Revenue growth is volatile, swinging from -46% to +64% over the past year, with 2026Q2 down 29% year-over-year, while underwriting margins remain strong with a combined ratio of 75.1% in 2026Q2.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) annual income statement — 23-year revenue, gross profit & net income history
| Metric | TTM | Dec'25 | Dec'24 | Dec'23 | Dec'22 | Dec'21 | Dec'20 | Dec'19 | Dec'18 | Dec'17 | Dec'16 | Dec'15 | Dec'14 | Dec'13 | Dec'12 | Dec'11 | Dec'10 | Dec'09 | Dec'08 | Dec'07 | Dec'06 | Dec'05 | Dec'04 | Dec'03 |
|---|
| Revenue | 870M | 788M | 814M | 1.01B | 684M | 698M | 1.08B | 924M | 987M | 1.65B | 1.38B | 1.96B | 1.74B | 1.26B | 763M | 1.95B | 1.59B | 917.16M | 553.19M | -301.6M | 322.06M | 294.53M | 347.9M | 512.3M |
| Revenue Growth % | -13.6% | -3.19% | -19.8% | 48.39% | -2.01% | -35.61% | 17.32% | -6.38% | -40.22% | 19.64% | -29.41% | 12.42% | 37.8% | 65.4% | -60.89% | 22.94% | 73.03% | 65.8% | 283.42% | -193.65% | 9.34% | -15.34% | -32.09% | - |
| Medical Costs & Claims | 22M | 56M | -6M | 175M | 30M | -206M | 219M | 111M | 80M | 407M | 313M | 444M | 151M | 166M | 518M | 465M | 434M | 567.97M | 265.76M | 49.02M | 51.73M | 114.87M | 82.9M | 209.5M |
| Medical Cost Ratio % | 2.53% | 7.11% | -0.74% | 17.24% | 4.39% | -29.51% | 20.2% | 12.01% | 8.11% | 24.65% | 22.68% | 22.71% | 8.68% | 13.15% | 67.89% | 23.83% | 27.35% | 61.93% | 48.04% | -16.25% | 16.06% | 39% | 23.83% | 40.89% |
| Gross Profit | 848M | 732M | 820M | 840M | 654M | 904M | 865M | 813M | 907M | 1.24B | 1.07B | 1.51B | 1.59B | 1.1B | 245M | 1.49B | 1.15B | 349.19M | 287.43M | -350.63M | 270.33M | 179.67M | 265M | 302.8M |
| Gross Margin % | 97.47% | 92.89% | 100.74% | 82.76% | 95.61% | 129.51% | 79.8% | 87.99% | 91.89% | 75.35% | 77.32% | 77.29% | 91.32% | 86.85% | 32.11% | 76.17% | 72.65% | 38.07% | 51.96% | 116.25% | 83.94% | 61% | 76.17% | 59.11% |
| Gross Profit Growth % | - | -10.73% | -2.38% | 28.44% | -27.65% | 4.51% | 6.4% | -10.36% | -27.09% | 16.59% | -29.38% | -4.85% | 44.89% | 347.35% | -83.51% | 28.88% | 230.19% | 21.49% | 181.98% | -229.7% | 50.46% | -32.2% | -12.48% | - |
| Operating Expenses | 465M | 70M | 332M | 172M | 506M | 427M | 452M | 349M | 327M | 253M | 50M | 80M | 57M | -46M | 113M | 457M | 619M | 232.26M | 175.09M | 112.4M | 80.35M | -49.95M | 31.7M | 56.6M |
| OpEx / Revenue % | 53.45% | 8.88% | 40.79% | 16.95% | 73.98% | 61.17% | 41.7% | 37.77% | 33.13% | 15.32% | 3.62% | 4.09% | 3.28% | -3.65% | 14.81% | 23.42% | 39% | 25.32% | 31.65% | -37.27% | 24.95% | -16.96% | 9.11% | 11.05% |
| Depreciation & Amortization | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11M | 12M | 13M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.65M | 6.08M | 7.03M | 8.82M | 9.12M |
| Combined Ratio % | 55.98% | 15.99% | 40.05% | 34.19% | 78.36% | 31.66% | 61.9% | 49.78% | 41.24% | 39.98% | 26.3% | 26.8% | 11.96% | 9.51% | 82.7% | 47.26% | 66.35% | 87.25% | 79.69% | -53.52% | 41.01% | 22.04% | 32.94% | 51.94% |
| Operating Income | 383M | 662M | 488M | 668M | 148M | 477M | 413M | 464M | 580M | 991M | 1.02B | 1.43B | 1.53B | 1.14B | 132M | 1.03B | 534M | 116.93M | 112.33M | -463.02M | 189.97M | 229.62M | 233.3M | 246.2M |
| Operating Margin % | 44.02% | 84.01% | 59.95% | 65.81% | 21.64% | 68.34% | 38.1% | 50.22% | 58.76% | 60.02% | 73.7% | 73.2% | 88.04% | 90.49% | 17.3% | 52.74% | 33.65% | 12.75% | 20.31% | 153.52% | 58.99% | 77.96% | 67.06% | 48.06% |
| Operating Income Growth % | - | 35.66% | -26.95% | 351.35% | -68.97% | 15.5% | -10.99% | -20% | -41.47% | -2.56% | -28.93% | -6.53% | 34.06% | 765.15% | -87.17% | 92.7% | 356.68% | 4.1% | 124.26% | -343.73% | -17.27% | -1.58% | -5.24% | - |
| EBITDA | 449M | 751M | 579M | 758M | 159M | 489M | 426M | 553M | 674M | 1.09B | 1.12B | 1.53B | 1.62B | 1.22B | 224M | 1.13B | 634M | 179.72M | 135.61M | -460.38M | 196.05M | 236.65M | 242.13M | 255.32M |
| EBITDA Margin % | 51.61% | 95.3% | 71.13% | 74.68% | 23.25% | 70.06% | 39.3% | 59.85% | 68.29% | 65.9% | 81.09% | 78.36% | 93.33% | 96.99% | 29.36% | 57.82% | 39.95% | 19.59% | 24.51% | 152.64% | 60.87% | 80.35% | 69.6% | 49.84% |
| Interest Expense | 88M | 89M | 91M | 90M | 81M | 87M | 85M | 89M | 94M | 97M | 102M | 101M | 92M | 82M | 92M | 99M | 100M | 62.78M | 23.28M | 23.53M | 13.77M | 13.52M | 10.7M | 5.7M |
| Non-Operating Income | -66M | -89M | -91M | -90M | -81M | -87M | -85M | -89M | -94M | -97M | -102M | -101M | -92M | -82M | -92M | -99M | -100M | -62.78M | -23.28M | -23.53M | -13.77M | -13.52M | -10.7M | -5.7M |
| Pretax Income | 414M | 662M | 488M | 668M | 148M | 477M | 413M | 464M | 580M | 991M | 1.02B | 1.43B | 1.53B | 1.14B | 132M | 1.03B | 534M | 116.93M | 112.33M | -463.02M | 189.97M | 229.62M | 233.3M | 246.2M |
| Pretax Margin % | 47.59% | 84.01% | 59.95% | 65.81% | 21.64% | 68.34% | 38.1% | 50.22% | 58.76% | 60.02% | 73.7% | 73.2% | 88.04% | 90.49% | 17.3% | 52.74% | 33.65% | 12.75% | 20.31% | 153.52% | 58.99% | 77.96% | 67.06% | 48.06% |
| Income Tax | 37M | 119M | 96M | -93M | 11M | 58M | 45M | 63M | 59M | 261M | 136M | 375M | 443M | 334M | 22M | 256M | 50M | 32.11M | 43.45M | -159.75M | 30.24M | 41.17M | 50.5M | 31.7M |
| Effective Tax Rate % | 8.94% | 17.98% | 19.67% | -13.92% | 7.43% | 12.16% | 10.9% | 13.58% | 10.17% | 26.34% | 13.37% | 26.21% | 28.94% | 29.25% | 16.67% | 24.88% | 9.36% | 27.46% | 38.68% | 34.5% | 15.92% | 17.93% | 21.65% | 12.88% |
| Net Income | 351M | 503M | 376M | 739M | 124M | 389M | 362M | 402M | 521M | 730M | 881M | 1.06B | 1.09B | 808M | 110M | 773M | 484M | 85.98M | 68.88M | -303.27M | 159.73M | 188.45M | 182.8M | 214.5M |
| Net Margin % | 40.34% | 63.83% | 46.19% | 72.81% | 18.13% | 55.73% | 33.39% | 43.51% | 52.79% | 44.22% | 63.84% | 54.02% | 62.56% | 64.03% | 14.42% | 39.62% | 30.5% | 9.37% | 12.45% | 100.55% | 49.6% | 63.98% | 52.54% | 41.87% |
| Net Income Growth % | -25% | 33.78% | -49.12% | 495.97% | -68.12% | 7.46% | -9.95% | -22.84% | -28.63% | -17.14% | -16.57% | -2.94% | 34.65% | 634.55% | -85.77% | 59.71% | 462.93% | 24.82% | 122.71% | -289.86% | -15.24% | 3.09% | -14.78% | - |
| EPS (Diluted) | 7.87 | 10.18 | 6.87 | 12.30 | 1.92 | 5.24 | 4.19 | 4.00 | 4.68 | 5.96 | 6.56 | 7.08 | 6.26 | 4.30 | 0.57 | 4.16 | 2.56 | 0.75 | 0.76 | -4.46 | 2.15 | 2.53 | 2.44 | 2.86 |
| EPS Growth % | -19.25% | 48.18% | -44.15% | 540.63% | -63.36% | 25.06% | 4.75% | -14.53% | -21.48% | -9.15% | -7.34% | 13.1% | 45.58% | 654.39% | -86.3% | 62.5% | 241.33% | -1.32% | 117.04% | -307.44% | -15.02% | 3.69% | -14.69% | - |
| EPS (Basic) | - | 10.29 | 7.01 | 12.55 | 1.96 | 5.29 | 4.22 | 4.04 | 4.74 | 6.05 | 6.61 | 7.12 | 6.30 | 4.33 | 0.58 | 4.21 | 2.63 | 0.77 | 0.76 | -4.46 | 2.18 | 2.55 | 2.44 | 2.86 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 44.6M | 49.4M | 54.3M | 59.6M | 63.9M | 74.3M | 86.2M | 100.2M | 111.3M | 122.3M | 134.1M | 149M | 173.6M | 187.6M | 190.7M | 185.5M | 188.9M | 129.1M | 88.06M | 68.03M | 74.29M | 74.49M | 74.92M | 75M |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying AGO stock.
For fiscal year 2025, Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) reported total revenue of $788.0M. This represents a 53.8% increase compared to $512.3M in 2003.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) is profitable, generating $503.0M in net income for the fiscal year ending 2025 with a net profit margin of 63.8%.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) reported an operating income of $662.0M, resulting in an operating profit margin of 84.0%. This margin reflects the operational efficiency of the business before interest and taxes.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) generated $732.0M in gross profit for the year, representing a gross profit margin of 92.9%. This demonstrates the company's core pricing power and production efficiency.
Key Metrics
Top Statement Risk
S&P capital framework changes
Metrics are mathematically derived from official filings.
Premium Growth Volatile Amid Rate Shifts
Revenue growth swung from -46% to +64% over the past year, with 2026Q2 down 29% year-over-year, reflecting lumpy refunding activity and market timing, as per AGO's quarterly reports.
The wide quarterly swings in total revenue, from $152M in 2024Q4 to $325M in 2025Q1, suggest that new business production is highly sensitive to municipal refunding waves and interest rate movements. The 2026Q2 revenue decline of 29.1% year-over-year, coupled with a 58.2% drop in EPS, indicates that the current rate environment may be dampening issuance volumes, though the long-term trend in PVP will be the key leading indicator to monitor.
Underwriting Profitability Remains Strong
Combined ratios have stayed well below 100% for the last five quarters, with 2026Q2 at 75.1%, indicating robust underwriting discipline despite revenue volatility, based on reported financials.
The combined ratio, which includes loss and expense components, has consistently been under 90% in most quarters, with occasional spikes like 2024Q4's 80.3%. The negative loss ratios in 2025Q3 and 2024Q3 reflect favorable reserve development, which may not be sustainable. The underlying underwriting margin appears structurally high, supported by the company's AA-rated credit profile and low loss incidence in its insured portfolio.
Reserve Releases Bolster Earnings
Negative loss ratios in 2025Q3 (-12.1%) and 2024Q3 (-18.3%) indicate prior-year reserve releases that inflated net income, as disclosed in quarterly statements, warranting scrutiny of earnings quality.
The negative loss ratios suggest that AGO has been releasing reserves from prior accident years, which boosts current underwriting income. While this is a sign of conservative reserving in the past, investors should monitor whether such releases are masking underlying deterioration in the current accident year. The 2026Q2 loss ratio of 2.0% is unusually low, implying either minimal new losses or continued favorable development, but the sustainability of this trend is uncertain.
Investment Income Contribution Unclear
Investment income data is not separately disclosed in the provided income statement, but the large investment portfolio likely contributes significantly to total revenue, as per AGO's financial reports.
The absence of explicit investment income figures in the quarterly data limits a direct assessment of its contribution. However, given the company's substantial investment portfolio backing its insurance liabilities, investment income is a critical component of total revenue. The recent EPS miss in 2026Q2 may partly stem from lower investment yields or realized losses, but without granular data, this remains speculative. Investors should seek additional disclosures to evaluate the portfolio's yield and duration positioning.
Q2 2026 Earnings Miss Signals Caution
The 2026Q2 EPS of $0.87 fell 46% short of consensus estimates, despite record adjusted book value per share of $189.72, as reported by AGO, suggesting potential volatility in loss experience or investment income.
This quarter stands out as a potential inflection point, as the significant earnings miss contrasts with management's emphasis on record book value. The miss may indicate that the company is facing higher-than-expected losses or lower investment returns, which could signal a shift in the underwriting cycle. While the combined ratio remained healthy at 75.1%, the absolute net income decline of 58.2% year-over-year warrants close monitoring to determine if this is a one-off or the start of a trend.
Earnings Quality Under Scrutiny
The reliance on reserve releases and fair value adjustments may overstate underlying profitability, as evidenced by volatile net income despite stable underwriting metrics, based on AGO's reported figures.
The wide swings in net income, from $18M in 2024Q4 to $176M in 2025Q1, suggest that non-operating items such as fair value changes on derivatives and foreign exchange are materially impacting reported earnings. Adjusted operating earnings, which exclude these items, may provide a clearer picture of the company's core profitability. Additionally, the low loss ratios in several quarters could be masking a gradual deterioration in credit quality, especially in sectors like healthcare or international infrastructure, which may not be fully reflected in current reserves.