Upside case
Bull case
$271-2.4%
The bull case prices HWM at 54x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
24
analysts
20 bullish · 1 bearish · 24 covering HWM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
3
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$297
+7.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$130 – $271
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
24
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
54.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $111.1B
HWM price targets
Three scenarios for where HWM stock could go
Current
~$278
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $278
Bear
$130
Base
$206
Bull
$271
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$206-25.9%
At 41x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$130-53.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 29x multiple contraction could push HWM down roughly 53% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Howmet Aerospace Inc.
HWM · NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachineryDecember year-end
Howmet Aerospace is a specialized manufacturer of advanced engineered components for aerospace and commercial transportation industries. It generates revenue primarily through four segments: Engine Products (~40% of sales), Fastening Systems (~25%), Engineered Structures (~20%), and Forged Wheels (~15%). The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep technical expertise in metallurgy and precision manufacturing—particularly in titanium and aluminum alloys—which creates high barriers to entry in aerospace supply chains.
Market Cap
$111.1B
Revenue TTM
$8.6B
Net Income TTM
$1.7B
Net Margin
20.2%
HWM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.91/$0.87
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.95/$0.91
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.05/$0.96
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.86/$1.11
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.91/$0.87 | +4.4% | $2.1B/$2.0B | +2.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.95/$0.91 | +4.4% | $2.1B/$2.0B | +2.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.05/$0.96 | +8.8% | $2.2B/$2.1B | +2.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.86/$1.11 | -22.5% | $2.3B/$2.2B | +3.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$9.4B
+8.6% YoY
FY2
$10.4B
+11.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.28
-1.0% YoY
FY2
$4.57
+6.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.4B
FCF Margin: 16.6%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.21
Expected Revenue
$2.4B
HWM beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
HWM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $6.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Engine Products Segment
71.2%
+15.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
60.6%
+17.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Engine Products Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 71.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 15.6% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 60.6%, up 17.9% YoY.
HWM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fair versus peers
Fair value est. $291 — implies +4.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
4.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HWM
74.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+206% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
HWM
74.8x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+193% premium
vs HWM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
74.8x
vs
5Y Average
42.6x
+76% premium
Forward PE
54.9x
S&P 500
18.8x
+192%
Industrials
21.2x
+159%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
74.8x
S&P 500
24.4x
+206%
Industrials
25.6x
+193%
5Y Avg
42.6x
+76%
PEG Ratio
1.48x
S&P 500
1.66x
-11%
Industrials
1.65x
-10%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
47.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
+209%
Industrials
13.9x
+238%
5Y Avg
21.6x
+118%
Price/FCF
77.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
+275%
Industrials
20.0x
+287%
5Y Avg
44.6x
+74%
Price/Sales
13.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+335%
Industrials
1.6x
+762%
5Y Avg
5.0x
+167%
Dividend Yield
0.16%
S&P 500
1.91%
-92%
Industrials
1.21%
-87%
5Y Avg
0.23%
-30%
| Metric | HWM | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg HWM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 54.9x | 18.8x+192% | 21.2x+159% | — |
| Trailing PE | 74.8x | 24.4x+206% | 25.6x+193% | 42.6x+76% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.48x | 1.66x-11% | 1.65x-10% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 47.0x | 15.2x+209% | 13.9x+238% | 21.6x+118% |
| Price/FCF | 77.6x | 20.7x+275% | 20.0x+287% | 44.6x+74% |
| Price/Sales | 13.5x | 3.1x+335% | 1.6x+762% | 5.0x+167% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.16% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 0.23% |
HWM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHWM Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
HWM generates $1.4B in free cash flow at a 16.6% margin — 21.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+14.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
32.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
27.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
20.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.33
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
16.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
21.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
15.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$742M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.6× FCF
~1.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
33.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.8%
Dividend
0.2%
Buyback
0.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$755M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.45
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
12.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
400M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageHWM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Medium
Earnings volatility
Despite strong Q1 2026 earnings beating expectations, future earnings may face volatility due to market and demand fluctuations.
High Risk
Aerospace demand risk
Howmet's heavy reliance on aerospace and defense sectors exposes it to cyclical demand downturns or industry slowdowns.
Medium
Guidance overreliance
Management's raised full-year guidance may create elevated expectations, risking disappointment if execution falters or macro conditions worsen.
Lower
Competitive pressures
As a leader in engineered metal products, Howmet faces intense competition in aerospace and commercial transportation markets.
High Risk
Macroeconomic sensitivity
Global economic downturns or trade disruptions could negatively impact demand in Howmet's core aerospace and defense end markets.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HWM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Market expansion with drones and AI
Howmet Aerospace is expanding its market presence through investments in drones and AI solutions, enhancing its growth potential.
Strong operational execution
The company's capacity investments and operational efficiency are key drivers of its bullish outlook.
Leadership in aerospace engineering
As a global leader in advanced engineered solutions for aerospace and transportation, Howmet Aerospace has a competitive edge.
Attractive valuation metrics
With trailing and forward P/E ratios indicating growth potential, the stock presents a compelling investment case.
Bullish investor sentiment
Positive analyst and investor sentiment, including bullish theses, highlight confidence in Howmet Aerospace's future performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HWM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$277.66
52W Range Position
89%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$169.06
+64.2% from the low
52-Week High
$290.63
-4.5% from the high
1 Month
+8.04%
3 Month
+14.77%
YTD
+31.2%
1 Year
+63.1%
3Y CAGR
+81.3%
5Y CAGR
+52.9%
10Y CAGR
+29.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HWM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
54.9x
vs 45.6x median
+21% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.6%
vs +9.5% median
-10% below peer median
Net Margin
20.2%
vs 9.3% median
+118% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HWM HWM Howmet Aerospace Inc. | $111.1B | 54.9x | +8.6% | 20.2% | Buy | +7.1% |
TDG TDG TransDigm Group Incorporated | $75.0B | 33.2x | +11.7% | 21.6% | Buy | +18.1% |
CW CW Curtiss-Wright Corporation | $28.5B | 50.7x | +9.5% | 14.2% | Buy | -4.0% |
KTO KTOS Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. | $10.2B | 70.9x | +14.5% | 2.1% | Buy | +102.9% |
ATI ATI ATI Inc. | $27.6B | 45.6x | +5.0% | 9.3% | Buy | -13.1% |
DRS DRS Leonardo DRS, Inc. | $12.3B | 35.7x | +9.2% | 7.8% | Buy | +15.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HWM Dividend and Capital Return
HWM returns capital mainly through $755M/year in buybacks (0.7% buyback yield), with a modest 0.16% dividend — combining for 0.8% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 5 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.7%
Dividend Yield
0.16%
Payout Ratio
12.0%
How HWM Splits Its Return
Div 0.16%
Buyback 0.7%
Dividend 0.16%Buybacks 0.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.45
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
63.9%
5Y Div CAGR
85.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$755M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
400M
At 0.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.24 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.44 | +69.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2024 | $0.26 | +52.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% |
| 2023 | $0.17 | +70.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% |
| 2022 | $0.10 | +150.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsHWM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 24 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $297, implying +7.1% from the current price of $278. The bear case scenario is $130 and the bull case is $271.
02What is the HWM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HWM is $297 based on 24 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $330 (+18.9% from today), and the low-end target is $228 (-17.9%). The base case model target is $206.
03Is Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) stock overvalued in 2026?
HWM trades at 54.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fair versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HWM in 2026 are: (1) Aerospace demand risk — Howmet's heavy reliance on aerospace and defense sectors exposes it to cyclical demand downturns or industry slowdowns. (2) Macroeconomic sensitivity — Global economic downturns or trade disruptions could negatively impact demand in Howmet's core aerospace and defense end markets. (3) Earnings volatility — Despite strong Q1 2026 earnings beating expectations, future earnings may face volatility due to market and demand fluctuations. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Howmet Aerospace Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HWM will report consensus revenue of $9.4B (+8.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.28 (-1.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $10.4B in revenue.
06When does Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) report its next earnings?
Howmet Aerospace Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $1.21 and revenue of $2.4B. Over recent quarters, HWM has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Howmet Aerospace Inc. generate?
Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) generated $1.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 16.6%. HWM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.2% yield) and share repurchases ($755M TTM).