Underwriting profitability remains structurally robust, evidenced by a combined ratio that frequently sits well below the 100% threshold, despite revenue growth volatility ranging from a 43.8% increase in 2025Q1 to a 46.1% contraction in 2024Q4.
| Metric | TTM | Dec'25 | Dec'24 | Dec'23 | Dec'22 | Dec'21 | Dec'20 | Dec'19 | Dec'18 | Dec'17 | Dec'16 | Dec'15 | Dec'14 | Dec'13 | Dec'12 | Dec'11 | Dec'10 | Dec'09 | Dec'08 | Dec'07 | Dec'06 | Dec'05 | Dec'04 | Dec'03 |
|---|
| Revenue | 951M | 788M | 814M | 1.01B | 684M | 698M | 1.08B | 924M | 987M | 1.65B | 1.38B | 1.96B | 1.74B | 1.26B | 763M | 1.95B | 1.59B | 917.16M | 553.19M | -301.6M | 322.06M | 294.53M | 347.9M | 512.3M |
| Revenue Growth % | 3.03% | -3.19% | -19.8% | 48.39% | -2.01% | -35.61% | 17.32% | -6.38% | -40.22% | 19.64% | -29.41% | 12.42% | 37.8% | 65.4% | -60.89% | 22.94% | 73.03% | 65.8% | 283.42% | -193.65% | 9.34% | -15.34% | -32.09% | - |
| Medical Costs & Claims | 51M | 56M | -6M | 175M | 30M | -206M | 219M | 111M | 80M | 407M | 313M | 444M | 151M | 166M | 518M | 465M | 434M | 567.97M | 265.76M | 49.02M | 51.73M | 114.87M | 82.9M | 209.5M |
| Medical Cost Ratio % | 5.36% | 7.11% | -0.74% | 17.24% | 4.39% | -29.51% | 20.2% | 12.01% | 8.11% | 24.65% | 22.68% | 22.71% | 8.68% | 13.15% | 67.89% | 23.83% | 27.35% | 61.93% | 48.04% | -16.25% | 16.06% | 39% | 23.83% | 40.89% |
| Gross Profit | 900M | 732M | 820M | 840M | 654M | 904M | 865M | 813M | 907M | 1.24B | 1.07B | 1.51B | 1.59B | 1.1B | 245M | 1.49B | 1.15B | 349.19M | 287.43M | -350.63M | 270.33M | 179.67M | 265M | 302.8M |
| Gross Margin % | 94.64% | 92.89% | 100.74% | 82.76% | 95.61% | 129.51% | 79.8% | 87.99% | 91.89% | 75.35% | 77.32% | 77.29% | 91.32% | 86.85% | 32.11% | 76.17% | 72.65% | 38.07% | 51.96% | 116.25% | 83.94% | 61% | 76.17% | 59.11% |
| Gross Profit Growth % | - | -10.73% | -2.38% | 28.44% | -27.65% | 4.51% | 6.4% | -10.36% | -27.09% | 16.59% | -29.38% | -4.85% | 44.89% | 347.35% | -83.51% | 28.88% | 230.19% | 21.49% | 181.98% | -229.7% | 50.46% | -32.2% | -12.48% | - |
| Operating Expenses | 433M | 70M | 332M | 172M | 506M | 427M | 452M | 349M | 327M | 253M | 50M | 80M | 57M | -46M | 113M | 457M | 619M | 232.26M | 175.09M | 112.4M | 80.35M | -49.95M | 31.7M | 56.6M |
| OpEx / Revenue % | 45.53% | 8.88% | 40.79% | 16.95% | 73.98% | 61.17% | 41.7% | 37.77% | 33.13% | 15.32% | 3.62% | 4.09% | 3.28% | -3.65% | 14.81% | 23.42% | 39% | 25.32% | 31.65% | -37.27% | 24.95% | -16.96% | 9.11% | 11.05% |
| Depreciation & Amortization | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.65M | 6.08M | 7.03M | 8.82M | 9.12M |
| Combined Ratio % | 50.89% | 15.99% | 40.05% | 34.19% | 78.36% | 31.66% | 61.9% | 49.78% | 41.24% | 39.98% | 26.3% | 26.8% | 11.96% | 9.51% | 82.7% | 47.26% | 66.35% | 87.25% | 79.69% | -53.52% | 41.01% | 22.04% | 32.94% | 51.94% |
| Operating Income | 467M | 662M | 488M | 668M | 148M | 477M | 413M | 464M | 580M | 991M | 1.02B | 1.43B | 1.53B | 1.14B | 132M | 1.03B | 534M | 116.93M | 112.33M | -463.02M | 189.97M | 229.62M | 233.3M | 246.2M |
| Operating Margin % | 49.11% | 84.01% | 59.95% | 65.81% | 21.64% | 68.34% | 38.1% | 50.22% | 58.76% | 60.02% | 73.7% | 73.2% | 88.04% | 90.49% | 17.3% | 52.74% | 33.65% | 12.75% | 20.31% | 153.52% | 58.99% | 77.96% | 67.06% | 48.06% |
| Operating Income Growth % | - | 35.66% | -26.95% | 351.35% | -68.97% | 15.5% | -10.99% | -20% | -41.47% | -2.56% | -28.93% | -6.53% | 34.06% | 765.15% | -87.17% | 92.7% | 356.68% | 4.1% | 124.26% | -343.73% | -17.27% | -1.58% | -5.24% | - |
| EBITDA | 534M | 751M | 579M | 758M | 229M | 564M | 498M | 553M | 674M | 1.09B | 1.12B | 1.53B | 1.62B | 1.22B | 224M | 1.13B | 634M | 179.72M | 135.61M | -460.38M | 196.05M | 236.65M | 242.13M | 255.32M |
| EBITDA Margin % | 56.15% | 95.3% | 71.13% | 74.68% | 33.48% | 80.8% | 45.94% | 59.85% | 68.29% | 65.9% | 81.09% | 78.36% | 93.33% | 96.99% | 29.36% | 57.82% | 39.95% | 19.59% | 24.51% | 152.64% | 60.87% | 80.35% | 69.6% | 49.84% |
| Interest Expense | 89M | 89M | 91M | 90M | 81M | 87M | 85M | 89M | 94M | 97M | 102M | 101M | 92M | 82M | 92M | 99M | 100M | 62.78M | 23.28M | 23.53M | 13.77M | 13.52M | 10.7M | 5.7M |
| Non-Operating Income | -67M | -89M | -91M | -90M | -81M | -87M | -85M | -89M | -94M | -97M | -102M | -101M | -92M | -82M | -92M | -99M | -100M | -62.78M | -23.28M | -23.53M | -13.77M | -13.52M | -10.7M | -5.7M |
| Pretax Income | 498M | 662M | 488M | 668M | 148M | 477M | 413M | 464M | 580M | 991M | 1.02B | 1.43B | 1.53B | 1.14B | 132M | 1.03B | 534M | 116.93M | 112.33M | -463.02M | 189.97M | 229.62M | 233.3M | 246.2M |
| Pretax Margin % | 52.37% | 84.01% | 59.95% | 65.81% | 21.64% | 68.34% | 38.1% | 50.22% | 58.76% | 60.02% | 73.7% | 73.2% | 88.04% | 90.49% | 17.3% | 52.74% | 33.65% | 12.75% | 20.31% | 153.52% | 58.99% | 77.96% | 67.06% | 48.06% |
| Income Tax | 55M | 119M | 96M | -93M | 11M | 58M | 45M | 63M | 59M | 261M | 136M | 375M | 443M | 334M | 22M | 256M | 50M | 32.11M | 43.45M | -159.75M | 30.24M | 41.17M | 50.5M | 31.7M |
| Effective Tax Rate % | 11.04% | 17.98% | 19.67% | -13.92% | 7.43% | 12.16% | 10.9% | 13.58% | 10.17% | 26.34% | 13.37% | 26.21% | 28.94% | 29.25% | 16.67% | 24.88% | 9.36% | 27.46% | 38.68% | 34.5% | 15.92% | 17.93% | 21.65% | 12.88% |
| Net Income | 415M | 503M | 376M | 739M | 124M | 389M | 362M | 402M | 521M | 730M | 881M | 1.06B | 1.09B | 808M | 110M | 773M | 484M | 85.98M | 68.88M | -303.27M | 159.73M | 188.45M | 182.8M | 214.5M |
| Net Margin % | 43.64% | 63.83% | 46.19% | 72.81% | 18.13% | 55.73% | 33.39% | 43.51% | 52.79% | 44.22% | 63.84% | 54.02% | 62.56% | 64.03% | 14.42% | 39.62% | 30.5% | 9.37% | 12.45% | 100.55% | 49.6% | 63.98% | 52.54% | 41.87% |
| Net Income Growth % | -6.32% | 33.78% | -49.12% | 495.97% | -68.12% | 7.46% | -9.95% | -22.84% | -28.63% | -17.14% | -16.57% | -2.94% | 34.65% | 634.55% | -85.77% | 59.71% | 462.93% | 24.82% | 122.71% | -289.86% | -15.24% | 3.09% | -14.78% | - |
| EPS (Diluted) | 9.14 | 10.18 | 6.87 | 12.30 | 1.92 | 5.24 | 4.19 | 4.00 | 4.68 | 5.96 | 6.56 | 7.08 | 6.26 | 4.30 | 0.57 | 4.16 | 2.56 | 0.75 | 0.76 | -4.46 | 2.15 | 2.53 | 2.44 | 2.86 |
| EPS Growth % | 1.55% | 48.18% | -44.15% | 540.63% | -63.36% | 25.06% | 4.75% | -14.53% | -21.48% | -9.15% | -7.34% | 13.1% | 45.58% | 654.39% | -86.3% | 62.5% | 241.33% | -1.32% | 117.04% | -307.44% | -15.02% | 3.69% | -14.69% | - |
| EPS (Basic) | - | 10.29 | 7.01 | 12.55 | 1.96 | 5.29 | 4.22 | 4.04 | 4.74 | 6.05 | 6.61 | 7.12 | 6.30 | 4.33 | 0.58 | 4.21 | 2.63 | 0.77 | 0.76 | -4.46 | 2.18 | 2.55 | 2.44 | 2.86 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 45.4M | 49.4M | 54.3M | 59.6M | 63.9M | 74.3M | 86.2M | 100.2M | 111.3M | 122.3M | 134.1M | 149M | 173.6M | 187.6M | 190.7M | 185.5M | 188.9M | 129.1M | 88.06M | 68.03M | 74.29M | 74.49M | 74.92M | 75M |
Municipal credit cycle volatility
As indicated by the provided financial data, Assured Guaranty's revenue growth remains highly erratic, fluctuating between a 43.8% increase in 2025Q1 and a 46.1% contraction in 2024Q4, suggesting that the company's top-line performance is heavily dependent on lumpy, non-recurring municipal bond refunding activity.
The significant quarter-over-quarter variance in revenue suggests that the company's core insurance business is sensitive to external interest rate environments rather than consistent organic growth. Investors should monitor whether the current volatility in premium recognition masks a underlying decline in new business production or simply reflects the timing of large-scale infrastructure project closures.
Based on the reported figures, Assured Guaranty maintains a strong underwriting profile, evidenced by a combined ratio that frequently sits well below the 100% threshold, including a notable 12.7% performance in 2024Q3, which underscores the company's ability to generate significant underwriting profit despite periodic loss reserve adjustments.
The consistently low loss ratios, occasionally dipping into negative territory due to reserve releases, imply that the company's historical actuarial assumptions remain conservative. While this supports high margins, it warrants further investigation into whether these releases are sustainable or if they are merely smoothing earnings during periods of lower premium volume.
According to the quarterly income statements, the company's loss ratio has exhibited extreme swings, ranging from a negative 18.3% in 2024Q3 to a positive 22.4% in 2024Q4, which suggests that prior-year reserve adjustments are playing a disproportionate role in shaping the company's reported quarterly net income.
These fluctuations indicate that the company's earnings are susceptible to the timing of loss development, which may obscure the true underlying profitability of the current underwriting book. Analysts should be cautious in extrapolating recent net income figures, as they appear heavily influenced by non-linear actuarial adjustments rather than pure operational performance.
As reported in financial statements, the company's EPS growth has experienced severe volatility, such as the 94.6% decline in 2024Q4, which highlights the inherent difficulty in valuing a monoline insurer that relies on complex, long-dated credit guarantees and potentially volatile fair value adjustments.
The market's tendency to trade the stock at a discount to book value may reflect a rational skepticism regarding the quality of earnings when they are so heavily impacted by reserve releases and non-cash accounting items. Investors should monitor whether the pivot toward asset management can provide a more stable, fee-based earnings stream to offset the inherent lumpiness of the insurance segment.
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying AGO stock.
For fiscal year 2025, Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) reported total revenue of $788.0M. This represents a 53.8% increase compared to $512.3M in 2003.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) is profitable, generating $503.0M in net income for the fiscal year ending 2025 with a net profit margin of 63.8%.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) reported an operating income of $662.0M, resulting in an operating profit margin of 84.0%. This margin reflects the operational efficiency of the business before interest and taxes.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) generated $732.0M in gross profit for the year, representing a gross profit margin of 92.9%. This demonstrates the company's core pricing power and production efficiency.