs TLN's -0.7% | |
| Stability / Safety | Beta 1.44 vs NRG's 1.84, lower leverage | |
| Dividends | 1.5% yield, 8-year raise streak, vs CEG's 0.5%, (1 stock pays no dividend) | |
| Momentum (1Y) | +68.8% vs VST's +11.1% | |
| Efficiency (ROA) | 7.4% ROA vs TLN's -0.2%, ROIC 4.3% vs -0.9% |
TLN vs CEG vs VST vs NRG — Revenue Breakdown by Segment
How each company's revenue is distributed across its business units
TLN vs CEG vs VST vs NRG — Financial Metrics
Side-by-side numbers across 4 stocks — who leads on profitability, valuation, growth, and risk.
Who Leads Where
NRG leads in 2 of 6 categories
CEG leads 1 • TLN leads 1 • VST leads 0 • 2 tied
Explore the data ↓Income & Cash Flow (Last 12 Months)
Evenly matched — TLN and CEG and VST each lead in 2 of 6 comparable metrics.
Income & Cash Flow (Last 12 Months)
NRG is the larger business by revenue, generating $32.4B annually — 10.7x TLN's $3.0B. VST is the more profitable business, keeping 12.7% of every revenue dollar as net income compared to TLN's -0.7%. On growth, TLN holds the edge at +78.9% YoY revenue growth, suggesting stronger near-term business momentum.
| Metric | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RevenueTrailing 12 months | $3.0B | $25.5B | $17.2B | $32.4B |
| EBITDAEarnings before interest/tax | $396M | $4.7B | $3.1B | $3.1B |
| Net IncomeAfter-tax profit | -$21M | $2.3B | $2.2B | $239M |
| Free Cash FlowCash after capex | -$2.8B | $1.3B | $2.0B | -$7.7B |
| Gross MarginGross profit ÷ Revenue | +35.2% | +75.8% | +6.5% | +14.5% |
| Operating MarginEBIT ÷ Revenue | +8.1% | +12.1% | +7.6% | +3.2% |
| Net MarginNet income ÷ Revenue | -0.7% | +9.1% | +12.7% | +0.7% |
| FCF MarginFCF ÷ Revenue | -93.4% | +5.0% | +11.7% | -23.7% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | +78.9% | +1.4% | +9.1% | +19.5% |
| EPS Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | +145.2% | -49.1% | +100.0% | -85.6% |
Valuation Metrics
NRG leads this category, winning 4 of 7 comparable metrics.
Valuation Metrics
At 35.3x trailing earnings, NRG trades at a 49% valuation discount to VST's 69.7x P/E. Adjusting for growth (PEG ratio), CEG offers better value at 1.29x vs VST's 6.23x — a lower PEG means you pay less per unit of expected earnings growth.
| Metric | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market CapShares × price | $17.8B | $97.2B | $52.2B | $30.4B |
| Enterprise ValueMkt cap + debt − cash | $23.9B | $102.5B | $71.7B | $42.4B |
| Trailing P/EPrice ÷ TTM EPS | -81.53x | 42.06x | 69.70x | 35.34x |
| Forward P/EPrice ÷ next-FY EPS est. | 17.76x | 26.83x | 17.95x | 15.46x |
| PEG RatioP/E ÷ EPS growth rate | — | 1.29x | 6.23x | 2.50x |
| EV / EBITDAEnterprise value multiple | 114.93x | 25.17x | 16.74x | 11.15x |
| Price / SalesMarket cap ÷ Revenue | 7.07x | 3.81x | 3.07x | 0.99x |
| Price / BookPrice ÷ Book value/share | 16.33x | 6.58x | 10.24x | 16.78x |
| Price / FCFMarket cap ÷ FCF | — | 75.49x | 404.28x | 39.70x |
Profitability & Efficiency
CEG leads this category, winning 5 of 9 comparable metrics.
Profitability & Efficiency
VST delivers a 57.8% return on equity — every $100 of shareholder capital generates $58 in annual profit, vs $-2 for TLN. CEG carries lower financial leverage with a 0.61x debt-to-equity ratio, signaling a more conservative balance sheet compared to NRG's 9.97x. On the Piotroski fundamental quality scale (0–9), CEG scores 7/9 vs VST's 4/9, reflecting strong financial health.
| Metric | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROE (TTM)Return on equity | -1.7% | +15.6% | +57.8% | +8.8% |
| ROA (TTM)Return on assets | -0.2% | +4.1% | +7.4% | +0.8% |
| ROICReturn on invested capital | -0.9% | +11.9% | +4.3% | +10.6% |
| ROCEReturn on capital employed | -0.9% | +6.5% | +4.5% | +10.2% |
| Piotroski ScoreFundamental quality 0–9 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| Debt / EquityFinancial leverage | 6.23x | 0.61x | 3.99x | 9.97x |
| Net DebtTotal debt minus cash | $6.1B | $5.2B | $19.6B | $12.0B |
| Cash & Equiv.Liquid assets | $752M | $3.7B | $816M | $4.7B |
| Total DebtShort + long-term debt | $6.8B | $9.0B | $20.4B | $16.8B |
| Interest CoverageEBIT ÷ Interest expense | 0.45x | 6.04x | 1.95x | 2.40x |
Total Returns (Dividends Reinvested)
TLN leads this category, winning 4 of 6 comparable metrics.
Total Returns (Dividends Reinvested)
A $10,000 investment in VST five years ago would be worth $98,469 today (with dividends reinvested), compared to $43,048 for NRG. Over the past 12 months, TLN leads with a +68.8% total return vs VST's +11.1%. The 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) favors TLN at 103.3% vs CEG's 58.9% — a key indicator of consistent wealth creation.
| Metric | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YTD ReturnYear-to-date | -1.6% | -14.9% | -6.6% | -14.1% |
| 1-Year ReturnPast 12 months | +68.8% | +16.7% | +11.1% | +21.0% |
| 3-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +739.9% | +300.9% | +570.1% | +369.0% |
| 5-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +739.9% | +653.2% | +884.7% | +330.5% |
| 10-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +739.9% | +653.2% | +942.3% | +870.6% |
| CAGR (3Y)Annualised 3-year return | +103.3% | +58.9% | +88.5% | +67.4% |
Risk & Volatility
Evenly matched — TLN and CEG each lead in 1 of 2 comparable metrics.
Risk & Volatility
CEG is the less volatile stock with a 1.44 beta — it tends to amplify market swings less than NRG's 1.84 beta. A beta below 1.0 means the stock typically moves less than the S&P 500. TLN currently trades 86.5% from its 52-week high vs VST's 70.1% drawdown — a narrower gap to the peak suggests stronger recent price momentum.
| Metric | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta (5Y)Sensitivity to S&P 500 | 1.53x | 1.44x | 1.56x | 1.84x |
| 52-Week HighHighest price in past year | $451.28 | $412.70 | $219.82 | $189.96 |
| 52-Week LowLowest price in past year | $220.59 | $243.30 | $133.73 | $115.48 |
| % of 52W HighCurrent price vs 52-week peak | +86.5% | +75.4% | +70.1% | +74.6% |
| RSI (14)Momentum oscillator 0–100 | 69.9 | 60.7 | 49.5 | 44.4 |
| Avg Volume (50D)Average daily shares traded | 717K | 2.8M | 4.1M | 2.8M |
Analyst Outlook
NRG leads this category, winning 2 of 2 comparable metrics.
Analyst Outlook
Analyst consensus: TLN as "Buy", CEG as "Buy", VST as "Buy", NRG as "Buy". Consensus price targets imply 47.7% upside for VST (target: $228) vs 21.8% for TLN (target: $476). For income investors, NRG offers the higher dividend yield at 1.46% vs CEG's 0.50%.
| Metric | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Analyst RatingConsensus buy/hold/sell | Buy | Buy | Buy | Buy |
| Price TargetConsensus 12-month target | $475.80 | $405.33 | $227.60 | $194.00 |
| # AnalystsCovering analysts | 12 | 19 | 21 | 26 |
| Dividend YieldAnnual dividend ÷ price | — | +0.5% | +0.6% | +1.5% |
| Dividend StreakConsecutive years of raises | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Dividend / ShareAnnual DPS | — | $1.55 | $0.90 | $2.07 |
| Buyback YieldShare repurchases ÷ mkt cap | +0.6% | +0.4% | +2.0% | +4.6% |
NRG leads in 2 of 6 categories (Valuation Metrics, Analyst Outlook). CEG leads in 1 (Profitability & Efficiency). 2 tied.
TLN vs CEG vs VST vs NRG: Key Questions Answered
10 questions · data-driven answers · updated daily
01Is TLN or CEG or VST or NRG a better buy right now?
For growth investors, Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) is the stronger pick with 21.
8% revenue growth year-over-year, versus -12. 4% for Vistra Corp. (VST). NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) offers the better valuation at 35. 3x trailing P/E (15. 5x forward), making it the more compelling value choice. Analysts rate Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) a "Buy" — based on 12 analyst ratings — the highest consensus in this comparison. The "better buy" depends entirely on your goals: growth investors should weight revenue trajectory, value investors should weight P/E and PEG, and income investors should weight dividend yield and streak.
02Which has the better valuation — TLN or CEG or VST or NRG?
On trailing P/E, NRG Energy, Inc.
(NRG) is the cheapest at 35. 3x versus Vistra Corp. at 69. 7x. On forward P/E, NRG Energy, Inc. is actually cheaper at 15. 5x. The PEG ratio (P/E divided by earnings growth rate) is the most growth-adjusted single valuation metric: Constellation Energy Corporation wins at 0. 82x versus Vistra Corp. 's 1. 60x — a PEG below 1. 0 traditionally signals the market is underpricing earnings growth.
03Which is the better long-term investment — TLN or CEG or VST or NRG?
Over the past 5 years, Vistra Corp.
(VST) delivered a total return of +884. 7%, compared to +330. 5% for NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG). Over 10 years, the gap is even starker: VST returned +942. 3% versus CEG's +653. 2%. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and the stock with the higher historical return may already have its best growth priced in.
04Which is safer — TLN or CEG or VST or NRG?
By beta (market sensitivity over 5 years), Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) is the lower-risk stock at 1.
44β versus NRG Energy, Inc. 's 1. 84β — meaning NRG is approximately 28% more volatile than CEG relative to the S&P 500. On balance sheet safety, Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) carries a lower debt/equity ratio of 61% versus 10% for NRG Energy, Inc. — giving it more financial flexibility in a downturn.
05Which is growing faster — TLN or CEG or VST or NRG?
By revenue growth (latest reported year), Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) is pulling ahead at 21.
8% versus -12. 4% for Vistra Corp. (VST). On earnings-per-share growth, the picture is similar: NRG Energy, Inc. grew EPS -19. 6% year-over-year, compared to -127. 1% for Talen Energy Corporation. Over a 3-year CAGR, TLN leads at 1. 5% annualised revenue growth. Higher growth typically commands a higher valuation multiple — check whether the premium P/E or P/S is justified by the growth rate using the PEG ratio.
06Which has better profit margins — TLN or CEG or VST or NRG?
Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) is the more profitable company, earning 9.
1% net margin versus -8. 7% for Talen Energy Corporation — meaning it keeps 9. 1% of every revenue dollar as bottom-line profit. Operating margin tells a similar story: CEG leads at 12. 1% versus -2. 8% for TLN. At the gross margin level — before operating expenses — CEG leads at 75. 8%, reflecting greater pricing power or product mix advantage. Stronger margins indicate durable pricing power, lower cost of revenue, or higher mix of software/services. They are one of the clearest signs of business quality.
07Is TLN or CEG or VST or NRG more undervalued right now?
The PEG ratio (forward P/E divided by expected earnings growth rate) is the most precise measure of undervaluation relative to growth potential.
By this metric, Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) is the more undervalued stock at a PEG of 0. 82x versus Vistra Corp. 's 1. 60x. A PEG below 1. 0 is traditionally considered the threshold for growth-adjusted undervaluation. On forward earnings alone, NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) trades at 15. 5x forward P/E versus 26. 8x for Constellation Energy Corporation — 11. 4x cheaper on a one-year earnings basis. Analyst consensus price targets imply the most upside for VST: 47. 7% to $227. 60.
08Which pays a better dividend — TLN or CEG or VST or NRG?
In this comparison, NRG (1.
5% yield), VST (0. 6% yield), CEG (0. 5% yield) pay a dividend. TLN does not pay a meaningful dividend and should not be held primarily for income.
09Is TLN or CEG or VST or NRG better for a retirement portfolio?
For long-horizon retirement investors, Vistra Corp.
(VST) is the stronger choice — it scores higher on the combination of lower volatility, dividend reliability, and long-term compounding (0. 6% yield, +942. 3% 10Y return). Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) carries a higher beta of 1. 53 — meaning larger drawdowns in market downturns, which matters significantly when you cannot wait years for a recovery. Both have compounded well over 10 years (VST: +942. 3%, TLN: +739. 9%), confirming both are viable long-term holds — but the lower-volatility option typically results in less emotional selling during corrections. Retirement portfolios generally favour predictability over maximum returns. Consult a financial advisor before making allocation decisions.
10What are the main differences between TLN and CEG and VST and NRG?
Both stocks operate in the Utilities sector, making this a peer-level intra-sector comparison — the same macro tailwinds and headwinds will affect both.
In terms of investment character: TLN is a mid-cap high-growth stock; CEG is a mid-cap quality compounder stock; VST is a mid-cap quality compounder stock; NRG is a mid-cap quality compounder stock. VST, NRG pay a dividend while TLN, CEG do not, making them suitable for different income and tax situations. These fundamental differences mean investors should not choose between them on a single metric — the "better stock" depends entirely on which of these characteristics aligns with your investment strategy.
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