Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing ASND more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
24
analysts
22 bullish · 0 bearish · 24 covering ASND
Strong Buy
0
Buy
22
Hold
2
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$287
+21.7% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
24
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
59.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $14.5B
ASND price targets
Three scenarios for where ASND stock could go
Current
~$236
Confidence
34 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Ascendis Pharma A/S
ASND · NASDAQHealthcareBiotechnologyDecember year-end
Ascendis Pharma is a biopharmaceutical company developing innovative therapies using its proprietary TransCon technology platform. It generates revenue primarily from sales of its approved growth hormone therapy SKYTROFA and through strategic partnerships — with future revenue expected from its pipeline of endocrinology and oncology treatments. The company's key competitive advantage is its TransCon platform, which enables sustained release of therapeutics with improved pharmacokinetics and reduced dosing frequency.
Market Cap
$14.5B
Revenue TTM
$718M
Net Income TTM
-$228M
Net Margin
-31.7%
ASND Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
55%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-90.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$-1.66/$-1.56
Revenue
$111M/$153M
Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.93/$-1.42
Revenue
$186M/$233M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-1.17/$-0.41
Revenue
$250M/$303M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.64/$-0.06
Revenue
$345M/$292M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $-1.66/$-1.56 | -6.4% | $111M/$153M | -27.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $-0.93/$-1.42 | +34.5% | $186M/$233M | -20.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $-1.17/$-0.41 | -185.4% | $250M/$303M | -17.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.64/$-0.06 | -966.7% | $345M/$292M | +18.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.0B
+43.8% YoY
FY2
$1.4B
+37.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.01
+288.9% YoY
FY2
$9.76
+39.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$43M
FCF Margin: 6.0%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.21
Expected Revenue
$369M
ASND beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
ASND Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $134M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Europe
90.4%
-1.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Europe is the largest reported region at 90.4%, down 1.9% YoY.
ASND Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $193 — implies -12.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
12.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ASND
-55.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
320% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
ASND
-55.5x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
351% discount
vs ASND 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-55.5x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
59.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
+211%
Healthcare
19.0x
+211%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-55.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
-320%
Healthcare
22.1x
-351%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Healthcare
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.3x
—
Healthcare
14.1x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
282.9x
S&P 500
21.3x
+1226%
Healthcare
18.7x
+1416%
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
17.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+469%
Healthcare
2.8x
+526%
5Y Avg
22.4x
-20%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Healthcare
1.40%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ASND | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg ASND |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 59.2x | 19.1x+211% | 19.0x+211% | — |
| Trailing PE | -55.5x | 25.2x-320% | 22.1x-351% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.3x | 14.1x | — |
| Price/FCF | 282.9x | 21.3x+1226% | 18.7x+1416% | — |
| Price/Sales | 17.8x | 3.1x+469% | 2.8x+526% | 22.4x-20% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.40% | — |
ASND trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 4 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolASND Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for ASND are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$718M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+97.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
86.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-19.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-31.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-3.71
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$43M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
6.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-69.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-19.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$616M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$256M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.0× FCF
~6.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.1%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$17M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
61M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageASND Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Financial Health
Ascendis Pharma's financial strength is rated as poor, with a current ratio of 1.02 and a quick ratio of 0.69, indicating challenges in meeting short-term obligations. The debt-to-equity ratio is concerning at -4.23, and the Altman Z-Score of 1.74 places it in the distress zone, suggesting a potential risk of bankruptcy.
High Risk
Operational and Product Risks
A reported death linked to Ascendis Pharma's product, Yorvipath, has negatively impacted the stock, despite management asserting the incident is unrelated to the drug. The company also faces significant risks related to regulatory approvals and clinical trial outcomes.
High Risk
Loss of Exclusivity
Amneal Pharmaceuticals faces a significant challenge with the loss of exclusivity for Rytary in August 2025, which has been a key revenue driver. This loss could lead to a substantial decrease in sales, adversely affecting overall financial performance.
Medium
Manufacturing and Regulatory Issues
Amneal received a warning letter from the FDA for significant violations of manufacturing standards at its Gujarat facility, including the use of contaminated IV bags. This poses serious health risks to patients and could lead to further regulatory scrutiny.
Medium
Market Competition and Pricing Pressures
The generic drug and biosimilar markets are highly competitive, requiring Amneal to effectively differentiate its products. Ongoing pressure to reduce drug prices in the pharmaceutical industry can impact profit margins.
Medium
Dependence on Third-Party Agreements
Amneal's reliance on third-party agreements for a portion of its product offerings presents a risk, as any disruptions in these agreements could affect product availability and revenue.
Lower
Future Growth Ambitions
Ascendis Pharma's Vision 2030 targets €5 billion in revenue, but achieving sustained growth of over 40% CAGR appears ambitious given current financial metrics and market conditions.
Lower
R&D Risks
Both companies face inherent risks in investing in new product development, particularly in complex generics and biosimilars, which may result in failure or underperformance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ASND Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Affordable Medicines Growth
This segment is expected to accelerate in 2026, with projected net revenue growth of 7% to 8%. This acceleration is driven by an increased pace of approvals and launches, including biosimilars and generic versions of established drugs.
Specialty Segment Transition
While the Specialty segment is expected to be flat in 2026 due to generic erosion of Rytary, it is anticipated to return to growth from 2027 as new brands gain traction.
Improved Profitability and Financials
Amneal has shown strong revenue growth, returning to GAAP profitability in 2025, and expanding adjusted EBITDA. The company has also reduced its net leverage and refinanced its debt, leading to lower interest expenses.
Pipeline and Launches
Recent FDA approvals and pipeline launches are expected to drive upside momentum. The company's ability to develop a broad range of products globally is seen as a strength.
Execution and Management
Analysts highlight management's strong execution and track record of delivering on commitments, which supports confidence in achieving 2026 EBITDA targets.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ASND Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$235.90
52W Range Position
85%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$150.89
+56.3% from the low
52-Week High
$250.74
-5.9% from the high
1 Month
+4.06%
3 Month
+6.19%
YTD
+10.6%
1 Year
+44.9%
3Y CAGR
+35.3%
5Y CAGR
+12.2%
10Y CAGR
+30.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ASND vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
59.2x
vs 13.3x median
+344% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+43.8%
vs +11.4% median
+285% above peer median
Net Margin
-31.7%
vs 9.8% median
-425% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ASN ASND Ascendis Pharma A/S | $14.5B | 59.2x | +43.8% | -31.7% | Buy | +21.7% |
ION IONS Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $12.7B | — | +15.0% | -30.9% | Buy | +39.6% |
INC INCY Incyte Corporation | $19.9B | 13.3x | +11.4% | 26.7% | Buy | +9.7% |
ALK ALKS Alkermes plc | $5.9B | — | +7.1% | 9.8% | Buy | +24.6% |
JAZ JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc | $14.3B | 9.5x | +4.4% | 0.7% | Buy | -5.4% |
ACA ACAD ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. | $3.7B | 48.5x | +24.5% | 36.5% | Buy | +61.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ASND Dividend and Capital Return
ASND returns 0.1% annually — null% through dividends and 0.1% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$17M
Estimated Shares Retired
70.8K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
61M
FAQ
7 questionsASND Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 24 analysts covering the stock, 22 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 2 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $287, implying +21.7% from the current price of $236.
02What is the ASND stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ASND is $287 based on 24 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $342 (+45.0% from today), and the low-end target is $250 (+6.0%).
03Is Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) stock overvalued in 2026?
ASND trades at 59.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ASND in 2026 are: (1) Financial Health — Ascendis Pharma's financial strength is rated as poor, with a current ratio of 1. (2) Operational and Product Risks — A reported death linked to Ascendis Pharma's product, Yorvipath, has negatively impacted the stock, despite management asserting the incident is unrelated to the drug. (3) Loss of Exclusivity — Amneal Pharmaceuticals faces a significant challenge with the loss of exclusivity for Rytary in August 2025, which has been a key revenue driver. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Ascendis Pharma A/S's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ASND will report consensus revenue of $1.0B (+43.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.01 (+288.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.4B in revenue.
06When does Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) report its next earnings?
Ascendis Pharma A/S is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $0.21 and revenue of $369M. Over recent quarters, ASND has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Ascendis Pharma A/S generate?
Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) generated $43M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 6.0%. ASND returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($17M TTM).