Upside case
Bull case
$84-63.8%
The bull case prices ASND at 6x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
25
analysts
23 bullish · 0 bearish · 25 covering ASND
Strong Buy
0
Buy
23
Hold
2
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$288
+24.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$40 – $84
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
25
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
17.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $14.3B
ASND price targets
Three scenarios for where ASND stock could go
Current
~$231
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $231
Bear
$40
Base
$63
Bull
$84
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$63-72.5%
At 5x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$40-82.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 14x multiple contraction could push ASND down roughly 83% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Ascendis Pharma A/S
ASND · NASDAQHealthcareBiotechnologyDecember year-end
Ascendis Pharma is a biopharmaceutical company developing innovative therapies using its proprietary TransCon technology platform. It generates revenue primarily from sales of its approved growth hormone therapy SKYTROFA and through strategic partnerships — with future revenue expected from its pipeline of endocrinology and oncology treatments. The company's key competitive advantage is its TransCon platform, which enables sustained release of therapeutics with improved pharmacokinetics and reduced dosing frequency.
Market Cap
$14.3B
Revenue TTM
$868M
Net Income TTM
$507M
Net Margin
58.4%
ASND Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-90.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.93/$-1.42
Revenue
$186M/$233M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-1.17/$-0.41
Revenue
$250M/$303M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.64/$-0.06
Revenue
$345M/$292M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.32/$0.19
Revenue
$285M/$309M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-0.93/$-1.42 | +34.5% | $186M/$233M | -20.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $-1.17/$-0.41 | -185.4% | $250M/$303M | -17.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.64/$-0.06 | -966.7% | $345M/$292M | +18.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.32/$0.19 | +70.6% | $285M/$309M | -7.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.1B
+23.8% YoY
FY2
$1.3B
+24.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.99
-61.9% YoY
FY2
$3.53
+18.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$42M
FCF Margin: 4.9%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.29
Expected Revenue
$446M
ASND beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
ASND Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $134M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Europe
90.4%
-1.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Europe is the largest reported region at 90.4%, down 1.9% YoY.
ASND Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $98 — implies -57.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
57.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ASND
-55.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
327% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
ASND
-55.4x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
350% discount
vs ASND 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-55.4x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
17.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
-9%
Healthcare
18.3x
-7%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-55.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
-327%
Healthcare
22.1x
-350%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Healthcare
1.59x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Healthcare
14.2x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
284.0x
S&P 500
20.7x
+1272%
Healthcare
18.5x
+1432%
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
17.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+479%
Healthcare
2.6x
+580%
5Y Avg
22.4x
-20%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Healthcare
1.50%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ASND | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg ASND |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 17.1x | 18.8x | 18.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | -55.4x | 24.4x-327% | 22.1x-350% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 14.2x | — |
| Price/FCF | 284.0x | 20.7x+1272% | 18.5x+1432% | — |
| Price/Sales | 17.9x | 3.1x+479% | 2.6x+580% | 22.4x-20% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.50% | — |
ASND trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 4 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolASND Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
Key financial metrics for ASND are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$868M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+135.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
88.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-0.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
58.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$7.85
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$42M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
4.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-69.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
36.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$616M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$256M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.1× FCF
~6.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.1%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$17M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
62M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageASND Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory Risks
Ascendis Pharma faces significant regulatory hurdles as it develops new therapies, which could delay approvals or lead to rejections.
High Risk
Clinical Trial Failures
The company's reliance on innovative technologies like TransCon™ carries high risk of clinical trial setbacks or inefficacy.
Medium
Financial Sustainability
With 90 disclosed risk factors, Ascendis Pharma may struggle with cash burn rates and funding challenges for R&D.
Medium
Competitive Pressure
The biopharmaceutical sector is highly competitive, and Ascendis may face challenges in differentiating its therapies.
Lower
Market Volatility
General market conditions and investor sentiment could impact stock performance, though this is a lower-priority risk.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ASND Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Transcon platform potential
Ascendis Pharma's Transcon platform is highlighted as a key driver, offering innovative solutions in drug delivery and development.
Rare disease pipeline
The company's focus on rare diseases presents significant growth opportunities due to high unmet medical needs and favorable pricing.
Recent trial successes
Positive results from recent clinical trials bolster confidence in the company's ability to bring new therapies to market.
Analyst-backed upside potential
Analysts are bullish on ASND, citing strong upside potential based on its pipeline and platform technology.
Revenue growth improvement
Year-over-year improvements in sales and reduced losses indicate a positive trajectory for the company's financial health.
Stock price appreciation
The stock has shown significant appreciation, reflecting investor confidence in the company's future prospects.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ASND Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$230.83
52W Range Position
78%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$160.86
+43.5% from the low
52-Week High
$250.74
-7.9% from the high
1 Month
-2.87%
3 Month
+1.50%
YTD
+8.2%
1 Year
+35.2%
3Y CAGR
+35.5%
5Y CAGR
+10.4%
10Y CAGR
+32.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ASND vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
17.1x
vs 13.0x median
+31% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+23.8%
vs +10.4% median
+130% above peer median
Net Margin
58.4%
vs 9.8% median
+497% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ASN ASND Ascendis Pharma A/S | $14.3B | 17.1x | +23.8% | 58.4% | Buy | +24.6% |
ION IONS Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $12.2B | — | +8.7% | -30.9% | Buy | +47.7% |
INC INCY Incyte Corporation | $19.6B | 13.0x | +11.3% | 26.7% | Buy | +11.8% |
ALK ALKS Alkermes plc | $7.5B | — | +10.4% | 9.8% | Buy | +10.0% |
JAZ JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc | $14.1B | 8.9x | +9.6% | 0.7% | Buy | +14.6% |
ACA ACAD ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. | $3.7B | 55.6x | +15.9% | 34.3% | Buy | +55.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ASND Dividend and Capital Return
ASND returns 0.1% annually — null% through dividends and 0.1% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$17M
Estimated Shares Retired
72.4K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
62M
FAQ
7 questionsASND Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 2 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $288, implying +24.6% from the current price of $231. The bear case scenario is $40 and the bull case is $84.
02What is the ASND stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ASND is $288 based on 25 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $345 (+49.5% from today), and the low-end target is $250 (+8.3%). The base case model target is $63.
03Is Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) stock overvalued in 2026?
ASND trades at 17.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ASND in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory Risks — Ascendis Pharma faces significant regulatory hurdles as it develops new therapies, which could delay approvals or lead to rejections. (2) Clinical Trial Failures — The company's reliance on innovative technologies like TransCon™ carries high risk of clinical trial setbacks or inefficacy. (3) Financial Sustainability — With 90 disclosed risk factors, Ascendis Pharma may struggle with cash burn rates and funding challenges for R&D. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Ascendis Pharma A/S's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ASND will report consensus revenue of $1.1B (+23.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.99 (-61.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.3B in revenue.
06When does Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) report its next earnings?
Ascendis Pharma A/S is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $1.29 and revenue of $446M. Over recent quarters, ASND has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Ascendis Pharma A/S generate?
Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) generated $42M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.9%. ASND returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($17M TTM).