Upside case
Bull case
$183+86.1%
INCY would need investors to value it at roughly 24x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 13x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Incyte Corporation (INCY) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
44
analysts
23 bullish · 2 bearish · 44 covering INCY
Strong Buy
0
Buy
23
Hold
19
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$110
+11.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$87 – $183
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
44
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
13.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $19.6B
INCY price targets
Three scenarios for where INCY stock could go
Current
~$98
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $98
Bear
$87
Base
$139
Bull
$183
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$139+41.2%
At 18x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$87-11.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push INCY down roughly 11% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Incyte Corporation
INCY · NASDAQHealthcareBiotechnologyDecember year-end
Incyte is a biopharmaceutical company that discovers, develops, and commercializes proprietary therapeutics for oncology and inflammatory diseases. It generates revenue primarily from sales of its flagship drug JAKAFI (ruxolitinib) for myelofibrosis and polycythemia vera — which accounts for the vast majority of its revenue — along with newer oncology products like PEMAZYRE and ICLUSIG. The company's moat lies in its deep expertise in kinase inhibition — particularly JAK inhibitors — and its established commercial infrastructure for hematology-oncology products.
Market Cap
$19.6B
Revenue TTM
$5.4B
Net Income TTM
$1.4B
Net Margin
26.7%
INCY Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-22.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.57/$1.39
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.26/$1.66
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.80/$1.90
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.81/$1.38
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.57/$1.39 | +12.9% | $1.2B/$1.3B | -3.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.26/$1.66 | +36.1% | $1.4B/$1.4B | +0.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.80/$1.90 | -5.3% | $1.5B/$1.4B | +11.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.81/$1.38 | +31.2% | $1.3B/$1.2B | +4.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.0B
+11.3% YoY
FY2
$6.4B
+7.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.45
+7.7% YoY
FY2
$8.19
+9.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.5B
FCF Margin: 27.1%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.80
Expected Revenue
$1.4B
INCY beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
INCY Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $5.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
J A K A F I
71.3%
+10.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
U [S]
93.7%
+20.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
J A K A F I is the largest disclosed segment at 71.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 10.6% YoY.
U [S] is the largest reported region at 93.7%, up 20.0% YoY.
INCY Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $143 — implies +45.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
45.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
INCY
15.3x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
37% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
INCY
15.3x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
31% discount
vs INCY 5Y Avg P/E
Today
15.3x
vs
5Y Average
27.3x
44% discount
Forward PE
13.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
-31%
Healthcare
18.3x
-29%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
15.3x
S&P 500
24.4x
-37%
Healthcare
22.1x
-31%
5Y Avg
27.3x
-44%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Healthcare
1.59x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
-24%
Healthcare
14.2x
-19%
5Y Avg
29.2x
-60%
Price/FCF
14.5x
S&P 500
20.7x
-30%
Healthcare
18.5x
-22%
5Y Avg
30.7x
-53%
Price/Sales
3.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+23%
Healthcare
2.6x
+45%
5Y Avg
4.4x
-13%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Healthcare
1.50%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | INCY | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg INCY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 13.0x | 18.8x-31% | 18.3x-29% | — |
| Trailing PE | 15.3x | 24.4x-37% | 22.1x-31% | 27.3x-44% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.6x | 15.2x-24% | 14.2x-19% | 29.2x-60% |
| Price/FCF | 14.5x | 20.7x-30% | 18.5x-22% | 30.7x-53% |
| Price/Sales | 3.8x | 3.1x+23% | 2.6x+45% | 4.4x-13% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.50% | — |
INCY trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolINCY Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
INCY generates $1.5B in free cash flow at a 27.1% margin — 51.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$5.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+21.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
91.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
26.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
26.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.92
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
27.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
51.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
21.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.1B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$3.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
29.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.1%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$19M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
200M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageINCY Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Revenue Growth Risk
A bear case scenario where Opzelura sales flatten could lead to revenue growth falling to 0-2%, significantly impacting financial performance.
High Risk
Patent Cliff Uncertainty
The long-term outlook is highly uncertain due to the Jakafi patent cliff, which could drastically affect revenue streams beyond five years.
Medium
Stock Price Volatility
The stock price forecast shows significant variability, with bear case estimates as low as $-47, indicating potential downside risk.
Medium
Market Adoption Risk
Bull case scenarios depend on dramatic acceleration in Opzelura adoption, which may not materialize, capping revenue growth potential.
Lower
Valuation Uncertainty
Price targets vary widely ($134 base case to $167 bull case), reflecting uncertainty in earnings growth and valuation multiples.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why INCY Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Positive Phase 3 results
Incyte reported positive topline Phase 3 frontMIND results for tafasitamab (Monjuvi/Minjuvi) and lenalidomide combination, improving progression-free survival in high-risk diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.
Strong financial performance
Incyte's Q4 and full-year 2025 results showed revenue growth to US$1.51 billion and US$5.14 billion, respectively, with higher net income and earnings per share.
Opzelura growth potential
A bull case scenario suggests Opzelura adoption could accelerate dramatically, pushing annual revenue growth toward 10-12%.
Tafasitamab profile expansion
The successful Phase 3 frontMIND trial strengthens tafasitamab's profile beyond its existing indications in relapsed or refractory settings.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
INCY Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$98.22
52W Range Position
69%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$66.74
+47.2% from the low
52-Week High
$112.29
-12.5% from the high
1 Month
+3.18%
3 Month
+6.48%
YTD
-3.2%
1 Year
+43.9%
3Y CAGR
+16.7%
5Y CAGR
+3.2%
10Y CAGR
+2.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
INCY vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
13.0x
vs 8.9x median
+47% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+11.3%
vs +10.4% median
+9% above peer median
Net Margin
26.7%
vs 9.8% median
+173% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
INC INCY Incyte Corporation | $19.6B | 13.0x | +11.3% | 26.7% | Buy | +11.8% |
ALK ALKS Alkermes plc | $7.5B | — | +10.4% | 9.8% | Buy | +10.0% |
JAZ JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc | $14.1B | 8.9x | +9.6% | 0.7% | Buy | +14.6% |
EXE EXEL Exelixis, Inc. | $13.2B | 14.7x | +13.0% | 35.1% | Buy | -8.8% |
HAL HALO Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. | $8.1B | 8.5x | +17.9% | 23.1% | Buy | +28.7% |
ION IONS Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $12.2B | — | +8.7% | -30.9% | Buy | +47.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
INCY Dividend and Capital Return
INCY does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$19M
Estimated Shares Retired
194.5K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
200M
FAQ
7 questionsINCY Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Incyte Corporation (INCY) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Incyte Corporation (INCY) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 44 analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 19 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $110, implying +11.8% from the current price of $98. The bear case scenario is $87 and the bull case is $183.
02What is the INCY stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for INCY is $110 based on 44 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $140 (+42.5% from today), and the low-end target is $90 (-8.4%). The base case model target is $139.
03Is Incyte Corporation (INCY) stock overvalued in 2026?
INCY trades at 13.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Incyte Corporation (INCY) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for INCY in 2026 are: (1) Revenue Growth Risk — A bear case scenario where Opzelura sales flatten could lead to revenue growth falling to 0-2%, significantly impacting financial performance. (2) Patent Cliff Uncertainty — The long-term outlook is highly uncertain due to the Jakafi patent cliff, which could drastically affect revenue streams beyond five years. (3) Stock Price Volatility — The stock price forecast shows significant variability, with bear case estimates as low as $-47, indicating potential downside risk. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Incyte Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates INCY will report consensus revenue of $6.0B (+11.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.45 (+7.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $6.4B in revenue.
06When does Incyte Corporation (INCY) report its next earnings?
Incyte Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $1.80 and revenue of $1.4B. Over recent quarters, INCY has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Incyte Corporation generate?
Incyte Corporation (INCY) generated $1.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 27.1%. INCY returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($19M TTM).