Upside case
Bull case
$282+9.8%
HWM would need investors to value it at roughly 61x earnings — about 5x more generous than today's 55x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
23
analysts
19 bullish · 1 bearish · 23 covering HWM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
19
Hold
3
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$275
+7.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$68 – $282
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
23
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
55.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $102.8B
HWM price targets
Three scenarios for where HWM stock could go
Current
~$256
Confidence
62 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $256
Bear
$68
Base
$354
Bull
$282
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$354+37.9%
At 76x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$68-73.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 41x multiple contraction could push HWM down roughly 74% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Howmet Aerospace Inc.
HWM · NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachineryDecember year-end
Howmet Aerospace is a specialized manufacturer of advanced engineered components for aerospace and commercial transportation industries. It generates revenue primarily through four segments: Engine Products (~40% of sales), Fastening Systems (~25%), Engineered Structures (~20%), and Forged Wheels (~15%). The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep technical expertise in metallurgy and precision manufacturing—particularly in titanium and aluminum alloys—which creates high barriers to entry in aerospace supply chains.
Market Cap
$102.8B
Revenue TTM
$8.3B
Net Income TTM
$1.5B
Net Margin
18.3%
HWM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.86/$0.78
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.91/$0.87
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.95/$0.91
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.05/$0.96
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.86/$0.78 | +10.8% | $1.9B/$1.9B | +0.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.91/$0.87 | +4.4% | $2.1B/$2.0B | +2.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.95/$0.91 | +4.4% | $2.1B/$2.0B | +2.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.05/$0.96 | +8.8% | $2.2B/$2.1B | +2.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$9.3B
+12.1% YoY
FY2
$10.3B
+11.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.41
+18.1% YoY
FY2
$5.12
+16.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.2B
FCF Margin: 14.7%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.11
Expected Revenue
$2.2B
HWM beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
HWM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $6.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Engine Products Segment
71.2%
+15.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
60.6%
+17.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Engine Products Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 71.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 15.6% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 60.6%, up 17.9% YoY.
HWM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $158 — implies -33.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
33.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HWM
69.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+174% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
HWM
69.1x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
+167% premium
vs HWM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
69.1x
vs
5Y Average
42.6x
+62% premium
Forward PE
55.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
+190%
Industrials
20.8x
+165%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
69.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
+174%
Industrials
25.9x
+167%
5Y Avg
42.6x
+62%
PEG Ratio
1.37x
S&P 500
1.75x
-22%
Industrials
1.59x
-14%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
43.6x
S&P 500
15.3x
+186%
Industrials
13.9x
+214%
5Y Avg
21.6x
+102%
Price/FCF
71.8x
S&P 500
21.3x
+237%
Industrials
20.6x
+248%
5Y Avg
44.6x
+61%
Price/Sales
12.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+298%
Industrials
1.6x
+684%
5Y Avg
5.0x
+147%
Dividend Yield
0.17%
S&P 500
1.88%
-91%
Industrials
1.24%
-86%
5Y Avg
0.23%
-24%
| Metric | HWM | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg HWM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 55.2x | 19.1x+190% | 20.8x+165% | — |
| Trailing PE | 69.1x | 25.2x+174% | 25.9x+167% | 42.6x+62% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.37x | 1.75x-22% | 1.59x-14% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 43.6x | 15.3x+186% | 13.9x+214% | 21.6x+102% |
| Price/FCF | 71.8x | 21.3x+237% | 20.6x+248% | 44.6x+61% |
| Price/Sales | 12.5x | 3.1x+298% | 1.6x+684% | 5.0x+147% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.17% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 0.23% |
HWM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHWM Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
HWM generates $1.2B in free cash flow at a 14.7% margin — 21.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+11.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
30.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
25.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
18.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.73
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
14.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
21.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
13.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$742M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.9× FCF
~1.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
28.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.9%
Dividend
0.2%
Buyback
0.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$755M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.45
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
12.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
406M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageHWM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Customer Concentration
Howmet’s revenue is heavily weighted toward major aerospace customers such as Boeing and Airbus. 2024 production issues at Boeing forced Howmet to revise its 2025 revenue outlook more conservatively, illustrating the direct impact of customer disruptions.
High Risk
Supply Chain Disruptions
Ongoing shortages of parts, skilled labor, and raw materials limit Howmet’s output and its ability to scale production to meet demand. Production bottlenecks have already constrained order fulfillment and could erode margins.
Medium
Market Volatility & Economic Conditions
The company’s performance is tightly linked to the health of the aerospace, defense, and commercial transportation sectors. A downturn in global economic or financial markets, or a slump in commercial air travel, could materially reduce revenue.
Medium
Raw Material Costs & Inflation
Howmet’s profitability is sensitive to fluctuations in raw material prices and overall inflation. Rising input costs could squeeze margins if the company cannot pass costs onto customers.
Lower
Valuation Risk
Howmet’s shares trade at a premium relative to historical averages and peer comparables, raising the risk that the stock may be overvalued. A market correction could lead to a significant decline in share price.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HWM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Revenue Growth
Howmet Aerospace posted an 11% increase in full‑year 2025 revenue to $8.25 billion, and a 15% year‑over‑year jump in Q4 2025 revenue to $2.17 billion. The growth is driven by strong demand in commercial aerospace, defense aerospace, and gas turbines.
Consistent Earnings Beats
The company has never missed an EPS estimate since 2020, delivering a $0.86 EPS in Q1 2025—an 11.6% surprise over consensus. Across the trailing four quarters, the average earnings surprise is 8.8%.
Strong Profitability Metrics
Howmet Aerospace enjoys a return on equity exceeding 30%, and a full‑year EBITDA margin of 29.3%. In Q4, the exit rate reached 30.1%, underscoring efficient cost management.
Healthy Free Cash Flow
The firm generated $1.43 billion in free cash flow for 2025, surpassing guidance by more than $100 million. Its net‑income conversion rate stands at 93%, reflecting robust cash generation.
Engine Spares Demand Surge
Demand for engine spare parts grew 33% for the full year, with the spares segment now representing 21% of total revenue. This trend supports continued revenue expansion in both OEM and aftermarket channels.
Positive 2026 Outlook
Management projects 2026 revenue of $9.1 billion, EBITDA of $2.76 billion, EPS of $4.45, and free cash flow of $1.6 billion. The guidance targets double‑digit growth, margin expansion, and robust cash flow.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HWM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$256.43
52W Range Position
91%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$150.63
+70.2% from the low
52-Week High
$267.31
-4.1% from the high
1 Month
+8.39%
3 Month
+14.91%
YTD
+21.1%
1 Year
+64.6%
3Y CAGR
+80.2%
5Y CAGR
+51.4%
10Y CAGR
+28.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HWM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
55.2x
vs 38.5x median
+43% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+12.1%
vs +11.0% median
+10% above peer median
Net Margin
18.3%
vs 9.3% median
+97% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HWM HWM Howmet Aerospace Inc. | $102.8B | 55.2x | +12.1% | 18.3% | Buy | +7.1% |
TDG TDG TransDigm Group Incorporated | $69.7B | 31.8x | +12.6% | 21.6% | Buy | +31.1% |
CW CW Curtiss-Wright Corporation | $27.4B | 49.3x | +11.0% | 13.8% | Buy | -4.6% |
KTO KTOS Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. | $11.5B | 79.3x | +19.2% | 2.1% | Buy | +79.7% |
ATI ATI ATI Inc. | $22.6B | 38.5x | +6.6% | 9.3% | Buy | +5.0% |
DRS DRS Leonardo DRS, Inc. | $11.1B | 33.3x | +9.7% | 7.8% | Buy | +26.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HWM Dividend and Capital Return
HWM returns capital mainly through $755M/year in buybacks (0.8% buyback yield), with a modest 0.18% dividend — combining for 1.0% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 5 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.8%
Dividend Yield
0.18%
Payout Ratio
12.0%
How HWM Splits Its Return
Div 0.18%
Buyback 0.8%
Dividend 0.18%Buybacks 0.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.45
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
63.9%
5Y Div CAGR
85.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$755M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
406M
At 0.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.24 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.44 | +69.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 2024 | $0.26 | +52.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% |
| 2023 | $0.17 | +70.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% |
| 2022 | $0.10 | +150.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsHWM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 23 analysts covering the stock, 19 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $275, implying +7.1% from the current price of $256. The bear case scenario is $68 and the bull case is $282.
02What is the HWM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HWM is $275 based on 23 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $315 (+22.8% from today), and the low-end target is $228 (-11.1%). The base case model target is $354.
03Is Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) stock overvalued in 2026?
HWM trades at 55.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HWM in 2026 are: (1) Customer Concentration — Howmet’s revenue is heavily weighted toward major aerospace customers such as Boeing and Airbus. (2) Supply Chain Disruptions — Ongoing shortages of parts, skilled labor, and raw materials limit Howmet’s output and its ability to scale production to meet demand. (3) Market Volatility & Economic Conditions — The company’s performance is tightly linked to the health of the aerospace, defense, and commercial transportation sectors. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Howmet Aerospace Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HWM will report consensus revenue of $9.3B (+12.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.41 (+18.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $10.3B in revenue.
06When does Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) report its next earnings?
Howmet Aerospace Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $1.11 and revenue of $2.2B. Over recent quarters, HWM has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Howmet Aerospace Inc. generate?
Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) generated $1.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 14.7%. HWM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.2% yield) and share repurchases ($755M TTM).