Upside case
Bull case
$139+53.0%
AU would need investors to value it at roughly 14x earnings — about 5x more generous than today's 9x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
AngloGold Ashanti Plc (AU) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
14
analysts
9 bullish · 2 bearish · 14 covering AU
Strong Buy
0
Buy
9
Hold
3
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$148
+62.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$66 – $139
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
14
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
9.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $45.9B
AU price targets
Three scenarios for where AU stock could go
Current
~$91
Confidence
37 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $91
Bear
$66
Base
$106
Bull
$139
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$106+16.1%
At 10x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$66-26.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push AU down roughly 27% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
AngloGold Ashanti Plc
AU · NYSEBasic MaterialsGoldDecember year-end
AngloGold Ashanti is a global gold mining company that operates mines across Africa, the Americas, and Australia. It generates revenue primarily from gold sales — with additional income from silver and sulphuric acid byproducts — through its portfolio of mining operations. The company's competitive advantage lies in its geographically diversified asset base and long-life, low-cost mines that provide operational resilience.
Market Cap
$45.9B
Revenue TTM
$11.2B
Net Income TTM
$3.5B
Net Margin
31.1%
AU Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
18%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-37.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.25/$1.31
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.32/$1.34
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.90/$1.98
Revenue
$3.0B/$3.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.52/$2.27
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.25/$1.31 | -4.6% | $2.4B/$2.4B | +1.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.32/$1.34 | -1.5% | $2.4B/$2.8B | -15.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.90/$1.98 | -4.0% | $3.0B/$3.0B | -0.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.52/$2.27 | +11.0% | $3.2B/$3.3B | -3.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12.5B
+11.9% YoY
FY2
$14.0B
+11.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.70
-2.6% YoY
FY2
$6.34
-5.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.0B
FCF Margin: 35.8%
Next Earnings
July 31, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.13
Expected Revenue
$3.3B
AU beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
AU Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $9.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Spot Revenue
100.0%
+79.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Spot Revenue is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 79.3% YoY.
AU Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $111 — implies +22.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
22.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AU
17.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
28% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
AU
17.5x
vs
Basic Materials
23.6x
26% discount
vs AU 5Y Avg P/E
Today
17.5x
vs
5Y Average
19.0x
8% discount
Forward PE
9.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
-52%
Basic Materials
14.9x
-40%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
17.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
-28%
Basic Materials
23.6x
-26%
5Y Avg
19.0x
-8%
PEG Ratio
1.01x
S&P 500
1.66x
-39%
Basic Materials
1.23x
-18%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
-46%
Basic Materials
11.0x
-25%
5Y Avg
7.0x
+18%
Price/FCF
14.8x
S&P 500
20.7x
-29%
Basic Materials
29.0x
-49%
5Y Avg
25.5x
-42%
Price/Sales
4.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+50%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+147%
5Y Avg
2.4x
+96%
Dividend Yield
4.05%
S&P 500
1.91%
+112%
Basic Materials
1.41%
+188%
5Y Avg
2.67%
+52%
| Metric | AU | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg AU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 9.0x | 18.8x-52% | 14.9x-40% | — |
| Trailing PE | 17.5x | 24.4x-28% | 23.6x-26% | 19.0x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.01x | 1.66x-39% | 1.23x-18% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.3x | 15.2x-46% | 11.0x-25% | 7.0x+18% |
| Price/FCF | 14.8x | 20.7x-29% | 29.0x-49% | 25.5x-42% |
| Price/Sales | 4.6x | 3.1x+50% | 1.9x+147% | 2.4x+96% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.05% | 1.91% | 1.41% | 2.67% |
AU trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAU Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
AU generates $4.0B in free cash flow at a 35.8% margin — 35.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 4.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$11.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+75.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
52.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
48.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
31.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.88
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
35.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
35.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
23.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.9B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$492M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
35.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.1%
Dividend
4.1%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.68
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
71.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
505M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAU Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Cost Inflation
Mining cost inflation is pressuring margins, with total cash costs and AISC rising year over year.
High Risk
Operational Risk
Operational risks include safety concerns, highlighted by the Obuasi fatality, adding execution and ESG risks.
Medium
Jurisdictional Risk
Jurisdictional risks in mining operations could impact stability and profitability.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
The stock's valuation has caught up to fundamentals, raising concerns about overvaluation after a rally.
Medium
Profit Taking
Investors are taking profits after a major rally, leading to stock price declines.
Lower
Gold Price Leverage
While offering leverage to gold prices, the stock carries higher volatility and business risk compared to physical gold.
Lower
Buyback Execution
The proposed buyback is not yet fully executed, creating uncertainty around capital allocation.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AU Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Strategic investment in Thesis Gold
AngloGold Ashanti made a significant strategic investment in Thesis Gold & Silver Inc., acquiring 13.86 million shares for C$38.67 million, signaling confidence in gold-silver projects.
Debt management initiative
The company successfully executed capped cash tender offers for up to US$650 million of its 2028, 2030, and 2040 notes, improving its balance sheet flexibility.
Project development funding
Proceeds from the Thesis Gold investment will support technical studies at the Lawyers-Ranch gold-silver Project, potentially unlocking future production growth.
Industry partnership expansion
The collaboration with Thesis Gold and participation by Centerra Gold in a C$44M financing demonstrates AngloGold's ability to attract mining sector partners.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AU Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$90.87
52W Range Position
55%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$43.44
+109.2% from the low
52-Week High
$129.14
-29.6% from the high
1 Month
-2.79%
3 Month
-1.64%
YTD
+6.2%
1 Year
+88.8%
3Y CAGR
+57.7%
5Y CAGR
+36.9%
10Y CAGR
+19.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AU vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
9.0x
vs 8.8x median
+2% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+11.9%
vs +13.7% median
-13% below peer median
Net Margin
31.1%
vs 30.5% median
+2% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AU AU AngloGold Ashanti Plc | $45.9B | 9.0x | +11.9% | 31.1% | Buy | +62.9% |
NEM NEM Newmont Corporation | $115.0B | 10.1x | +16.2% | 30.5% | Buy | +38.1% |
AEM AEM Agnico Eagle Mines Limited | $83.5B | 12.2x | +15.7% | 37.5% | Buy | +48.9% |
KGC KGC Kinross Gold Corporation | $31.9B | 8.8x | +13.7% | 36.0% | Buy | +70.0% |
GFI GFI Gold Fields Limited | $34.5B | 6.9x | +11.3% | 23.2% | Hold | +53.2% |
EGO EGO Eldorado Gold Corporation | $6.5B | 8.2x | +12.5% | 28.0% | Hold | +59.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AU Dividend and Capital Return
AU returns 4.1% total yield, led by a 4.05% dividend.
Dividend WatchFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
4.05%
Payout Ratio
71.0%
How AU Splits Its Return
Div 4.05%
Dividend 4.05%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.68
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
79.3%
5Y Div CAGR
87.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
505M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.89 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.52 | +515.9% | 0.0% | 4.3% |
| 2024 | $0.41 | +91.3% | 0.0% | 2.5% |
| 2023 | $0.21 | -51.1% | 0.2% | 1.6% |
| 2022 | $0.44 | -18.8% | 0.0% | 2.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsAU Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is AngloGold Ashanti Plc (AU) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
AngloGold Ashanti Plc (AU) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 14 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $148, implying +62.9% from the current price of $91. The bear case scenario is $66 and the bull case is $139.
02What is the AU stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AU is $148 based on 14 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $243 (+167.4% from today), and the low-end target is $42 (-53.8%). The base case model target is $106.
03Is AngloGold Ashanti Plc (AU) stock overvalued in 2026?
AU trades at 9.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for AngloGold Ashanti Plc (AU) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AU in 2026 are: (1) Cost Inflation — Mining cost inflation is pressuring margins, with total cash costs and AISC rising year over year. (2) Operational Risk — Operational risks include safety concerns, highlighted by the Obuasi fatality, adding execution and ESG risks. (3) Jurisdictional Risk — Jurisdictional risks in mining operations could impact stability and profitability. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is AngloGold Ashanti Plc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AU will report consensus revenue of $12.5B (+11.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.70 (-2.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $14.0B in revenue.
06When does AngloGold Ashanti Plc (AU) report its next earnings?
AngloGold Ashanti Plc is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-31. Consensus expects EPS of $2.13 and revenue of $3.3B. Over recent quarters, AU has beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does AngloGold Ashanti Plc generate?
AngloGold Ashanti Plc (AU) generated $4.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 35.8%. AU returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.1% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).