Upside case
Bull case
$580+63.3%
AMD would need investors to value it at roughly 85x earnings — about 33x more generous than today's 52x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
70
analysts
47 bullish · 0 bearish · 70 covering AMD
Strong Buy
0
Buy
47
Hold
23
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$311
-12.5% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $580
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
70
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
51.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $579.2B
AMD price targets
Three scenarios for where AMD stock could go
Current
~$355
Confidence
71 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $355
Base
$355
Bull
$580
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$355+0.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing AMD — at roughly 52x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
AMD · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsDecember year-end
Advanced Micro Devices designs and sells high-performance computing and graphics processors for PCs, data centers, gaming consoles, and embedded systems. It generates revenue primarily from sales of CPUs (~50% of revenue) and GPUs (~30%), with the remainder coming from semi-custom chips for game consoles and embedded processors. AMD's key advantage is its competitive x86 CPU architecture and GPU technology that directly challenges market leader Intel in performance-per-dollar across multiple segments.
Market Cap
$579.2B
Revenue TTM
$37.5B
Net Income TTM
$5.0B
Net Margin
13.4%
AMD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.96/$0.94
Revenue
$7.4B/$7.1B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.48/$0.48
Revenue
$7.7B/$7.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.20/$1.17
Revenue
$9.2B/$8.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.53/$1.32
Revenue
$10.3B/$9.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.96/$0.94 | +1.7% | $7.4B/$7.1B | +4.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.48/$0.48 | +0.3% | $7.7B/$7.4B | +3.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.20/$1.17 | +2.6% | $9.2B/$8.8B | +5.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.53/$1.32 | +15.9% | $10.3B/$9.7B | +6.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$44.7B
+29.0% YoY
FY2
$57.2B
+28.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.45
+107.1% YoY
FY2
$7.16
+31.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$8.6B
FCF Margin: 22.9%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
AMD beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
AMD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $38.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Data Center
43.2%
+32.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
32.8%
+30.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Data Center is the largest disclosed segment at 43.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 32.2% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 32.8%, up 30.7% YoY.
AMD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $234 — implies -35.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
35.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AMD
134.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+434% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
AMD
134.1x
vs
Technology
26.7x
+401% premium
vs AMD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
134.1x
vs
5Y Average
85.1x
+58% premium
Forward PE
51.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
+172%
Technology
22.1x
+135%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
134.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
+434%
Technology
26.7x
+401%
5Y Avg
85.1x
+58%
PEG Ratio
25.95x
S&P 500
1.72x
+1412%
Technology
1.52x
+1603%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
86.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+467%
Technology
17.5x
+394%
5Y Avg
42.8x
+102%
Price/FCF
86.0x
S&P 500
21.1x
+308%
Technology
19.5x
+341%
5Y Avg
56.5x
+52%
Price/Sales
16.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+435%
Technology
2.4x
+584%
5Y Avg
8.8x
+90%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Technology
1.16%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | AMD | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg AMD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 51.9x | 19.1x+172% | 22.1x+135% | — |
| Trailing PE | 134.1x | 25.1x+434% | 26.7x+401% | 85.1x+58% |
| PEG Ratio | 25.95x | 1.72x+1412% | 1.52x+1603% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 86.3x | 15.2x+467% | 17.5x+394% | 42.8x+102% |
| Price/FCF | 86.0x | 21.1x+308% | 19.5x+341% | 56.5x+52% |
| Price/Sales | 16.7x | 3.1x+435% | 2.4x+584% | 8.8x+90% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.16% | — |
AMD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAMD Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
AMD generates $8.6B in free cash flow at a 22.9% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$37.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+35.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
50.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.04
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$8.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
22.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$5.5B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
8.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.2%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.6B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAMD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Intense Rivalry in CPUs & GPUs
AMD faces fierce competition from Intel in the CPU market and NVIDIA in the AI GPU market. NVIDIA's dominance in AI GPUs and Intel's entrenched position in CPUs create pricing pressure, higher R&D costs, and risk of losing market share.
High Risk
Manufacturing Concentration Risk
AMD relies heavily on TSMC for advanced chip manufacturing. Capacity shortages, geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, or financial stress at TSMC could disrupt supply, delay product launches, and affect on‑time delivery to customers.
High Risk
Global Economic & Trade Risks
Rising inflation, higher interest rates, and geopolitical tensions—including export controls—can dampen semiconductor demand and create supply chain turbulence. Trade policy shifts and regulatory scrutiny, especially in key regions, pose additional threats.
Medium
Cyclical Demand Fluctuations
The semiconductor industry is highly cyclical, with AMD's revenue sensitive to enterprise spending cycles, consumer weakness, and inventory adjustments. Macroeconomic slowdowns can lead to overbuilding or shortages, impacting profitability.
Medium
Product Development Timelines
AMD's success depends on timely introduction of advanced products. Delays or missteps in product development can cause the company to lag behind competitors and miss market opportunities.
Medium
AI GPU Competition
While AI presents growth opportunities, competition from NVIDIA's established AI ecosystem intensifies pressure on AMD to deliver advanced solutions quickly. Gaining market share in AI GPUs remains a significant challenge.
Lower
Cybersecurity & Counterparty Exposure
AMD faces cybersecurity threats, counterparty risks from long‑term commitments, and stock price volatility driven by market sentiment and future expectations. These operational risks can affect financial stability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AMD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
AI Chip Market Share & Big Deals
AMD is positioned as a leading alternative to Nvidia in the AI chip market, targeting a rapidly expanding $300 billion‑plus industry by 2030. The company has secured multi‑year agreements with OpenAI and Meta, including a Meta deal potentially worth up to $100 billion that will deploy AMD Instinct GPUs and EPYC CPUs, with initial shipments slated for the second half of 2026.
Data Center Revenue Growth
AMD’s data center segment has experienced explosive growth, driven by demand for EPYC processors and Instinct GPUs. Analysts project this segment to grow at 60%+ annually, becoming a key driver of future revenue expansion.
Xilinx Acquisition Edge Advantage
The acquisition of Xilinx has strengthened AMD’s programmable logic device (FPGA) portfolio, providing ultra‑low latency performance essential for edge AI workloads. This positions AMD competitively in AI computing beyond traditional GPUs.
Product Pipeline & Launches
AMD’s upcoming GPU lineup—including the MI350, MI400, and MI450 series—targets hyperscale environments. The MI450 Series, powering Helios systems, is slated for launch in Q3 2026, promising industry‑leading performance.
Robust Financial Outlook
AMD has delivered record revenue growth, with a projected 35%+ CAGR and adjusted operating margins expected to exceed 35%. EPS is forecast to surpass $20 in the coming years, underscoring strong profitability prospects.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AMD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$355.26
52W Range Position
97%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$96.88
+266.7% from the low
52-Week High
$362.79
-2.1% from the high
1 Month
+61.35%
3 Month
+84.55%
YTD
+59.0%
1 Year
+253.2%
3Y CAGR
+58.1%
5Y CAGR
+35.5%
10Y CAGR
+58.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AMD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
51.9x
vs 44.0x median
+18% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+29.0%
vs +14.3% median
+103% above peer median
Net Margin
13.4%
vs 22.3% median
-40% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AMD AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | $579.2B | 51.9x | +29.0% | 13.4% | Buy | -12.5% |
INT INTC Intel Corporation | $543.2B | 103.7x | +3.9% | -5.9% | Hold | -28.7% |
NVD NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | $4.78T | 23.7x | +50.9% | 55.6% | Buy | +41.9% |
QCO QCOM QUALCOMM Incorporated | $196.6B | 17.4x | +1.4% | 22.3% | Hold | -6.2% |
ARM ARM Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares | $220.7B | 119.1x | +14.3% | 18.8% | Buy | -21.6% |
MRV MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. | $146.1B | 44.0x | +29.9% | 32.6% | Buy | -23.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AMD Dividend and Capital Return
AMD returns 0.2% annually — null% through dividends and 0.2% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.2%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.6B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | $0.01 | — | 0.2% | 0.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsAMD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 70 analysts covering the stock, 47 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 23 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $311, implying -12.5% from the current price of $355.
02What is the AMD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AMD is $311 based on 70 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $380 (+7.0% from today), and the low-end target is $230 (-35.3%). The base case model target is $355.
03Is Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) stock overvalued in 2026?
AMD trades at 51.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AMD in 2026 are: (1) Intense Rivalry in CPUs & GPUs — AMD faces fierce competition from Intel in the CPU market and NVIDIA in the AI GPU market. (2) Manufacturing Concentration Risk — AMD relies heavily on TSMC for advanced chip manufacturing. (3) Global Economic & Trade Risks — Rising inflation, higher interest rates, and geopolitical tensions—including export controls—can dampen semiconductor demand and create supply chain turbulence. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AMD will report consensus revenue of $44.7B (+29.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.45 (+107.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $57.2B in revenue.
06When does Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for AMD is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. generate?
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) generated $8.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 22.9%. AMD returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($1.3B TTM).