Upside case
Bull case
$593+181.5%
NVDA would need investors to value it at roughly 66x earnings — about 43x more generous than today's 24x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
79
analysts
60 bullish · 3 bearish · 79 covering NVDA
Strong Buy
2
Buy
58
Hold
16
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$317
+50.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$284 – $593
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
79
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
23.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $5.10T
NVDA price targets
Three scenarios for where NVDA stock could go
Current
~$211
Confidence
61 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $211
Bear
$284
Base
$450
Bull
$593
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$450+113.7%
At 50x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$284+34.6%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push NVDA down roughly 35% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
NVIDIA Corporation
NVDA · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsJanuary year-end
NVIDIA designs and sells graphics processing units (GPUs) and accelerated computing platforms that power artificial intelligence, gaming, and professional visualization applications. The company generates revenue primarily through its Data Center segment — which includes AI chips and systems — accounting for over 70% of sales, supplemented by its Gaming GPU business and professional visualization offerings. NVIDIA's competitive moat stems from its CUDA software ecosystem — which locks developers into its hardware architecture — and its years of architectural leadership in parallel processing for AI workloads.
Market Cap
$5.10T
Revenue TTM
$253.5B
Net Income TTM
$159.6B
Net Margin
63.0%
NVDA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.05/$1.01
Revenue
$46.7B/$46.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.30/$1.26
Revenue
$57.0B/$55.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.62/$1.54
Revenue
$68.1B/$66.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.87/$1.76
Revenue
$81.6B/$78.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.05/$1.01 | +4.0% | $46.7B/$46.0B | +1.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.30/$1.26 | +3.2% | $57.0B/$55.0B | +3.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.62/$1.54 | +5.2% | $68.1B/$66.1B | +3.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.87/$1.76 | +6.3% | $81.6B/$78.4B | +4.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$349.2B
+37.8% YoY
FY2
$495.3B
+41.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.29
+11.5% YoY
FY2
$10.47
+43.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$119.1B
FCF Margin: 47.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
NVDA beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
NVDA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2026
Total disclosed revenue $215.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Data Center
89.7%
+68.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
69.3%
+144.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Data Center is the largest disclosed segment at 89.7% of FY 2026 revenue, up 68.2% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 69.3%, up 144.2% YoY.
NVDA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $520 — implies +146.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
146.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NVDA
43.0x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+76% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
NVDA
43.0x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+48% premium
vs NVDA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
43.0x
vs
5Y Average
63.6x
32% discount
Forward PE
23.6x
S&P 500
18.8x
+25%
Technology
22.3x
+6%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
43.0x
S&P 500
24.4x
+76%
Technology
29.0x
+48%
5Y Avg
63.6x
-32%
PEG Ratio
0.45x
S&P 500
1.66x
-73%
Technology
1.51x
-70%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
38.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+152%
Technology
16.6x
+130%
5Y Avg
52.8x
-27%
Price/FCF
52.8x
S&P 500
20.7x
+155%
Technology
19.2x
+175%
5Y Avg
73.5x
-28%
Price/Sales
23.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+664%
Technology
2.4x
+869%
5Y Avg
22.8x
+4%
Dividend Yield
0.02%
S&P 500
1.91%
-99%
Technology
1.11%
-98%
5Y Avg
0.04%
-57%
| Metric | NVDA | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg NVDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 23.6x | 18.8x+25% | 22.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | 43.0x | 24.4x+76% | 29.0x+48% | 63.6x-32% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.45x | 1.66x-73% | 1.51x-70% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 38.3x | 15.2x+152% | 16.6x+130% | 52.8x-27% |
| Price/FCF | 52.8x | 20.7x+155% | 19.2x+175% | 73.5x-28% |
| Price/Sales | 23.6x | 3.1x+664% | 2.4x+869% | 22.8x |
| Dividend Yield | 0.02% | 1.91% | 1.11% | 0.04% |
NVDA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNVDA Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
NVDA generates $119.1B in free cash flow at a 47.0% margin — 81.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$253.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+70.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
74.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
64.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
63.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.54
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$119.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
47.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
81.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
83.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$10.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$807M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.0× FCF
~0.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
111.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.8%
Dividend
0.0%
Buyback
0.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$40.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.04
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
0.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
24.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageNVDA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Geopolitical Risk
Broadening of China export controls could negatively impact NVIDIA's revenue and market access.
High Risk
Customer CapEx Slowdown
A potential 'digestion' cycle in customer capital expenditures may reduce demand for NVIDIA's products.
Medium
Gaming Segment Slowdown
Legacy drag from a slowdown in the gaming segment could weigh on NVIDIA's overall growth.
Medium
Valuation Risk
Downside stress cases suggest potential de-rating, with some models projecting prices below $100 by 2026.
Lower
Competitive Pressure
Increased competition in AI and GPU markets could challenge NVIDIA's leadership position.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NVDA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
AI computing leadership
NVIDIA is the inventor of the GPU and a leader in AI computing, powering interactive graphics across various devices and platforms.
Strong free cash flow
The company maintains strong free cash flow growth and a low debt load, supporting its long-term bull thesis tied to AI and data center dominance.
Massive revenue potential
NVIDIA's Blackwell and Rubin platforms are expected to generate $0.5 trillion in revenue from 2025 through 2026, highlighting significant market opportunities.
Attractive valuation metrics
NVIDIA's forward P/E of 24.63 suggests a more attractive valuation compared to its trailing P/E, indicating potential for growth.
AI and RTX fusion
The fusion of NVIDIA AI and RTX graphics enhances gaming and applications across desktops, laptops, and cloud platforms, driving adoption.
Long-term market cap potential
A bullish thesis projects NVIDIA could reach a $20 trillion market cap, implying significant upside potential over the next four years.
Hardware moat strength
NVIDIA's hardware moat has played out exceptionally well, reinforcing its competitive advantage in the semiconductor industry.
Bullish price targets
The bull case projects NVIDIA reaching $260-300 per share within 12-18 months, supported by strong growth drivers.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NVDA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$210.69
52W Range Position
73%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$142.03
+48.3% from the low
52-Week High
$236.54
-10.9% from the high
1 Month
-5.25%
3 Month
+16.79%
YTD
+11.6%
1 Year
+44.8%
3Y CAGR
+68.8%
5Y CAGR
+62.4%
10Y CAGR
+67.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NVDA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
23.6x
vs 41.9x median
-44% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+37.8%
vs +9.7% median
+290% above peer median
Net Margin
63.0%
vs 22.3% median
+182% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NVD NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | $5.10T | 23.6x | +37.8% | 63.0% | Buy | +50.4% |
AMD AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | $876.1B | 72.0x | +25.1% | 13.3% | Buy | -15.7% |
INT INTC Intel Corporation | $672.8B | 123.6x | +5.1% | -5.9% | Hold | -33.5% |
QCO QCOM QUALCOMM Incorporated | $238.3B | 21.1x | +4.6% | 22.3% | Hold | -15.5% |
AVG AVGO Broadcom Inc. | $1.96T | 35.5x | +19.9% | 42.2% | Buy | +21.1% |
TXN TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated | $294.0B | 41.9x | +9.7% | 29.1% | Buy | -15.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NVDA Dividend and Capital Return
NVDA returns capital mainly through $40.1B/year in buybacks (0.8% buyback yield), with a modest 0.02% dividend — combining for 0.8% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.8%
Dividend Yield
0.02%
Payout Ratio
0.8%
How NVDA Splits Its Return
Buyback 0.8%
Dividend 0.02%Buybacks 0.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.04
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
35.7%
5Y Div CAGR
20.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$40.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
190M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
24.2B
At 0.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.26 | — | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2025 | $0.04 | +17.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| 2024 | $0.03 | +112.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| 2023 | $0.02 | 0.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| 2022 | $0.02 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsNVDA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 79 analysts covering the stock, 60 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $317, implying +50.4% from the current price of $211. The bear case scenario is $284 and the bull case is $593.
02What is the NVDA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NVDA is $317 based on 79 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $500 (+137.3% from today), and the low-end target is $218 (+3.5%). The base case model target is $450.
03Is NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) stock overvalued in 2026?
NVDA trades at 23.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NVDA in 2026 are: (1) Geopolitical Risk — Broadening of China export controls could negatively impact NVIDIA's revenue and market access. (2) Customer CapEx Slowdown — A potential 'digestion' cycle in customer capital expenditures may reduce demand for NVIDIA's products. (3) Gaming Segment Slowdown — Legacy drag from a slowdown in the gaming segment could weigh on NVIDIA's overall growth. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is NVIDIA Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NVDA will report consensus revenue of $349.2B (+37.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.29 (+11.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $495.3B in revenue.
06When does NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for NVDA is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does NVIDIA Corporation generate?
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) generated $119.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 47.0%. NVDA returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.0% yield) and share repurchases ($40.1B TTM).