Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing KGC more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
28
analysts
16 bullish · 3 bearish · 28 covering KGC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
9
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$42
+37.3% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
28
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
9.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $36.9B
KGC price targets
Three scenarios for where KGC stock could go
Current
~$31
Confidence
49 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $31
Base
$62
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$62+102.1%
At 20x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Kinross Gold Corporation
KGC · NYSEBasic MaterialsGoldDecember year-end
Kinross Gold is a senior gold mining company that acquires, develops, and operates gold mines across the Americas and West Africa. It generates revenue primarily from gold sales — which account for over 90% of total revenue — with the remainder coming from silver byproduct sales. The company's competitive advantage lies in its geographically diversified portfolio of long-life mines and its operational expertise in large-scale, open-pit mining.
Market Cap
$36.9B
Revenue TTM
$7.9B
Net Income TTM
$2.9B
Net Margin
36.0%
KGC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+25.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.44/$0.33
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.44/$0.39
Revenue
$1.8B/$2.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.67/$0.55
Revenue
$2.0B/$2.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.71/$0.68
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.44/$0.33 | +33.3% | $1.7B/$1.7B | +0.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.44/$0.39 | +12.8% | $1.8B/$2.0B | -13.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.67/$0.55 | +21.8% | $2.0B/$2.1B | -2.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.71/$0.68 | +4.4% | $2.4B/$2.4B | -1.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$10.3B
+29.7% YoY
FY2
$12.4B
+20.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.17
+33.5% YoY
FY2
$4.02
+26.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.0B
FCF Margin: 38.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
KGC beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
KGC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $7.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
United States
35.5%
+34.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
United States is the largest reported region at 35.5%, up 34.7% YoY.
KGC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $40 — implies +34.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
34.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
KGC
15.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
39% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
KGC
15.5x
vs
Basic Materials
22.9x
32% discount
vs KGC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
15.5x
vs
5Y Average
19.5x
21% discount
Forward PE
9.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
-48%
Basic Materials
15.4x
-36%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
15.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
-39%
Basic Materials
22.9x
-32%
5Y Avg
19.5x
-21%
PEG Ratio
1.25x
S&P 500
1.75x
-28%
Basic Materials
1.22x
+3%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
-45%
Basic Materials
11.4x
-26%
5Y Avg
7.4x
+13%
Price/FCF
14.4x
S&P 500
21.3x
-33%
Basic Materials
27.5x
-48%
5Y Avg
15.7x
-8%
Price/Sales
5.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
+64%
Basic Materials
2.0x
+161%
5Y Avg
2.6x
+95%
Dividend Yield
0.41%
S&P 500
1.88%
-78%
Basic Materials
1.37%
-70%
5Y Avg
1.74%
-76%
| Metric | KGC | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg KGC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 9.8x | 19.1x-48% | 15.4x-36% | — |
| Trailing PE | 15.5x | 25.2x-39% | 22.9x-32% | 19.5x-21% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.25x | 1.75x-28% | 1.22x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.4x | 15.3x-45% | 11.4x-26% | 7.4x+13% |
| Price/FCF | 14.4x | 21.3x-33% | 27.5x-48% | 15.7x |
| Price/Sales | 5.1x | 3.1x+64% | 2.0x+161% | 2.6x+95% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.41% | 1.88% | 1.37% | 1.74% |
KGC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolKGC Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
KGC generates $3.0B in free cash flow at a 38.0% margin — 29.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$7.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+42.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
52.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
48.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
36.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.38
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
38.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
29.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
23.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.8B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$975M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
33.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.1%
Dividend
0.4%
Buyback
1.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$611M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.13
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
6.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageKGC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Gold Price Volatility
KGC’s earnings and cash flow are tightly linked to the spot price of gold. A 10% drop in gold prices can erode operating margins and reduce net income, while a rally can boost cash generation. The company’s share price remains highly leveraged to gold price movements, especially after recent rallies.
High Risk
Geopolitical & Operational Risks
Kinross operates mines in the Americas and West Africa, exposing it to permitting challenges, environmental obligations, labor disputes, and political instability. Currency fluctuations and differing tax regimes further add to profitability risk. These factors can delay production or increase operating costs.
Medium
Operating Costs & Margins
All-in sustaining costs (AISC) drive margin health; fluctuations in ore grades, production volumes, and input costs can compress profitability. Currency exchange rates and rising input prices directly impact AISC, potentially eroding margins if not controlled.
Medium
Exploration & Development Risks
Capital invested in exploration and development carries execution risk; projects may fail to reach commercial production or exceed budgets. Delays or cost overruns can reduce future growth prospects and strain cash flow.
Lower
Market Sentiment & Momentum
KGC is viewed as undervalued by some metrics, yet recent price swings and earnings revisions have dampened momentum. Analyst warnings of downside risk can deter momentum investors, limiting upside potential.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why KGC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Exceptional Earnings Growth
Kinross Gold’s earnings per share surged 235% year‑over‑year in the latest quarter, with a three‑year EPS CAGR of 100.4%. Over the past year, EPS grew 151.9%, far outpacing the Metals and Mining industry average.
Robust Revenue Expansion
Revenue rose 42.9% YoY in the most recent quarter and has averaged a 15.3% annual growth rate over the past five years, underscoring consistent top‑line momentum.
Strong Profitability & Margins
The company’s net profit margin climbed to 33.9% from 18.4% last year, while ROE stands at 28.4% and ROIC at 21.75%, placing Kinross in the upper echelon of its sector.
Healthy Cash Generation
Free cash flow represents 26.6% of revenue, and operating cash flow is $2.46 for every dollar of earnings, highlighting robust cash conversion.
Gold Market Tailwinds & Production Stability
As a gold producer, Kinross benefits from the ongoing gold bull market; management projects stable production through 2028, offering leveraged upside as gold prices rise.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
KGC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$30.78
52W Range Position
68%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$13.28
+131.8% from the low
52-Week High
$39.11
-21.3% from the high
1 Month
-1.85%
3 Month
-4.08%
YTD
+8.8%
1 Year
+102.5%
3Y CAGR
+79.6%
5Y CAGR
+32.3%
10Y CAGR
+18.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
KGC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
9.8x
vs 14.9x median
-34% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+29.7%
vs +35.1% median
-15% below peer median
Net Margin
36.0%
vs 51.4% median
-30% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KGC KGC Kinross Gold Corporation | $36.9B | 9.8x | +29.7% | 36.0% | Buy | +37.3% |
NEM NEM Newmont Corporation | $127.5B | 11.0x | +35.1% | 30.5% | Buy | +19.5% |
AEM AEM Agnico Eagle Mines Limited | $95.1B | 13.6x | +31.7% | 37.5% | Buy | +25.2% |
WPM WPM Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. | $61.1B | 24.8x | +42.4% | 63.6% | Buy | +13.3% |
FNV FNV Franco-Nevada Corporation | $45.2B | 27.1x | +37.5% | 61.1% | Hold | +17.4% |
AGI AGI Alamos Gold Inc. | $17.6B | 14.9x | +31.8% | 51.4% | Buy | +29.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
KGC Dividend and Capital Return
KGC returns capital mainly through $611M/year in buybacks (1.8% buyback yield), with a modest 0.44% dividend — combining for 2.2% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.8%
Dividend Yield
0.44%
Payout Ratio
6.4%
How KGC Splits Its Return
Div 0.44%
Buyback 1.8%
Dividend 0.44%Buybacks 1.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.13
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
1.4%
5Y Div CAGR
15.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$611M
Estimated Shares Retired
20M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.2B
At 1.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.13 | -16.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% |
| 2024 | $0.15 | +25.0% | 0.0% | 1.3% |
| 2023 | $0.12 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% |
| 2022 | $0.12 | +0.0% | 5.7% | 8.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsKGC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 28 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $42, implying +37.3% from the current price of $31.
02What is the KGC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for KGC is $42 based on 28 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $54 (+75.4% from today), and the low-end target is $33 (+7.2%). The base case model target is $62.
03Is Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) stock overvalued in 2026?
KGC trades at 9.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for KGC in 2026 are: (1) Gold Price Volatility — KGC’s earnings and cash flow are tightly linked to the spot price of gold. (2) Geopolitical & Operational Risks — Kinross operates mines in the Americas and West Africa, exposing it to permitting challenges, environmental obligations, labor disputes, and political instability. (3) Operating Costs & Margins — All-in sustaining costs (AISC) drive margin health; fluctuations in ore grades, production volumes, and input costs can compress profitability. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Kinross Gold Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates KGC will report consensus revenue of $10.3B (+29.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.17 (+33.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $12.4B in revenue.
06When does Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for KGC is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Kinross Gold Corporation generate?
Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) generated $3.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 38.0%. KGC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.4% yield) and share repurchases ($611M TTM).