Upside case
Bull case
$343-41.5%
The bull case prices CRS at 32x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
21
analysts
14 bullish · 1 bearish · 21 covering CRS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
14
Hold
6
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$466
-20.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$164 – $343
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
21
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
55.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $29.1B
CRS price targets
Three scenarios for where CRS stock could go
Current
~$586
Confidence
45 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $586
Bear
$164
Base
$261
Bull
$343
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$261-55.6%
At 25x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$164-72.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 40x multiple contraction could push CRS down roughly 72% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Carpenter Technology Corporation
CRS · NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationJune year-end
Carpenter Technology is a specialty metals manufacturer that produces high-performance alloys for demanding applications in aerospace, medical, and industrial markets. It generates revenue primarily from selling specialty alloys—including titanium, stainless steels, and powder metals—through its two main segments: Specialty Alloys Operations and Performance Engineered Products. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep metallurgical expertise, proprietary manufacturing processes, and long-standing relationships with aerospace and medical OEMs that require certified, high-reliability materials.
Market Cap
$29.1B
Revenue TTM
$3.0B
Net Income TTM
$479M
Net Margin
15.8%
CRS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+11.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.21/$2.07
Revenue
$756M/$793M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.43/$2.13
Revenue
$734M/$718M
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.33/$2.22
Revenue
$728M/$691M
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.77/$2.63
Revenue
$812M/$797M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.21/$2.07 | +6.8% | $756M/$793M | -4.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.43/$2.13 | +14.1% | $734M/$718M | +2.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.33/$2.22 | +5.0% | $728M/$691M | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.77/$2.63 | +5.3% | $812M/$797M | +1.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.2B
+6.7% YoY
FY2
$3.4B
+6.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.06
-25.9% YoY
FY2
$5.79
-18.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$407M
FCF Margin: 13.5%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.01
Expected Revenue
$862M
CRS beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CRS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Aerospace And Defense Markets
61.5%
+14.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
59.1%
+4.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Aerospace And Defense Markets is the largest disclosed segment at 61.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 14.9% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 59.1%, up 4.7% YoY.
CRS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $321 — implies -45.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
45.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CRS
79.0x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+223% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
CRS
79.0x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+209% premium
vs CRS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
79.0x
vs
5Y Average
38.7x
+104% premium
Forward PE
55.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
+195%
Industrials
21.2x
+162%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
79.0x
S&P 500
24.4x
+223%
Industrials
25.6x
+209%
5Y Avg
38.7x
+104%
PEG Ratio
0.36x
S&P 500
1.66x
-78%
Industrials
1.65x
-78%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
44.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+194%
Industrials
13.9x
+222%
5Y Avg
16.6x
+169%
Price/FCF
101.8x
S&P 500
20.7x
+392%
Industrials
20.0x
+408%
5Y Avg
31.0x
+229%
Price/Sales
10.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
+228%
Industrials
1.6x
+548%
5Y Avg
2.0x
+406%
Dividend Yield
0.14%
S&P 500
1.91%
-93%
Industrials
1.21%
-89%
5Y Avg
1.47%
-91%
| Metric | CRS | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg CRS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 55.4x | 18.8x+195% | 21.2x+162% | — |
| Trailing PE | 79.0x | 24.4x+223% | 25.6x+209% | 38.7x+104% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.36x | 1.66x-78% | 1.65x-78% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 44.7x | 15.2x+194% | 13.9x+222% | 16.6x+169% |
| Price/FCF | 101.8x | 20.7x+392% | 20.0x+408% | 31.0x+229% |
| Price/Sales | 10.1x | 3.1x+228% | 1.6x+548% | 2.0x+406% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.14% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 1.47% |
CRS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCRS Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CRS generates $407M in free cash flow at a 13.5% margin — 17.5% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
29.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
21.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
15.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.52
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$407M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
13.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
17.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
13.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$316M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$423M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.0× FCF
~1.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
24.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.5%
Dividend
0.1%
Buyback
0.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$102M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.79
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
10.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
50M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCRS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Valuation de-rating
The bear case price target of $652 suggests significant downside risk if growth expectations are not met.
Medium
Revenue growth uncertainty
The company's revenue growth trajectory is unclear, raising concerns about future performance.
High Risk
Operational execution risk
Despite raising guidance, achieving the projected operating income of $680-$700 million may be challenging.
Medium
Market competition
With 130+ years of leadership, maintaining competitive edge in alloy solutions is critical but uncertain.
Lower
Dividend sustainability
The recent $0.20 quarterly dividend may face pressure if earnings decline.
High Risk
SEC filing risks
The company's SEC filings highlight material risks that could adversely impact results.
Medium
Share repurchase impact
Ongoing share repurchases may not offset broader market or operational risks.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CRS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong aerospace demand
Carpenter Technology reports a 31% increase in adjusted operating income, driven by robust demand in the aerospace sector.
Strategic long-term agreements
The company's financial performance is bolstered by strategic long-term agreements, ensuring stable revenue streams.
Material and process leadership
With over 130 years of expertise, Carpenter Technology provides advanced alloy solutions for critical applications.
Investor relations transparency
The company offers comprehensive investor relations, including financial updates and corporate governance details.
SEC filing accessibility
MarketBeat provides easy access to Carpenter Technology's complete SEC filing history, enhancing investor confidence.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CRS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$586.47
52W Range Position
98%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$228.00
+157.2% from the low
52-Week High
$593.18
-1.1% from the high
1 Month
+45.07%
3 Month
+51.36%
YTD
+73.3%
1 Year
+133.7%
3Y CAGR
+124.1%
5Y CAGR
+70.8%
10Y CAGR
+32.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CRS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
55.4x
vs 16.0x median
+247% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.7%
vs +6.7% median
+0% above peer median
Net Margin
15.8%
vs 7.2% median
+119% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CRS CRS Carpenter Technology Corporation | $29.1B | 55.4x | +6.7% | 15.8% | Buy | -20.6% |
ATI ATI ATI Inc. | $27.6B | 45.6x | +5.0% | 9.3% | Buy | -13.1% |
HWM HWM Howmet Aerospace Inc. | $111.1B | 54.9x | +8.6% | 20.2% | Buy | +7.1% |
NUE NUE Nucor Corporation | $55.5B | 16.0x | +6.7% | 6.8% | Buy | -1.7% |
STL STLD Steel Dynamics, Inc. | $36.2B | 15.4x | +11.5% | 7.2% | Buy | -5.9% |
CMC CMC Commercial Metals Company | $8.0B | 11.3x | +3.8% | 5.5% | Buy | +13.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CRS Dividend and Capital Return
CRS returns capital mainly through $102M/year in buybacks (0.3% buyback yield), with a modest 0.14% dividend — combining for 0.5% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.3%
Dividend Yield
0.14%
Payout Ratio
10.7%
How CRS Splits Its Return
Div 0.14%
Buyback 0.3%
Dividend 0.14%Buybacks 0.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.79
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.0%
5Y Div CAGR
0.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$102M
Estimated Shares Retired
173.8K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
50M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.80 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% |
| 2024 | $0.80 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| 2023 | $0.80 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.4% |
| 2022 | $0.80 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsCRS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 21 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $466, implying -20.6% from the current price of $586. The bear case scenario is $164 and the bull case is $343.
02What is the CRS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CRS is $466 based on 21 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $500 (-14.7% from today), and the low-end target is $425 (-27.5%). The base case model target is $261.
03Is Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) stock overvalued in 2026?
CRS trades at 55.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CRS in 2026 are: (1) Valuation de-rating — The bear case price target of $652 suggests significant downside risk if growth expectations are not met. (2) Operational execution risk — Despite raising guidance, achieving the projected operating income of $680-$700 million may be challenging. (3) SEC filing risks — The company's SEC filings highlight material risks that could adversely impact results. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Carpenter Technology Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CRS will report consensus revenue of $3.2B (+6.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.06 (-25.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.4B in revenue.
06When does Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) report its next earnings?
Carpenter Technology Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $3.01 and revenue of $862M. Over recent quarters, CRS has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Carpenter Technology Corporation generate?
Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) generated $407M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 13.5%. CRS returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.1% yield) and share repurchases ($102M TTM).