AGO trades 23.9% below Wall Street's consensus target of $85.50.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes AGO achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 10.0x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 9 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of September 24, 2026, Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $85.50, based on estimates from 9 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $68.99, this represents a potential upside of +23.9%. The company has a market capitalization of $3.06B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $80.00 to a high of $91.00, representing a 13% spread in expectations. The median target of $85.50 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 8 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,1 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. This overwhelmingly bullish sentiment suggests analysts see significant catalysts for upside ahead.
From a valuation perspective, AGO trades at a trailing P/E of 6.8x and forward P/E of 10.0x. The forward PEG ratio of 0.51 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow -11.9% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $76.16, with bear and bull scenarios of $47.98 and $100.34 respectively. Model confidence stands at 46/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 MBIMBIA Inc. | $230M | $4.51 | $14.00 | +210.4% | Buy | — | 6 |
 AGMFederal Agricultural Mortgage | $2.4B | $217.17 | $233.00 | +7.3% | Buy | 10.4x | 5 |
 RDNRadian Group Inc. | $4.6B | $34.54 | $41.00 | +18.7% | Buy | 7.1x | 22 |
 MTGMGIC Investment Corporation | $6.0B | $29.30 | $31.50 | +7.5% | Buy | 9.1x | 22 |
 ESNTEssent Group Ltd. | $6.0B | $65.45 | $70.00 | +7.0% | Buy | 8.8x | 19 |
 NMIHNMI Holdings, Inc. | $3.2B | $42.19 | $49.50 | +17.3% | Buy | 8.0x | 20 |
 PFSIPennyMac Financial Services, Inc. | $3.4B | $65.61 | $89.80 | +36.9% | Buy | 12.2x | 21 |
 MCOMoody's Corporation | $82.1B | $473.93 | $540.60 | +14.1% | Buy | 28.0x | 32 |
 SPGIS&P Global Inc. | $119.8B | $406.50 | $512.25 | +26.0% | Buy | 22.7x | 28 |
 MSMorgan Stanley | $313.0B | $198.44 | $239.50 | +20.7% | Buy | 15.4x | 52 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying AGO stock.
The consensus Wall Street price target for AGO is $85.5, representing 23.9% upside from the current price of $68.99. With 9 analysts covering the stock, this strong upside suggests significant value not yet reflected in today's share price.
AGO has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 9 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 8 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $85.5 implies 23.9% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 9.9544x, AGO trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $85.5 implies 23.9% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $91 for AGO, while the most conservative target is $80. The consensus of $85.5 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $100 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
AGO is moderately covered, with 9 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 8 have Buy ratings, 1 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month AGO stock forecast based on 9 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $85.5, with estimates ranging from $80 (bear case) to $91 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $76, with bear/bull scenarios of $48/$100.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates AGO's fair value at $76 (base case), with a bear case of $48 and bull case of $100. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 46/100.
AGO trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10.0x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 6.8x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are very optimistic on AGO, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $85.5 price target (23.9% upside). 8 of 9 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
AGO analyst price targets range from $80 to $91, a 13% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $85.5 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $48-$100 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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