Upside case
Bull case
$1001+118.4%
CRS would need investors to value it at roughly 97x earnings — about 53x more generous than today's 44x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
20
analysts
14 bullish · 1 bearish · 20 covering CRS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
14
Hold
5
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$475
+3.6% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $1001
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
20
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
44.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $22.8B
CRS price targets
Three scenarios for where CRS stock could go
Current
~$458
Confidence
55 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $458
Base
$757
Bull
$1001
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$757+65.2%
At 73x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Carpenter Technology Corporation
CRS · NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationJune year-end
Carpenter Technology is a specialty metals manufacturer that produces high-performance alloys for demanding applications in aerospace, medical, and industrial markets. It generates revenue primarily from selling specialty alloys—including titanium, stainless steels, and powder metals—through its two main segments: Specialty Alloys Operations and Performance Engineered Products. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep metallurgical expertise, proprietary manufacturing processes, and long-standing relationships with aerospace and medical OEMs that require certified, high-reliability materials.
Market Cap
$22.8B
Revenue TTM
$3.0B
Net Income TTM
$479M
Net Margin
15.8%
CRS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+11.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.21/$2.07
Revenue
$756M/$793M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.43/$2.13
Revenue
$734M/$718M
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.33/$2.22
Revenue
$728M/$691M
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.77/$2.59
Revenue
$812M/$797M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.21/$2.07 | +6.8% | $756M/$793M | -4.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.43/$2.13 | +14.1% | $734M/$718M | +2.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.33/$2.22 | +5.0% | $728M/$691M | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.77/$2.59 | +6.9% | $812M/$797M | +1.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.2B
+7.2% YoY
FY2
$3.5B
+8.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.82
+13.5% YoY
FY2
$12.26
+13.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$407M
FCF Margin: 13.5%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
CRS beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CRS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Aerospace And Defense Markets
61.5%
+14.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
59.1%
+4.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Aerospace And Defense Markets is the largest disclosed segment at 61.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 14.9% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 59.1%, up 4.7% YoY.
CRS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $371 — implies -13.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
13.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CRS
61.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+145% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
CRS
61.7x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
+139% premium
vs CRS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
61.7x
vs
5Y Average
38.7x
+60% premium
Forward PE
44.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
+133%
Industrials
20.8x
+113%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
61.7x
S&P 500
25.2x
+145%
Industrials
25.9x
+139%
5Y Avg
38.7x
+60%
PEG Ratio
0.28x
S&P 500
1.75x
-84%
Industrials
1.59x
-82%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
35.1x
S&P 500
15.3x
+130%
Industrials
13.9x
+153%
5Y Avg
16.6x
+111%
Price/FCF
79.6x
S&P 500
21.3x
+273%
Industrials
20.6x
+286%
5Y Avg
31.0x
+157%
Price/Sales
7.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+153%
Industrials
1.6x
+398%
5Y Avg
2.0x
+295%
Dividend Yield
0.17%
S&P 500
1.88%
-91%
Industrials
1.24%
-86%
5Y Avg
1.47%
-88%
| Metric | CRS | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg CRS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 44.4x | 19.1x+133% | 20.8x+113% | — |
| Trailing PE | 61.7x | 25.2x+145% | 25.9x+139% | 38.7x+60% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.28x | 1.75x-84% | 1.59x-82% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 35.1x | 15.3x+130% | 13.9x+153% | 16.6x+111% |
| Price/FCF | 79.6x | 21.3x+273% | 20.6x+286% | 31.0x+157% |
| Price/Sales | 7.9x | 3.1x+153% | 1.6x+398% | 2.0x+295% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.17% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 1.47% |
CRS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCRS Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CRS generates $407M in free cash flow at a 13.5% margin — 17.5% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
29.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
21.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
15.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.52
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$407M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
13.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
17.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
13.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$316M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$423M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.0× FCF
~1.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
24.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.6%
Dividend
0.2%
Buyback
0.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$102M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.79
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
10.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
50M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCRS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Production Risks
Carpenter Technology has highlighted significant production risks, which may include challenges in manufacturing processes, supply chain disruptions, or quality control issues. These factors could adversely affect the company's output and profitability.
High Risk
Valuation Concerns
Analysts have raised concerns about Carpenter Technology's valuation, with one report indicating a potential overvaluation of 184.9% based on its GF Value™. The current Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 49.1x is significantly higher than the industry average for Aerospace & Defense, suggesting that the stock may be trading on speculation.
High Risk
Execution Risk
The company is undertaking a significant expansion project valued at US$400 million, which poses execution risks that could hinder its growth plans. Any delays or issues in this project could negatively impact Carpenter Technology's financial performance.
Medium
Cyclical Demand
Carpenter Technology's performance is heavily dependent on cyclical demand from the aerospace and defense sectors. Fluctuations in these industries can directly affect the company's revenue and profitability.
Medium
Economic Sensitivity
As a manufacturer of specialty metals, Carpenter Technology is sensitive to broader economic conditions and industrial demand. Economic downturns could lead to reduced orders and lower revenues.
Lower
Insider Selling
There have been instances of insider selling in the past six months, with a notable number of shares sold by executives. While this may not indicate immediate concern, it could reflect potential lack of confidence among insiders.
Lower
Leadership Transition
The recent leadership transition at Carpenter Technology, while generally viewed positively, introduces modest transition risks. Changes in leadership can impact company strategy and execution.
Lower
Regulatory Environment
Carpenter Technology operates in a complex regulatory environment, which includes compliance with international standards. Any changes in regulations could pose risks to the company's operations.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CRS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Aerospace and Defense Demand
A significant portion of Carpenter Technology's sales comes from the aerospace and defense sector. With ongoing geopolitical tensions and a projected growth in this industry, demand for CRS's high-performance specialty alloys is expected to remain strong, driving mid to long-term growth.
Positive Analyst Ratings
A majority of analysts covering CRS have a 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy' rating, indicating a positive outlook on the stock. The average price targets from various analysts suggest potential upside, though some recent targets indicate a slight downside from current prices.
Earnings and Revenue Growth
Analysts forecast earnings per share (EPS) to grow in the coming year. Revenue is also expected to increase, with projections for next quarter and next year showing positive growth.
Operational Improvements and Capacity Expansion
The company is investing in expanding its high-purity melt capacity, which is expected to help it leverage industry supply-demand imbalances and support higher volumes and sustained pricing power. This is projected to translate into increased revenue and operating income starting in fiscal year 2028.
Positive Financial Metrics
Recent financial performance shows strong revenue generation, a healthy net income margin, and robust liquidity. Free cash flow has also turned positive and is showing an upward trend.
Upgraded Guidance
Management has upgraded its operating income forecasts, exceeding previous goals and setting ambitious targets for fiscal year 2027, indicating confidence in future performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CRS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$458.16
52W Range Position
99%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$204.47
+124.1% from the low
52-Week High
$461.99
-0.8% from the high
1 Month
+16.04%
3 Month
+25.49%
YTD
+35.4%
1 Year
+120.7%
3Y CAGR
+108.1%
5Y CAGR
+61.8%
10Y CAGR
+30.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CRS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
44.4x
vs 16.7x median
+166% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.2%
vs +6.0% median
+20% above peer median
Net Margin
15.8%
vs 7.2% median
+119% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CRS CRS Carpenter Technology Corporation | $22.8B | 44.4x | +7.2% | 15.8% | Buy | +3.6% |
ATI ATI ATI Inc. | $22.6B | 38.5x | +6.6% | 9.3% | Buy | +5.0% |
HWM HWM Howmet Aerospace Inc. | $102.8B | 55.2x | +12.1% | 18.3% | Buy | +7.1% |
NUE NUE Nucor Corporation | $53.3B | 16.7x | +4.4% | 6.8% | Buy | -4.9% |
STL STLD Steel Dynamics, Inc. | $35.0B | 16.2x | +6.0% | 7.2% | Buy | -22.1% |
CMC CMC Commercial Metals Company | $8.0B | 11.0x | +2.4% | 5.5% | Buy | +14.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CRS Dividend and Capital Return
CRS returns capital mainly through $102M/year in buybacks (0.4% buyback yield), with a modest 0.17% dividend — combining for 0.6% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.4%
Dividend Yield
0.17%
Payout Ratio
10.7%
How CRS Splits Its Return
Div 0.17%
Buyback 0.4%
Dividend 0.17%Buybacks 0.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.79
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.0%
5Y Div CAGR
0.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$102M
Estimated Shares Retired
222.4K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
50M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.80 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% |
| 2024 | $0.80 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| 2023 | $0.80 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.4% |
| 2022 | $0.80 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsCRS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 20 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $475, implying +3.6% from the current price of $458.
02What is the CRS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CRS is $475 based on 20 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $500 (+9.1% from today), and the low-end target is $450 (-1.8%). The base case model target is $757.
03Is Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) stock overvalued in 2026?
CRS trades at 44.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CRS in 2026 are: (1) Production Risks — Carpenter Technology has highlighted significant production risks, which may include challenges in manufacturing processes, supply chain disruptions, or quality control issues. (2) Valuation Concerns — Analysts have raised concerns about Carpenter Technology's valuation, with one report indicating a potential overvaluation of 184. (3) Execution Risk — The company is undertaking a significant expansion project valued at US$400 million, which poses execution risks that could hinder its growth plans. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Carpenter Technology Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CRS will report consensus revenue of $3.2B (+7.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.82 (+13.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.5B in revenue.
06When does Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for CRS is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Carpenter Technology Corporation generate?
Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) generated $407M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 13.5%. CRS returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.2% yield) and share repurchases ($102M TTM).