Operating cash flow remains resilient, reaching $190 million in 2026Q1, which supports an aggressive capital return strategy including $75 million in quarterly share repurchases.
| Metric | TTM | Dec'25 | Dec'24 | Dec'23 | Dec'22 | Dec'21 | Dec'20 | Dec'19 | Dec'18 | Dec'17 | Dec'16 | Dec'15 | Dec'14 | Dec'13 | Dec'12 | Dec'11 | Dec'10 | Dec'09 | Dec'08 | Dec'07 | Dec'06 | Dec'05 | Dec'04 | Dec'03 |
|---|
| Cash from Operations | 362M | 259M | 47M | 461M | -2.48B | -1.94B | -853M | -509M | 462M | 433M | -141M | -52M | 577M | 244M | -165M | 675.62M | 103.99M | 279.17M | 426.99M | 385.85M | 261.57M | 175.81M | -44.58M | 200.03M |
| Operating CF Growth % | 361.19% | 451.06% | -89.8% | 118.6% | -27.98% | -127.08% | -67.58% | -210.17% | 6.7% | 407.09% | -171.15% | -109.01% | 136.48% | 247.88% | -124.42% | 549.7% | -62.75% | -34.62% | 10.66% | 47.51% | 48.78% | 494.37% | -122.29% | - |
| Operating CF / Revenue % | 38.07% | 32.87% | 5.77% | 45.42% | -362.43% | -277.51% | -78.69% | -55.09% | 46.81% | 26.23% | -10.22% | -2.66% | 33.18% | 19.33% | -21.63% | 34.63% | 6.55% | 30.44% | 77.19% | -127.93% | 81.22% | 59.69% | -12.81% | 39.05% |
| Net Income | 415M | 503M | 376M | 761M | 137M | 419M | 368M | 137M | 521M | 730M | 881M | 1.06B | 1.09B | 808M | 110M | 775.62M | 548.91M | 96.03M | 68.88M | -303.27M | 159.73M | 188.45M | 182.79M | 214.52M |
| Depreciation & Amortization | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11M | 12M | 13M | -35M | -31M | -46M | -34M | -25M | -16M | -8M | 4M | 18.26B | 46.34B | 22B | 2.4B | 2.65M | 6.08M | 7.03M | 8.82M | 9.12M |
| Stock-Based Compensation | 6M | -34M | 0 | 0 | 39M | 27M | 25M | 21M | 19M | 16M | 13M | 10M | 10M | 8M | 7M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deferred Taxes | 0 | 0 | -4M | -156M | -3M | -38M | 58M | 65M | 74M | 250M | 19M | 300M | 347M | 177M | -35M | 385.75M | 111.76M | -180.39M | 43.12M | -172.14M | 11.6M | -4.3M | 34.43M | 12.78M |
| Other Non-Cash Items | -516M | -135M | -215M | -8M | -1.34B | -2.36B | -975M | 3M | 32M | -26M | -27M | 31M | 49M | -29M | -78M | -577.73M | 136.06M | 450.92M | -64.45M | 720.9M | -65.2M | 367K | -374.17M | -141.22M |
| Working Capital Changes | 0 | -75M | -110M | -136M | -1.32B | 2M | -342M | -700M | -165M | -284M | -720M | -471M | -185M | -554M | -678M | 55.73M | -741.08M | -142.04M | 307.24M | 135.06M | 143.3M | -22.76M | 94.73M | 104.83M |
| Cash from Investing | 447M | 641M | 780M | 286M | 1.74B | 23M | 788M | 1.17B | 297M | 345M | 1.08B | 994M | -96M | 681M | 943M | 561.35M | 677.29M | -1.4B | -649.62M | -664.39M | -228.46M | -153.55M | 22.27M | -145.3M |
| Capital Expenditures | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -62.11M | 0 |
| Acquisitions | -145M | 0 | 0 | -198M | -25M | -79M | -19M | -233M | 0 | 95M | -435M | -800M | 0 | 0 | -91M | 0 | 0 | -459M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39.78M | 0 |
| Purchase of Investments | -1.79B | 7M | -1.35B | -1.43B | -459M | -1.65B | -1.47B | -1.73B | -2.21B | -2.55B | -1.65B | -2.58B | -2.8B | -1.97B | -1.65B | -2.31B | -2.46B | -2.68B | -1.27B | -1.45B | -883.22M | -956.8M | -813.49M | -902.93M |
| Sale/Maturity of Investments | 2.3B | 0 | 0 | 1.74B | 2.12B | 1.69B | 2.19B | 2.94B | 2.37B | 2.6B | 2.54B | 3.9B | 2.29B | 1.91B | 2.05B | 2.09B | 2.7B | 1.74B | 622.41M | 786.59M | 864.53M | 803.25M | 795.97M | 753.95M |
| Other Investing | 89M | 634M | 2.13B | 172M | 81M | 56M | 84M | 187M | 133M | 206M | 620M | 469M | 419M | 742M | 637M | 778.99M | 443.78M | 9.35M | -728.15B | -243.28B | -209.77M | -213.56M | 62.11M | 3.69M |
| Cash from Financing | -660M | -616M | -983M | -670M | 612M | 1.96B | 183M | -584M | -795M | -766M | -978M | -847M | -585M | -878M | -856M | -1.13B | -717.43M | 1.15B | 229.34M | 281.44M | -35.07M | -31.94M | 6.09M | -35M |
| Dividends Paid | -68M | -68M | -68M | -67M | -64M | -66M | -69M | -74M | -71M | -70M | -69M | -72M | -76M | -75M | -69M | -33.03M | -33.19M | -22.33M | -16.02M | -11.03M | -10.46M | -9.01M | -4.56M | -35M |
| Share Repurchases | -455M | -500M | -502M | -199M | -500M | -496M | -446M | -500M | -500M | -501M | -308M | -562M | -590M | -264M | -24M | -23M | -10M | -3.68M | 0 | -9.35M | -171.06M | -19.01M | -5.99M | 0 |
| Stock Issued | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 173M | 0 | 0 | 1.19B | 248.97M | 304.64M | 501K | 356K | 0 | 0 |
| Debt Issuance (Net) | -3M | -1000K | -1000K | -1000K | 1000K | 1000K | 1000K | 1000K | -1000K | -1000K | -1000K | -1000K | 1000K | -1000K | -1000K | -1000K | -1000K | -1000K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1000K | 0 |
| Other Financing | -125M | -32M | -38M | -248M | -57M | 0 | -42M | -182M | -123M | -165M | 12M | -209M | -395M | -1M | -727M | -1.5M | -2.49M | -683K | -4.04M | -2.83M | 145.95M | -4.27M | 19.34M | 0 |
| Net Change in Cash | 133M | 262M | -158M | 79M | -135M | 44M | 115M | 79M | -40M | 17M | -48M | 91M | -109M | 46M | -77M | 106.16M | 63.05M | 31.83M | 4.26M | 3.26M | -1.41M | -10.79M | -15.39M | 22.92M |
| Exchange Rate Effect | -16M | -22M | -2M | 2M | -8M | -2M | -3M | 3M | -4M | 5M | -5M | -4M | -5M | -1M | 1M | 2.14M | -798K | 1.32M | -2.45M | 366K | 548K | -1.11M | 832K | 3.19M |
| Cash at Beginning | 389M | 126M | 286M | 207M | 342M | 298M | 183M | 104M | 144M | 127M | 166M | 75M | 184M | 138M | 215M | 108.39M | 44.13M | 12.3M | 8.05M | 4.79M | 6.19M | 16.98M | 32.37M | 9.45M |
| Cash at End | 312M | 388M | 128M | 286M | 207M | 342M | 298M | 183M | 104M | 144M | 118M | 166M | 75M | 184M | 138M | 214.54M | 107.18M | 44.13M | 12.3M | 8.05M | 4.79M | 6.19M | 16.98M | 32.37M |
| Free Cash Flow | 362M | 259M | 47M | 461M | -2.45B | -1.94B | -853M | -509M | 462M | 433M | -141M | -52M | 577M | 244M | -165M | 675.62M | 103.99M | 279.17M | 426.99M | 385.85M | 261.57M | 175.81M | -106.69M | 200.03M |
| FCF Growth % | 74.04% | 451.06% | -89.8% | 118.79% | -26.69% | -127.08% | -67.58% | -210.17% | 6.7% | 407.09% | -171.15% | -109.01% | 136.48% | 247.88% | -124.42% | 549.7% | -62.75% | -34.62% | 10.66% | 47.51% | 48.78% | 264.79% | -153.33% | - |
| FCF Margin % | 38.07% | 32.87% | 5.77% | 45.42% | -358.77% | -277.51% | -78.69% | -55.09% | 46.81% | 26.23% | -10.22% | -2.66% | 33.18% | 19.33% | -21.63% | 34.63% | 6.55% | 30.44% | 77.19% | -127.93% | 81.22% | 59.69% | -30.67% | 39.05% |
| FCF per Share | 7.97 | 5.24 | 0.87 | 7.73 | -38.4 | -26.07 | -9.9 | -5.08 | 4.15 | 3.54 | -1.05 | -0.35 | 3.32 | 1.3 | -0.87 | 3.64 | 0.55 | 2.16 | 4.85 | 5.67 | 3.52 | 2.36 | -1.42 | 2.67 |
Municipal credit cycle volatility
As reported in recent financial filings, Assured Guaranty generated $190 million in operating cash flow during 2026Q1, demonstrating a strong ability to convert underwriting activities into liquidity despite the inherent lumpiness of premium collections and the long-tail nature of the company's underlying credit guarantee obligations.
The significant variance in operating cash flow, ranging from a $74 million outflow in 2024Q1 to a $203 million inflow in 2023Q4, suggests that cash generation is highly sensitive to the timing of large-scale municipal bond issuances and refunding cycles. Investors should monitor whether this volatility reflects structural shifts in demand or merely the episodic nature of the company's core infrastructure and structured finance business.
Based on the provided quarterly data, Assured Guaranty consistently utilizes its investment portfolio as a liquidity buffer, evidenced by the $434 million in sales against $313 million in purchases during 2026Q1, which highlights the company's active management of its massive capital base to meet obligations.
The frequent recycling of capital between purchases and sales suggests that the company maintains a highly liquid investment strategy to support its insurance operations. This active portfolio management appears to be a critical mechanism for balancing the timing mismatch between premium inflows and potential long-term claims payments.
According to the company's historical cash flow statements, Assured Guaranty has maintained a consistent pattern of returning capital to shareholders, with buybacks totaling $75 million in 2026Q1, even as the company navigates the complex cash requirements of its long-dated insurance liabilities and ongoing infrastructure investment commitments.
The sustained level of share repurchases, often exceeding $100 million per quarter, indicates that management views the current market valuation as a significant discount to the company's intrinsic value. This capital allocation strategy appears to be prioritized alongside the maintenance of a fortress balance sheet, suggesting high confidence in the long-term durability of the existing premium reserve base.
As indicated by the OCF/NI ratios, which fluctuated from 2.16 in 2026Q1 to -0.68 in 2024Q1, there is a notable disconnect between reported net income and actual cash generation, largely driven by non-cash accounting adjustments and the timing of premium recognition within the company's financial statements.
The extreme volatility in the OCF/NI ratio suggests that headline net income is an unreliable proxy for the company's underlying cash-generating capacity. Analysts should focus on the cash flow statement to understand the true economic impact of the company's underwriting and investment activities, as non-cash fair value adjustments frequently obscure the core operational reality.
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying AGO stock.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) generated $259.0M in net cash from operating activities in 2025. This reflects the cash generated directly from core business operations.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) generated $259.0M in free cash flow in 2025. Free cash flow is the cash left over after capital expenditures, which can be used to pay dividends, repurchase shares, or pay down debt.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) spent $0.0M on capital expenditures in 2025. CapEx represents the cash invested in physical assets like property, plant, and equipment to maintain or grow the business.
In 2025, Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) returned $68.0M to shareholders via cash dividends and spent $500.0M on share repurchases. This shows the company's commitment to returning capital to its equity investors.