Upside case
Bull case
$91-0.1%
The bull case prices AU at 8x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
AngloGold Ashanti Plc (AU) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
14
analysts
9 bullish · 2 bearish · 14 covering AU
Strong Buy
0
Buy
9
Hold
3
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$133
+46.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$14 – $91
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
14
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
8.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $45.9B
AU price targets
Three scenarios for where AU stock could go
Current
~$91
Confidence
31 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $91
Bear
$14
Base
$156
Bull
$91
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$156+72.0%
At 14x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$14-84.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push AU down roughly 85% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
AngloGold Ashanti Plc
AU · NYSEBasic MaterialsGoldDecember year-end
AngloGold Ashanti is a global gold mining company that operates mines across Africa, the Americas, and Australia. It generates revenue primarily from gold sales — with additional income from silver and sulphuric acid byproducts — through its portfolio of mining operations. The company's competitive advantage lies in its geographically diversified asset base and long-life, low-cost mines that provide operational resilience.
Market Cap
$45.9B
Revenue TTM
$10.4B
Net Income TTM
$2.9B
Net Margin
27.6%
AU Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
18%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
20%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-37.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.88/$0.84
Revenue
$2.0B/$1.8B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.25/$1.31
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.32/$1.34
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.90/$1.98
Revenue
$3.0B/$3.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.88/$0.84 | +4.8% | $2.0B/$1.8B | +6.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.25/$1.31 | -4.6% | $2.4B/$2.4B | +1.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.32/$1.34 | -1.5% | $2.4B/$2.8B | -15.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.90/$1.98 | -4.0% | $3.0B/$3.0B | -0.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$14.0B
+35.0% YoY
FY2
$18.3B
+30.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.48
+31.7% YoY
FY2
$8.93
+19.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.4B
FCF Margin: 32.6%
Next Earnings
May 8, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.21
Expected Revenue
$3.3B
AU beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
AU Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $5.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Spot Revenue
100.0%
+27.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Spot Revenue is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2024 revenue, up 27.2% YoY.
AU Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $83 — implies -10.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
10.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AU
17.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
30% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
AU
17.5x
vs
Basic Materials
22.3x
21% discount
vs AU 5Y Avg P/E
Today
17.5x
vs
5Y Average
19.0x
8% discount
Forward PE
8.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
-56%
Basic Materials
15.2x
-45%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
17.5x
S&P 500
25.1x
-30%
Basic Materials
22.3x
-21%
5Y Avg
19.0x
-8%
PEG Ratio
1.01x
S&P 500
1.72x
-41%
Basic Materials
1.17x
-13%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
-46%
Basic Materials
11.0x
-24%
5Y Avg
7.0x
+18%
Price/FCF
14.8x
S&P 500
21.1x
-30%
Basic Materials
25.6x
-42%
5Y Avg
25.5x
-42%
Price/Sales
4.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+49%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+145%
5Y Avg
2.4x
+96%
Dividend Yield
4.05%
S&P 500
1.87%
+117%
Basic Materials
1.32%
+206%
5Y Avg
2.67%
+52%
| Metric | AU | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg AU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 8.4x | 19.1x-56% | 15.2x-45% | — |
| Trailing PE | 17.5x | 25.1x-30% | 22.3x-21% | 19.0x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.01x | 1.72x-41% | 1.17x-13% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.3x | 15.2x-46% | 11.0x-24% | 7.0x+18% |
| Price/FCF | 14.8x | 21.1x-30% | 25.6x-42% | 25.5x-42% |
| Price/Sales | 4.6x | 3.1x+49% | 1.9x+145% | 2.4x+96% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.05% | 1.87% | 1.32% | 2.67% |
AU trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAU Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
AU generates $3.4B in free cash flow at a 32.6% margin — 35.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 4.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$10.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+62.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
47.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
45.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
27.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.69
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
32.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
35.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
20.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.9B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$492M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
30.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.0%
Dividend
4.0%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.68
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
71.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
508M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAU Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Global Economic & Geopolitical Risk
Escalating global trade wars, tensions in the Middle East, and instability in the Strait of Hormuz can drive up energy prices and erode investor risk appetite. These events can directly affect Australian businesses that rely on fuel and can lead to broader market sell‑offs.
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
Australia’s economy is heavily dependent on exports of iron ore, coal, and natural gas. A post‑boom decline in these commodity prices can squeeze corporate earnings and reduce dividend payouts across the ASX.
High Risk
Company‑Specific Risk (AU)
AngloGold Ashanti faces operational execution challenges and geopolitical/regulatory uncertainty in Africa and South America. Its cost structure relative to peers, sensitivity to gold prices, and reliance on projects like the Obuasi mine add layers of risk beyond commodity price movements.
Medium
Domestic Economic Weakness
A weakening Australian dollar, sluggish business investment, and a slowing housing market can dampen corporate performance. Recent Reserve Bank of Australia rate hikes have also contributed to market volatility.
Lower
Sector Concentration Risk
The ASX is heavily weighted toward financial and mining sectors, which together dominate the S&P/ASX 200. Regulatory changes or economic shocks affecting these sectors can disproportionately impact overall market performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AU Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Global Gold Demand & Emerging Market Growth
AngloGold Ashanti benefits from strong global gold demand and growing consumption in emerging markets, which bolster the company’s revenue and pricing power. These macro drivers support sustained upward pressure on gold prices and the firm’s top‑line growth.
Portfolio Optimization & Cost Discipline
The company’s focus on portfolio optimization, cost discipline, and efficiency programs is expected to enhance production stability and margins. By streamlining operations and reducing operating costs, AngloGold Ashanti can improve profitability even in volatile market conditions.
Upward Gold Price Forecasts & Revenue Growth
Analysts have revised upward their long‑term gold price forecasts, with some projecting revenue estimates to increase significantly. This outlook signals robust future earnings growth for the company.
Strong Leverage to Gold Prices
AngloGold Ashanti’s strong leverage to gold prices provides a natural hedge against price swings, allowing the firm to capture upside when gold prices rise. This pricing power is a key driver of the company’s positive outlook.
New Dividend Policy
The introduction of a new dividend policy adds an attractive income component for investors. This policy enhances shareholder value and reflects the company’s confidence in its cash‑flow generation.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AU Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$90.98
52W Range Position
58%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$38.61
+135.6% from the low
52-Week High
$129.14
-29.5% from the high
1 Month
-10.36%
3 Month
-7.72%
YTD
+6.3%
1 Year
+115.9%
3Y CAGR
+47.5%
5Y CAGR
+33.4%
10Y CAGR
+19.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AU vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
8.4x
vs 9.2x median
-9% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+35.0%
vs +31.7% median
+10% above peer median
Net Margin
27.6%
vs 30.5% median
-10% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AU AU AngloGold Ashanti Plc | $45.9B | 8.4x | +35.0% | 27.6% | Buy | +46.2% |
NEM NEM Newmont Corporation | $120.8B | 10.5x | +35.1% | 30.5% | Buy | +26.1% |
AEM AEM Agnico Eagle Mines Limited | $89.2B | 12.8x | +31.7% | 37.5% | Buy | +33.4% |
KGC KGC Kinross Gold Corporation | $34.5B | 9.2x | +29.7% | 36.0% | Buy | +46.7% |
GFI GFI Gold Fields Limited | $37.4B | 7.1x | +13.2% | 23.2% | Hold | +30.3% |
EGO EGO Eldorado Gold Corporation | $5.8B | 6.9x | +35.8% | 28.0% | Hold | +79.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AU Dividend and Capital Return
AU returns 4.0% total yield, led by a 4.05% dividend.
Dividend WatchFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
4.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
4.05%
Payout Ratio
71.0%
How AU Splits Its Return
Div 4.05%
Dividend 4.05%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.68
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
79.3%
5Y Div CAGR
87.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
508M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.73 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.52 | +515.9% | 0.0% | 4.3% |
| 2024 | $0.41 | +91.3% | 0.0% | 2.5% |
| 2023 | $0.21 | -51.1% | 0.2% | 1.6% |
| 2022 | $0.44 | -18.8% | 0.0% | 2.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsAU Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is AngloGold Ashanti Plc (AU) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
AngloGold Ashanti Plc (AU) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 14 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $133, implying +46.2% from the current price of $91. The bear case scenario is $14 and the bull case is $91.
02What is the AU stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AU is $133 based on 14 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $200 (+119.8% from today), and the low-end target is $95 (+4.4%). The base case model target is $156.
03Is AngloGold Ashanti Plc (AU) stock overvalued in 2026?
AU trades at 8.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for AngloGold Ashanti Plc (AU) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AU in 2026 are: (1) Global Economic & Geopolitical Risk — Escalating global trade wars, tensions in the Middle East, and instability in the Strait of Hormuz can drive up energy prices and erode investor risk appetite. (2) Commodity Price Volatility — Australia’s economy is heavily dependent on exports of iron ore, coal, and natural gas. (3) Company‑Specific Risk (AU) — AngloGold Ashanti faces operational execution challenges and geopolitical/regulatory uncertainty in Africa and South America. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is AngloGold Ashanti Plc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AU will report consensus revenue of $14.0B (+35.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.48 (+31.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $18.3B in revenue.
06When does AngloGold Ashanti Plc (AU) report its next earnings?
AngloGold Ashanti Plc is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-08. Consensus expects EPS of $2.21 and revenue of $3.3B. Over recent quarters, AU has beaten EPS estimates 18% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does AngloGold Ashanti Plc generate?
AngloGold Ashanti Plc (AU) generated $3.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 32.6%. AU returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.0% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).