Upside case
Bull case
$227+139.8%
ACGL would need investors to value it at roughly 24x earnings — about 14x more generous than today's 10x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
34
analysts
16 bullish · 2 bearish · 34 covering ACGL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
16
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$104
+9.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$67 – $227
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
34
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
10.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $33.7B
ACGL price targets
Three scenarios for where ACGL stock could go
Current
~$95
Confidence
68 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $95
Bear
$67
Base
$133
Bull
$227
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$133+40.1%
At 14x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$67-29.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push ACGL down roughly 29% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
ACGL · NASDAQFinancial ServicesInsurance - DiversifiedDecember year-end
Arch Capital Group is a global specialty insurer and reinsurer offering property, casualty, and mortgage insurance products. It generates revenue through three main segments: insurance (~45% of gross premiums), reinsurance (~35%), and mortgage insurance (~20%). The company's competitive advantage lies in its disciplined underwriting approach, global distribution network, and expertise in complex specialty risks.
Market Cap
$33.7B
Revenue TTM
$19.9B
Net Income TTM
$4.4B
Net Margin
22.1%
ACGL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+17.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.58/$2.30
Revenue
$5.2B/$4.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.77/$2.26
Revenue
$5.0B/$4.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.98/$2.59
Revenue
$3.6B/$4.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.50/$2.48
Revenue
$4.3B/$4.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.58/$2.30 | +12.2% | $5.2B/$4.3B | +20.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.77/$2.26 | +22.6% | $5.0B/$4.5B | +10.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.98/$2.59 | +15.1% | $3.6B/$4.2B | -13.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.50/$2.48 | +0.8% | $4.3B/$4.6B | -4.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$21.6B
+8.4% YoY
FY2
$25.5B
+18.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$13.23
+13.1% YoY
FY2
$16.28
+23.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$6.1B
FCF Margin: 30.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ACGL beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ACGL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $17.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Reinsurance Segment
47.6%
+12.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Reinsurance Segment
47.6%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Reinsurance Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 47.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 12.2% YoY.
Reinsurance Segment is the largest reported region at 47.6%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
ACGL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $100 — implies +6.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
6.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ACGL
8.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
68% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
ACGL
8.1x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
39% discount
vs ACGL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
8.1x
vs
5Y Average
9.6x
15% discount
Forward PE
10.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
-47%
Financial Services
10.5x
-4%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
8.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
-68%
Financial Services
13.4x
-39%
5Y Avg
9.6x
-15%
PEG Ratio
0.29x
S&P 500
1.75x
-84%
Financial Services
1.03x
-72%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
6.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
-55%
Financial Services
11.4x
-40%
5Y Avg
10.5x
-35%
Price/FCF
5.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
-74%
Financial Services
10.6x
-48%
5Y Avg
5.5x
-1%
Price/Sales
1.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-46%
Financial Services
2.3x
-25%
5Y Avg
2.1x
-19%
Dividend Yield
0.02%
S&P 500
1.88%
-99%
Financial Services
2.68%
-99%
5Y Avg
1.18%
-98%
| Metric | ACGL | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg ACGL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 10.1x | 19.1x-47% | 10.5x | — |
| Trailing PE | 8.1x | 25.2x-68% | 13.4x-39% | 9.6x-15% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.29x | 1.75x-84% | 1.03x-72% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.9x | 15.3x-55% | 11.4x-40% | 10.5x-35% |
| Price/FCF | 5.5x | 21.3x-74% | 10.6x-48% | 5.5x |
| Price/Sales | 1.7x | 3.1x-46% | 2.3x-25% | 2.1x-19% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.02% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 1.18% |
ACGL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolACGL Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
ACGL posts 22.1% net margin with 19.0% ROE — the core signals of underwriting discipline and capital efficiency.
Underwriting & Earnings
Premium revenue, margins, and returns
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$19.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+14.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
25.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
22.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$11.70
ROE
Return on equity — measures underwriting and investment efficiency
19.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
15.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$993M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.7B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
19.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.6%
Dividend
0.0%
Buyback
5.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.9B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.02
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
0.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
356M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageACGL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Market & Economic Volatility
ACGL’s financial results are highly sensitive to fluctuations in financial markets and macroeconomic conditions. Rising inflation, higher interest rates, and declining housing prices can erode both its investment portfolio returns and underwriting profitability.
High Risk
Regulatory & Climate Exposure
The company operates in a complex regulatory environment and faces significant climate‑related risks. Climate‑induced events can trigger higher claim volumes, increasing financial exposure and potentially straining reserves.
High Risk
Social Inflation & Catastrophe Risk
Accelerating social inflation and the possibility of large catastrophe losses threaten ACGL’s ability to maintain adequate reserves and protect its book value. Such events could lead to substantial write‑offs and impact long‑term solvency.
Medium
Operational & Cybersecurity Disruption
ACGL must maintain robust operating procedures and cybersecurity defenses. Failures in these areas could cause operational disruptions, data breaches, and reputational damage.
Medium
Competitive Pricing Pressure
The insurance and reinsurance markets are highly competitive, with constant pressure on pricing, capacity, and coverage terms. ACGL must adapt to remain competitive against traditional insurers, new entrants, and alternative capital providers.
Medium
Underwriting Income Decline
Projections indicate potential declines in underwriting income, which could be exacerbated by a slowing growth outlook and heightened pricing competition. Reduced underwriting profitability may limit the company’s ability to grow reserves and invest in future opportunities.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ACGL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Financial Performance
Arch Capital Group reported Q4 2025 EPS of $3.35, reflecting a 21.2% annualized net income return on average common equity. Operating income rose 16% YoY, while revenue and gross profit grew 14% and 16% respectively.
Reinsurance Segment Growth
The reinsurance unit became the largest by net written premiums, expanding from $1.9 billion in 2018 to over $11 billion in 2024, driven by favorable market conditions.
Rising Investment Income
Arch Capital has benefited from higher global yields, boosting net investment income and supporting continued growth in book value per share.
Strategic Acquisitions
The acquisition of Allianz’s US MidCorp and Entertainment businesses strengthened the insurance segment, enhancing revenue diversification across commercial, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance.
Favorable Hard P&C Market
Elevated catastrophe losses are expected to persist, allowing Arch Capital to increase rates and premium growth in a hard property‑and‑casualty environment.
Strong Management & Operational Excellence
The company’s disciplined performance culture and CEO optimism position it to deliver superior results through 2026, underscoring operational resilience.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ACGL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$94.70
52W Range Position
59%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$82.45
+14.9% from the low
52-Week High
$103.39
-8.4% from the high
1 Month
-2.16%
3 Month
-6.19%
YTD
+0.9%
1 Year
+1.8%
3Y CAGR
+7.5%
5Y CAGR
+18.9%
10Y CAGR
+15.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ACGL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
10.1x
vs 8.3x median
+21% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.4%
vs +8.7% median
-3% below peer median
Net Margin
22.1%
vs 11.5% median
+93% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ACG ACGL Arch Capital Group Ltd. | $33.7B | 10.1x | +8.4% | 22.1% | Buy | +9.8% |
RNR RNR RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. | $13.1B | 7.7x | +13.7% | 26.9% | Hold | +1.9% |
GLR GLRE Greenlight Capital Re, Ltd. | $606M | 8.9x | +8.7% | 11.5% | Buy | — |
PRE PRE Prenetics Global Limited | $242M | — | +69.0% | -67.4% | Buy | +126.4% |
AXS AXS AXIS Capital Holdings Limited | $7.3B | 7.5x | +7.1% | 16.2% | Buy | +24.7% |
MKL MKL Markel Corporation | $22.3B | 15.9x | +3.4% | 10.7% | Hold | +9.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ACGL Dividend and Capital Return
ACGL returns capital mainly through $1.9B/year in buybacks (5.6% buyback yield), with a modest 0.02% dividend — combining for 5.7% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
5.6%
Dividend Yield
0.02%
Payout Ratio
0.2%
How ACGL Splits Its Return
Buyback 5.6%
Dividend 0.02%Buybacks 5.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.02
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-44.0%
5Y Div CAGR
-28.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.9B
Estimated Shares Retired
20M
Approx. Share Reduction
5.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
356M
At 5.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $5.00 | — | 0.1% | 5.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsACGL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 34 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $104, implying +9.8% from the current price of $95. The bear case scenario is $67 and the bull case is $227.
02What is the ACGL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ACGL is $104 based on 34 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $114 (+20.4% from today), and the low-end target is $93 (-1.8%). The base case model target is $133.
03Is Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) stock overvalued in 2026?
ACGL trades at 10.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ACGL in 2026 are: (1) Market & Economic Volatility — ACGL’s financial results are highly sensitive to fluctuations in financial markets and macroeconomic conditions. (2) Regulatory & Climate Exposure — The company operates in a complex regulatory environment and faces significant climate‑related risks. (3) Social Inflation & Catastrophe Risk — Accelerating social inflation and the possibility of large catastrophe losses threaten ACGL’s ability to maintain adequate reserves and protect its book value. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Arch Capital Group Ltd.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ACGL will report consensus revenue of $21.6B (+8.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $13.23 (+13.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $25.5B in revenue.
06When does Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ACGL is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Arch Capital Group Ltd. generate?
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) generated $6.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 30.7%. ACGL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.0% yield) and share repurchases ($1.9B TTM).