Upside case
Bull case
$1635+3930.8%
ASX would need investors to value it at roughly 49x earnings — about 48x more generous than today's 1x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. (ASX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
5
analysts
4 bullish · 1 bearish · 5 covering ASX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
4
Hold
0
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
—
— vs today
Scenario Range
$782 – $1635
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
5
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
1.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $88.7B
ASX price targets
Three scenarios for where ASX stock could go
Current
~$41
Confidence
47 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $41
Bear
$782
Base
$1241
Bull
$1635
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$1241+2959.2%
At 37x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$782+1827.3%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push ASX down roughly 1827% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd.
ASX · NYSETechnologySemiconductorsDecember year-end
ASE Technology Holding is a leading semiconductor packaging and testing company that provides outsourced manufacturing services for chipmakers. It generates revenue primarily from semiconductor packaging services (roughly 70% of sales) and testing services (about 30%), serving global semiconductor companies that prefer to outsource these capital-intensive back-end processes. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive scale—it's the world's largest semiconductor packaging and testing provider—and its deep technical expertise in advanced packaging technologies that enable next-generation chips.
Market Cap
$88.7B
Revenue TTM
$666.1B
Net Income TTM
$47.1B
Net Margin
7.1%
ASX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.11/$0.14
Revenue
$5.2B/$4.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.16/$0.14
Revenue
$5.6B/$5.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.21/$0.20
Revenue
$5.6B/$5.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.20/$0.17
Revenue
$5.5B/$5.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.11/$0.14 | -23.2% | $5.2B/$4.8B | +8.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.16/$0.14 | +16.3% | $5.6B/$5.4B | +3.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.21/$0.20 | +5.0% | $5.6B/$5.6B | +0.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.20/$0.17 | +17.4% | $5.5B/$5.3B | +3.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$746.5B
+12.1% YoY
FY2
$873.3B
+17.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$23.66
+12.6% YoY
FY2
$27.57
+16.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$6.2B
FCF Margin: -0.9%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.24
Expected Revenue
$5.9B
ASX beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
ASX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $644.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
56.8%
+2.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 56.8%, up 2.0% YoY.
ASX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $1783 — implies +4296.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
4296.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ASX
69.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+184% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
ASX
69.4x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+139% premium
vs ASX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
69.4x
vs
5Y Average
0.5x
+12654% premium
Forward PE
1.2x
S&P 500
18.8x
-94%
Technology
22.3x
-95%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
69.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
+184%
Technology
29.0x
+139%
5Y Avg
0.5x
+12654%
PEG Ratio
8.78x
S&P 500
1.66x
+429%
Technology
1.51x
+483%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
25.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
+64%
Technology
16.6x
+50%
5Y Avg
1.4x
+1691%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Technology
19.2x
—
5Y Avg
2.6x
—
Price/Sales
4.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+40%
Technology
2.4x
+77%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+12078%
Dividend Yield
0.82%
S&P 500
1.91%
-57%
Technology
1.11%
-26%
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ASX | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg ASX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 1.2x | 18.8x-94% | 22.3x-95% | — |
| Trailing PE | 69.4x | 24.4x+184% | 29.0x+139% | 0.5x+12654% |
| PEG Ratio | 8.78x | 1.66x+429% | 1.51x+483% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.0x | 15.2x+64% | 16.6x+50% | 1.4x+1691% |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 19.2x | 2.6x |
| Price/Sales | 4.3x | 3.1x+40% | 2.4x+77% | 0.0x+12078% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.82% | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
ASX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolASX Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
Key financial metrics for ASX are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$666.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
18.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
8.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$21.01
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$6.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-0.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$92.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$171.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
13.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.8%
Dividend
0.8%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$10.46
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
56.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
2.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageASX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Profitability concerns
Despite a significant earnings surprise, the margin collapse raises serious questions about the sustainability of ASE Technology's profitability.
Medium
Market reaction
The stock fell 2.5% despite strong earnings and revenue beats, indicating investor skepticism about future performance.
Lower
Information timeliness
ASEH provides historical information without commitment to updates, which may lead to outdated data influencing decisions.
Medium
Industry competition
As a leading provider in semiconductor manufacturing services, ASE faces intense competition which could pressure margins further.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ASX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
AI-driven semiconductor demand
ASE Technology is strategically positioned at the center of the AI revolution, providing critical advanced packaging solutions for high-performance computing.
Earnings rebound from ATM demand
Surging demand for ATM services has driven a massive earnings rebound, as highlighted in the Q1 2026 earnings review.
Market leadership in OSAT
ASE Technology is the world's largest provider of outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) services, offering complete turnkey solutions.
Strong revenue growth outlook
Analysts project a 12.1% revenue growth, with an EPS FY+1 estimate of $23.66 and a target price of $1241, indicating strong future performance.
Transition to higher margins
The company is transitioning from low-margin outsourced semiconductor services to higher-margin opportunities, bolstering its investment appeal.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ASX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$40.56
52W Range Position
98%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$9.30
+336.1% from the low
52-Week High
$41.10
-1.3% from the high
1 Month
+28.15%
3 Month
+87.26%
YTD
+140.6%
1 Year
+290.4%
3Y CAGR
+66.4%
5Y CAGR
+37.6%
10Y CAGR
+22.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ASX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
1.2x
vs 46.5x median
-97% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+12.1%
vs +5.7% median
+112% above peer median
Net Margin
7.1%
vs 3.9% median
+80% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ASX ASX ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. | $88.7B | 1.2x | +12.1% | 7.1% | Buy | — |
AMK AMKR Amkor Technology, Inc. | $22.4B | 43.5x | +4.8% | 6.2% | Hold | -16.0% |
TFI TFII TFI International Inc. | $11.9B | 27.3x | +5.7% | 3.9% | Buy | +1.3% |
ONT ONTO Onto Innovation Inc. | $16.6B | 46.5x | +11.5% | 10.3% | Buy | +1.5% |
ICH ICHR Ichor Holdings, Ltd. | $3.4B | 71.5x | +8.5% | -5.3% | Buy | -44.6% |
COH COHU Cohu, Inc. | $3.3B | 119.3x | +3.3% | -11.5% | Buy | -28.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ASX Dividend and Capital Return
ASX returns 0.8% total yield, led by a 0.82% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.82%
Payout Ratio
56.7%
How ASX Splits Its Return
Div 0.82%
Dividend 0.82%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$10.46
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
-8.7%
5Y Div CAGR
21.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
1 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.2B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $0.36 | +12.6% | 0.0% | 65.0% |
| 2024 | $0.32 | -43.8% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 2023 | $0.56 | +20.5% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 2022 | $0.47 | +55.4% | 1.5% | 100.0% |
| 2021 | $0.30 | +120.5% | 32.1% | 100.0% |
FAQ
6 questionsASX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. (ASX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. (ASX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 5 analysts covering the stock, 4 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 0 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The bear case scenario is $782 and the bull case is $1635.
02Is ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. (ASX) stock overvalued in 2026?
ASX trades at 1.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
03What are the main risks for ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. (ASX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ASX in 2026 are: (1) Profitability concerns — Despite a significant earnings surprise, the margin collapse raises serious questions about the sustainability of ASE Technology's profitability. (2) Market reaction — The stock fell 2. (3) Industry competition — As a leading provider in semiconductor manufacturing services, ASE faces intense competition which could pressure margins further. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
04What is ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ASX will report consensus revenue of $746.5B (+12.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $23.66 (+12.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $873.3B in revenue.
05When does ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. (ASX) report its next earnings?
ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $0.24 and revenue of $5.9B. Over recent quarters, ASX has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
06How much free cash flow does ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. generate?
ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. (ASX) had a free cash outflow of $6.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 0.9%. ASX returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.8% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).