Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) Income Statement

The swing from 40.5% growth in 2025Q1 to 2.8% in 2025Q4, then back to 14.4%, points to lumpy capacity and shifting seasonal comparisons rather than compounding organic demand. Because RASM and load factor are not disclosed in this dataset, investors cannot yet separate price from volume effects, so the durability of the mid-teens print warrants further investigation against ASM growth and the contribution of the Mileage Plan's ancillary streams.

A trailing operating margin near 2.1% sits well below Delta's 9.2% and United's 8.0%, implying ALK has materially less cushion to absorb jet fuel or union-driven labor inflation than its legacy peers. Analysts should note that reported gross margins swing from 16.3% to 100.0% because COGS is recorded as zero or near-zero in several quarters, so the gross line should be treated as data unavailable for trend work while the operating and net margins carry the analytical weight.

SG&A moving from $82M to $118M against a larger revenue base implies the administrative cost structure has not been re-based as the network expanded, which is unfavorable for a high-fixed-cost carrier that needs volume to lever overhead. The reversal from $341M of operating income on $3.1B of revenue to $82M on $4.3B suggests negative operating leverage in the current cost environment, and investors should monitor whether management can bend SG&A back toward the $95M-$105M range seen in 2025.

Since that peak, operating margin has compressed from 11.1% to 1.9% and ALK has reported net losses in four of the last six quarters, a pattern that may reflect the convergence of integration costs, labor inflation and fuel volatility rather than a single transient event. If 2024Q3 proves to be the high-water mark, prior-cycle earnings power may not be a defensible anchor for valuation multiples, and the wide forward EPS guidance range reported by management underscores the uncertainty around the exit rate.