Upside case
Bull case
$43+62.7%
KGC would need investors to value it at roughly 14x earnings — about 5x more generous than today's 9x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
29
analysts
17 bullish · 3 bearish · 29 covering KGC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
17
Hold
9
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$45
+70.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$21 – $43
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
29
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
8.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $31.9B
KGC price targets
Three scenarios for where KGC stock could go
Current
~$27
Confidence
49 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $27
Bear
$21
Base
$33
Bull
$43
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$33+23.5%
At 11x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$21-22.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push KGC down roughly 22% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Kinross Gold Corporation
KGC · NYSEBasic MaterialsGoldDecember year-end
Kinross Gold is a senior gold mining company that acquires, develops, and operates gold mines across the Americas and West Africa. It generates revenue primarily from gold sales — which account for over 90% of total revenue — with the remainder coming from silver byproduct sales. The company's competitive advantage lies in its geographically diversified portfolio of long-life mines and its operational expertise in large-scale, open-pit mining.
Market Cap
$31.9B
Revenue TTM
$7.9B
Net Income TTM
$2.9B
Net Margin
36.0%
KGC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+25.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.44/$0.33
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.44/$0.39
Revenue
$1.8B/$2.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.67/$0.55
Revenue
$2.0B/$2.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.71/$0.68
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.44/$0.33 | +33.3% | $1.7B/$1.7B | +0.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.44/$0.39 | +12.8% | $1.8B/$2.0B | -13.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.67/$0.55 | +21.8% | $2.0B/$2.1B | -2.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.71/$0.68 | +4.4% | $2.4B/$2.4B | -1.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$9.0B
+13.7% YoY
FY2
$10.1B
+12.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.43
+2.3% YoY
FY2
$2.56
+5.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.0B
FCF Margin: 38.0%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.71
Expected Revenue
$2.3B
KGC beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
KGC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $7.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
United States
35.5%
+34.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
United States is the largest reported region at 35.5%, up 34.7% YoY.
KGC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $50 — implies +89.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
89.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
KGC
13.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
45% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
KGC
13.4x
vs
Basic Materials
23.6x
43% discount
vs KGC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
13.4x
vs
5Y Average
19.5x
31% discount
Forward PE
8.8x
S&P 500
18.8x
-53%
Basic Materials
14.9x
-41%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
13.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
-45%
Basic Materials
23.6x
-43%
5Y Avg
19.5x
-31%
PEG Ratio
1.08x
S&P 500
1.66x
-35%
Basic Materials
1.23x
-12%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
7.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
-52%
Basic Materials
11.0x
-34%
5Y Avg
7.4x
-2%
Price/FCF
12.4x
S&P 500
20.7x
-40%
Basic Materials
29.0x
-57%
5Y Avg
15.7x
-21%
Price/Sales
4.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+44%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+137%
5Y Avg
2.6x
+69%
Dividend Yield
0.47%
S&P 500
1.91%
-75%
Basic Materials
1.41%
-66%
5Y Avg
1.74%
-73%
| Metric | KGC | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg KGC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 8.8x | 18.8x-53% | 14.9x-41% | — |
| Trailing PE | 13.4x | 24.4x-45% | 23.6x-43% | 19.5x-31% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.08x | 1.66x-35% | 1.23x-12% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.2x | 15.2x-52% | 11.0x-34% | 7.4x |
| Price/FCF | 12.4x | 20.7x-40% | 29.0x-57% | 15.7x-21% |
| Price/Sales | 4.5x | 3.1x+44% | 1.9x+137% | 2.6x+69% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.47% | 1.91% | 1.41% | 1.74% |
KGC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolKGC Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
KGC generates $3.0B in free cash flow at a 38.0% margin — 29.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$7.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+42.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
52.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
48.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
36.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.38
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
38.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
29.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
23.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.8B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$975M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
33.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.4%
Dividend
0.5%
Buyback
1.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$611M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.13
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
6.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageKGC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Operational Risks
High costs and operational risks challenge strong recent financials.
Medium
Project Execution
Future growth heavily depends on the success of the Great Bear project.
Medium
Gold Price Exposure
Kinross offers leveraged exposure to gold prices, making it vulnerable to price volatility.
Lower
Forward-Looking Statements
Forward-looking information contains uncertainties and may not materialize as expected.
Medium
Cost Management
Disciplined management is required to mitigate high cost pressures.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why KGC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Operational excellence focus
Kinross is focused on maximizing free cash flow through operational excellence and financial discipline, which is a key driver for investors.
Strong financial reporting
The company has a clear schedule for financial reporting, including quarterly and annual results, providing transparency and confidence to investors.
ESG and sustainability commitment
Kinross emphasizes ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) factors and sustainability, which are increasingly important to investors.
Upcoming mineral reserve update
The company plans to release an updated mineral reserve and resource statement, which could positively impact investor sentiment.
Market guidance clarity
Kinross provides clear future guidance, including full-year 2026 expectations, helping investors make informed decisions.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
KGC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$26.67
52W Range Position
49%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$14.71
+81.3% from the low
52-Week High
$39.11
-31.8% from the high
1 Month
-6.50%
3 Month
-7.83%
YTD
-5.8%
1 Year
+71.8%
3Y CAGR
+79.1%
5Y CAGR
+33.0%
10Y CAGR
+18.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
KGC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
8.8x
vs 13.2x median
-34% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+13.7%
vs +15.7% median
-13% below peer median
Net Margin
36.0%
vs 51.4% median
-30% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KGC KGC Kinross Gold Corporation | $31.9B | 8.8x | +13.7% | 36.0% | Buy | +70.0% |
NEM NEM Newmont Corporation | $115.0B | 10.1x | +16.2% | 30.5% | Buy | +38.1% |
AEM AEM Agnico Eagle Mines Limited | $83.5B | 12.2x | +15.7% | 37.5% | Buy | +48.9% |
WPM WPM Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. | $55.7B | 22.7x | +15.7% | 65.5% | Buy | +38.7% |
FNV FNV Franco-Nevada Corporation | $42.3B | 24.4x | +14.3% | 65.1% | Buy | +36.4% |
AGI AGI Alamos Gold Inc. | $15.3B | 13.2x | +14.3% | 51.4% | Buy | +65.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
KGC Dividend and Capital Return
KGC returns capital mainly through $611M/year in buybacks (1.9% buyback yield), with a modest 0.47% dividend — combining for 2.4% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.9%
Dividend Yield
0.47%
Payout Ratio
6.4%
How KGC Splits Its Return
Div 0.47%
Buyback 1.9%
Dividend 0.47%Buybacks 1.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.13
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
1.4%
5Y Div CAGR
15.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$611M
Estimated Shares Retired
23M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.2B
At 1.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.13 | -16.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% |
| 2024 | $0.15 | +25.0% | 0.0% | 1.3% |
| 2023 | $0.12 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% |
| 2022 | $0.12 | +0.0% | 5.7% | 8.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsKGC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 29 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $45, implying +70.0% from the current price of $27. The bear case scenario is $21 and the bull case is $43.
02What is the KGC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for KGC is $45 based on 29 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $54 (+102.5% from today), and the low-end target is $37 (+38.7%). The base case model target is $33.
03Is Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) stock overvalued in 2026?
KGC trades at 8.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for KGC in 2026 are: (1) Operational Risks — High costs and operational risks challenge strong recent financials. (2) Project Execution — Future growth heavily depends on the success of the Great Bear project. (3) Gold Price Exposure — Kinross offers leveraged exposure to gold prices, making it vulnerable to price volatility. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Kinross Gold Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates KGC will report consensus revenue of $9.0B (+13.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.43 (+2.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $10.1B in revenue.
06When does Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) report its next earnings?
Kinross Gold Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29. Consensus expects EPS of $0.71 and revenue of $2.3B. Over recent quarters, KGC has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Kinross Gold Corporation generate?
Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) generated $3.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 38.0%. KGC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.5% yield) and share repurchases ($611M TTM).