Upside case
Bull case
$465+136.8%
NVDA would need investors to value it at roughly 56x earnings — about 32x more generous than today's 24x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
79
analysts
60 bullish · 3 bearish · 79 covering NVDA
Strong Buy
2
Buy
58
Hold
16
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$279
+41.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$83 – $465
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
79
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
23.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $4.78T
NVDA price targets
Three scenarios for where NVDA stock could go
Current
~$196
Confidence
65 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $196
Bear
$83
Base
$345
Bull
$465
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$345+75.4%
At 42x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$83-57.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 14x multiple contraction could push NVDA down roughly 58% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
NVIDIA Corporation
NVDA · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsJanuary year-end
NVIDIA designs and sells graphics processing units (GPUs) and accelerated computing platforms that power artificial intelligence, gaming, and professional visualization applications. The company generates revenue primarily through its Data Center segment — which includes AI chips and systems — accounting for over 70% of sales, supplemented by its Gaming GPU business and professional visualization offerings. NVIDIA's competitive moat stems from its CUDA software ecosystem — which locks developers into its hardware architecture — and its years of architectural leadership in parallel processing for AI workloads.
Market Cap
$4.78T
Revenue TTM
$215.9B
Net Income TTM
$120.1B
Net Margin
55.6%
NVDA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+10.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.81/$0.74
Revenue
$44.1B/$43.3B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.05/$1.01
Revenue
$46.7B/$46.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.30/$1.26
Revenue
$57.0B/$55.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.62/$1.54
Revenue
$68.1B/$66.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.81/$0.74 | +9.9% | $44.1B/$43.3B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.05/$1.01 | +4.0% | $46.7B/$46.0B | +1.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.30/$1.26 | +3.2% | $57.0B/$55.0B | +3.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.62/$1.54 | +5.2% | $68.1B/$66.1B | +3.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$325.8B
+50.9% YoY
FY2
$385.1B
+18.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.20
+46.4% YoY
FY2
$8.59
+19.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$96.7B
FCF Margin: 44.8%
Next Earnings
May 20, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.76
Expected Revenue
$78.4B
NVDA beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
NVDA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2026
Total disclosed revenue $215.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Data Center
89.7%
+68.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
69.3%
+144.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Data Center is the largest disclosed segment at 89.7% of FY 2026 revenue, up 68.2% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 69.3%, up 144.2% YoY.
NVDA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $379 — implies +90.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
90.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NVDA
40.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+60% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
NVDA
40.1x
vs
Technology
26.7x
+50% premium
vs NVDA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
40.1x
vs
5Y Average
63.6x
37% discount
Forward PE
23.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
+24%
Technology
22.1x
+7%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
40.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
+60%
Technology
26.7x
+50%
5Y Avg
63.6x
-37%
PEG Ratio
0.42x
S&P 500
1.72x
-76%
Technology
1.52x
-73%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
35.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
+136%
Technology
17.5x
+105%
5Y Avg
52.7x
-32%
Price/FCF
49.4x
S&P 500
21.1x
+134%
Technology
19.5x
+153%
5Y Avg
73.4x
-33%
Price/Sales
22.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
+607%
Technology
2.4x
+805%
5Y Avg
22.8x
-3%
Dividend Yield
0.02%
S&P 500
1.87%
-99%
Technology
1.16%
-98%
5Y Avg
0.04%
-53%
| Metric | NVDA | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg NVDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 23.7x | 19.1x+24% | 22.1x | — |
| Trailing PE | 40.1x | 25.1x+60% | 26.7x+50% | 63.6x-37% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.42x | 1.72x-76% | 1.52x-73% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 35.9x | 15.2x+136% | 17.5x+105% | 52.7x-32% |
| Price/FCF | 49.4x | 21.1x+134% | 19.5x+153% | 73.4x-33% |
| Price/Sales | 22.1x | 3.1x+607% | 2.4x+805% | 22.8x |
| Dividend Yield | 0.02% | 1.87% | 1.16% | 0.04% |
NVDA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNVDA Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
NVDA generates $96.7B in free cash flow at a 44.8% margin — 81.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$215.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+65.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
71.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
60.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
55.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.91
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$96.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
44.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
81.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
58.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$10.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$807M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.0× FCF
~0.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
76.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.9%
Dividend
0.0%
Buyback
0.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$40.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.04
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
0.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
24.3B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageNVDA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Competition from AI Chip Rivals
AMD and Intel are developing their own AI accelerators, while hyperscalers such as Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are creating custom AI chips. These developments threaten Nvidia’s market share in the AI accelerator segment.
High Risk
Export Restrictions & Antitrust in China
U.S. export controls limit Nvidia’s ability to sell advanced AI chips to China, forcing the company to offer lower‑margin compliant alternatives that face domestic competition. A Chinese antitrust probe into past acquisitions adds regulatory uncertainty.
High Risk
Dependence on AI Infrastructure Spending
Nvidia’s growth is heavily tied to AI infrastructure demand. A slowdown in AI spending, overbuilding by customers, or a shift in workload preferences could materially reduce revenue growth.
High Risk
Customer Concentration Risk
A large portion of Nvidia’s revenue comes from a handful of cloud providers. Reduced spending or strategic shifts by these key clients could cause sharp fluctuations in financial results.
Medium
Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
Nvidia relies on third‑party manufacturers for wafer fabrication, advanced packaging, and transportation. Disruptions in wafer capacity or logistics could delay product launches and increase costs.
Medium
High Valuation & Market Sentiment
Nvidia trades at a premium valuation that may outpace earnings growth. A slowdown in growth could trigger a value trap, and the stock is sensitive to news‑driven volatility.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NVDA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
AI Market Dominance
NVIDIA commands roughly 90% of the AI infrastructure GPU market, supported by its CUDA software ecosystem that locks in developers and makes it hard for competitors to gain traction.
Data Center Revenue Surge
Data Center revenues are projected to grow at a CAGR of 80‑90% through fiscal 2026‑2027. FY 2026 revenue reached $215.94 B, a 65.47% increase from the prior year.
Blackwell & Rubin Revenue Outlook
Revenue from the new Blackwell and Vera Rubin platforms is expected to exceed $1 trillion by the end of 2027, underscoring the high growth potential of NVIDIA’s next‑generation chips.
$1 Trillion Order Pipeline
CEO Jensen Huang cited at least $1 trillion in orders for Blackwell and Vera Rubin through 2027, driven by commitments from Meta, OpenAI, and other major tech players.
Ecosystem Moat & Tech Leadership
NVIDIA’s CUDA, NVLink interconnect, and Mellanox acquisition create a wide moat, while its focus on inference and agentic AI positions it for future market leadership.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NVDA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$196.50
52W Range Position
81%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$110.82
+77.3% from the low
52-Week High
$216.80
-9.4% from the high
1 Month
+10.62%
3 Month
+14.32%
YTD
+4.0%
1 Year
+72.6%
3Y CAGR
+89.9%
5Y CAGR
+68.5%
10Y CAGR
+71.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NVDA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
23.7x
vs 37.8x median
-37% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+50.9%
vs +10.5% median
+384% above peer median
Net Margin
55.6%
vs 22.3% median
+149% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NVD NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | $4.78T | 23.7x | +50.9% | 55.6% | Buy | +41.9% |
AMD AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | $579.2B | 51.9x | +29.0% | 13.4% | Buy | -12.5% |
INT INTC Intel Corporation | $543.2B | 103.7x | +3.9% | -5.9% | Hold | -28.7% |
QCO QCOM QUALCOMM Incorporated | $196.6B | 17.4x | +1.4% | 22.3% | Hold | -6.2% |
AVG AVGO Broadcom Inc. | $2.03T | 37.8x | +38.9% | 36.6% | Buy | +3.8% |
TXN TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated | $255.7B | 37.2x | +10.5% | 29.1% | Buy | -9.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NVDA Dividend and Capital Return
NVDA returns capital mainly through $40.1B/year in buybacks (0.8% buyback yield), with a modest 0.02% dividend — combining for 0.9% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.8%
Dividend Yield
0.02%
Payout Ratio
0.8%
How NVDA Splits Its Return
Buyback 0.8%
Dividend 0.02%Buybacks 0.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.04
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
35.7%
5Y Div CAGR
20.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$40.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
204M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
24.3B
At 0.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.01 | — | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2025 | $0.04 | +17.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| 2024 | $0.03 | +112.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| 2023 | $0.02 | 0.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| 2022 | $0.02 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsNVDA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 79 analysts covering the stock, 60 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $279, implying +41.9% from the current price of $196. The bear case scenario is $83 and the bull case is $465.
02What is the NVDA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NVDA is $279 based on 79 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $400 (+103.6% from today), and the low-end target is $140 (-28.8%). The base case model target is $345.
03Is NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) stock overvalued in 2026?
NVDA trades at 23.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NVDA in 2026 are: (1) Competition from AI Chip Rivals — AMD and Intel are developing their own AI accelerators, while hyperscalers such as Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are creating custom AI chips. (2) Export Restrictions & Antitrust in China — U. (3) Dependence on AI Infrastructure Spending — Nvidia’s growth is heavily tied to AI infrastructure demand. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is NVIDIA Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NVDA will report consensus revenue of $325.8B (+50.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.20 (+46.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $385.1B in revenue.
06When does NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) report its next earnings?
NVIDIA Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-20. Consensus expects EPS of $1.76 and revenue of $78.4B. Over recent quarters, NVDA has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does NVIDIA Corporation generate?
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) generated $96.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 44.8%. NVDA returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.0% yield) and share repurchases ($40.1B TTM).