Upside case
Bull case
$360-33.0%
The bull case prices AMD at 48x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
70
analysts
50 bullish · 0 bearish · 70 covering AMD
Strong Buy
0
Buy
50
Hold
20
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$453
-15.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$172 – $360
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
70
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
72.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $876.1B
AMD price targets
Three scenarios for where AMD stock could go
Current
~$537
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $537
Bear
$172
Base
$273
Bull
$360
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$273-49.2%
At 37x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$172-68.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 49x multiple contraction could push AMD down roughly 68% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
AMD · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsDecember year-end
Advanced Micro Devices designs and sells high-performance computing and graphics processors for PCs, data centers, gaming consoles, and embedded systems. It generates revenue primarily from sales of CPUs (~50% of revenue) and GPUs (~30%), with the remainder coming from semi-custom chips for game consoles and embedded processors. AMD's key advantage is its competitive x86 CPU architecture and GPU technology that directly challenges market leader Intel in performance-per-dollar across multiple segments.
Market Cap
$876.1B
Revenue TTM
$37.5B
Net Income TTM
$5.0B
Net Margin
13.3%
AMD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.48/$0.48
Revenue
$7.7B/$7.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.20/$1.17
Revenue
$9.2B/$8.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.53/$1.32
Revenue
$10.3B/$9.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.37/$1.29
Revenue
$10.3B/$9.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.48/$0.48 | +0.3% | $7.7B/$7.4B | +3.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.20/$1.17 | +2.6% | $9.2B/$8.8B | +5.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.53/$1.32 | +15.9% | $10.3B/$9.7B | +6.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.37/$1.29 | +6.2% | $10.3B/$9.9B | +3.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$46.9B
+25.1% YoY
FY2
$58.4B
+24.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.15
+70.2% YoY
FY2
$6.07
+17.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$8.6B
FCF Margin: 22.9%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.60
Expected Revenue
$11.2B
AMD beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
AMD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $38.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Data Center
43.2%
+32.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
32.8%
+30.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Data Center is the largest disclosed segment at 43.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 32.2% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 32.8%, up 30.7% YoY.
AMD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $307 — implies -42.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
42.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AMD
202.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+729% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
AMD
202.8x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+599% premium
vs AMD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
202.8x
vs
5Y Average
85.1x
+138% premium
Forward PE
72.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
+283%
Technology
22.3x
+223%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
202.8x
S&P 500
24.4x
+729%
Technology
29.0x
+599%
5Y Avg
85.1x
+138%
PEG Ratio
39.25x
S&P 500
1.66x
+2265%
Technology
1.51x
+2506%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
130.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
+759%
Technology
16.6x
+686%
5Y Avg
42.8x
+205%
Price/FCF
130.1x
S&P 500
20.7x
+529%
Technology
19.2x
+577%
5Y Avg
56.5x
+130%
Price/Sales
25.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+718%
Technology
2.4x
+937%
5Y Avg
8.8x
+188%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | AMD | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg AMD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 72.0x | 18.8x+283% | 22.3x+223% | — |
| Trailing PE | 202.8x | 24.4x+729% | 29.0x+599% | 85.1x+138% |
| PEG Ratio | 39.25x | 1.66x+2265% | 1.51x+2506% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 130.6x | 15.2x+759% | 16.6x+686% | 42.8x+205% |
| Price/FCF | 130.1x | 20.7x+529% | 19.2x+577% | 56.5x+130% |
| Price/Sales | 25.3x | 3.1x+718% | 2.4x+937% | 8.8x+188% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
AMD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAMD Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
AMD generates $8.6B in free cash flow at a 22.9% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$37.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+35.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
50.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.03
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$8.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
22.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$5.5B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
8.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.2%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.6B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAMD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
AI market competition
AMD faces intense competition in the AI accelerator market, with risks to its MI450 roadmap and data center share gains.
High Risk
Valuation reset risk
The base case fair value estimate for AMD has shifted materially, indicating potential overvaluation or market volatility.
Medium
Execution risks
A serious investment in AMD requires rigorous downside analysis due to execution risks in data center and AI growth.
Medium
Regulatory disclosures
AMD disclosed 42 risk factors in its recent earnings report, highlighting operational and financial challenges.
Lower
Proxy statement timing
Portions of the 2026 Proxy Statement are pending incorporation, suggesting minor administrative or governance risks.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AMD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
AI-driven expansion
AMD's growth is fueled by increasing demand for AI technologies, as highlighted by record revenue and data center AI growth.
Data center growth
Strong performance in data center segments, including the MI450 roadmap, is a key driver for AMD's bullish outlook.
Product ramp-ups
Continued product ramp-ups and execution have contributed to significant stock price appreciation.
Wide moat advantage
AMD's wide moat and strong competitive positioning are cited as reasons for long-term bullishness.
Institutional ownership
Top institutional holders like Vanguard Group (9.5%) signal confidence in AMD's future prospects.
Forward P/E valuation
A forward P/E of 39.68 suggests optimism about AMD's earnings growth potential compared to its trailing P/E.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AMD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$537.37
52W Range Position
95%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$125.77
+327.3% from the low
52-Week High
$558.37
-3.8% from the high
1 Month
+27.64%
3 Month
+169.41%
YTD
+140.5%
1 Year
+323.8%
3Y CAGR
+65.3%
5Y CAGR
+44.7%
10Y CAGR
+59.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AMD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
72.0x
vs 76.8x median
-6% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+25.1%
vs +20.3% median
+24% above peer median
Net Margin
13.3%
vs 22.3% median
-40% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AMD AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | $876.1B | 72.0x | +25.1% | 13.3% | Buy | -15.7% |
INT INTC Intel Corporation | $672.8B | 123.6x | +5.1% | -5.9% | Hold | -33.5% |
NVD NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | $5.10T | 23.6x | +37.8% | 63.0% | Buy | +50.4% |
QCO QCOM QUALCOMM Incorporated | $238.3B | 21.1x | +4.6% | 22.3% | Hold | -15.5% |
ARM ARM Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares | $467.6B | 202.1x | +20.3% | 18.4% | Buy | -38.3% |
MRV MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. | $271.7B | 76.8x | +26.3% | 29.0% | Buy | -22.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AMD Dividend and Capital Return
AMD returns 0.2% annually — null% through dividends and 0.2% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.2%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.6B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | $0.01 | — | 0.2% | 0.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsAMD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 70 analysts covering the stock, 50 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 20 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $453, implying -15.7% from the current price of $537. The bear case scenario is $172 and the bull case is $360.
02What is the AMD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AMD is $453 based on 70 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $665 (+23.8% from today), and the low-end target is $260 (-51.6%). The base case model target is $273.
03Is Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) stock overvalued in 2026?
AMD trades at 72.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AMD in 2026 are: (1) AI market competition — AMD faces intense competition in the AI accelerator market, with risks to its MI450 roadmap and data center share gains. (2) Valuation reset risk — The base case fair value estimate for AMD has shifted materially, indicating potential overvaluation or market volatility. (3) Execution risks — A serious investment in AMD requires rigorous downside analysis due to execution risks in data center and AI growth. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AMD will report consensus revenue of $46.9B (+25.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.15 (+70.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $58.4B in revenue.
06When does Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) report its next earnings?
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $1.60 and revenue of $11.2B. Over recent quarters, AMD has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. generate?
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) generated $8.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 22.9%. AMD returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($1.3B TTM).