Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing AXSM more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
26
analysts
25 bullish · 0 bearish · 26 covering AXSM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
25
Hold
1
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$262
+4.7% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
26
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.9B
AXSM price targets
Three scenarios for where AXSM stock could go
Current
~$251
Confidence
56 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.
AXSM · NASDAQHealthcareBiotechnologyDecember year-end
Axsome Therapeutics is a biopharmaceutical company developing novel therapies for central nervous system disorders like depression, migraine, and narcolepsy. It generates revenue primarily from sales of its approved depression treatment Auvelity (AXS-05) and migraine therapy Sunosi, with future revenue expected from additional pipeline candidates in late-stage development. The company's competitive advantage lies in its differentiated CNS-focused pipeline targeting large markets with high unmet medical needs and its proprietary formulation technologies.
Market Cap
$12.9B
Revenue TTM
$708M
Net Income TTM
-$188M
Net Margin
-26.6%
AXSM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.92/$-1.00
Revenue
$150M/$140M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.94/$-0.82
Revenue
$171M/$191M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.71/$-0.70
Revenue
$195M/$193M
Q2 2026
EPS
$-1.26/$-0.85
Revenue
$189M/$191M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-0.92/$-1.00 | +8.0% | $150M/$140M | +7.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.94/$-0.82 | -14.6% | $171M/$191M | -10.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.71/$-0.70 | -1.4% | $195M/$193M | +0.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $-1.26/$-0.85 | -48.2% | $189M/$191M | -0.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$891M
+25.8% YoY
FY2
$1.1B
+27.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-3.41
+7.2% YoY
FY2
$-1.46
+57.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$71M
FCF Margin: -10.0%
Next Earnings
August 3, 2026
Expected EPS
$-0.83
Expected Revenue
$222M
AXSM beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
AXSM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $634M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
100.0%
+66.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
99.2%
+66.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 66.1% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 99.2%, up 66.2% YoY.
AXSM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Relative Valuation
Benchmark comparison across market, sector, and history below.
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AXSM
-68.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
378% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
AXSM
-68.1x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
408% discount
vs AXSM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-68.1x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
18.8x
—
Healthcare
18.3x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-68.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
-378%
Healthcare
22.1x
-408%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Healthcare
1.59x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Healthcare
14.2x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Healthcare
18.5x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
20.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+553%
Healthcare
2.6x
+666%
5Y Avg
12.7x
+59%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Healthcare
1.50%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | AXSM | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg AXSM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 18.8x | 18.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | -68.1x | 24.4x-378% | 22.1x-408% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 14.2x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 18.5x | — |
| Price/Sales | 20.2x | 3.1x+553% | 2.6x+666% | 12.7x+59% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.50% | — |
AXSM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 2 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAXSM Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for AXSM are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$708M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+63.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
92.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-24.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-26.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-3.68
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$71M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-10.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-1906.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-27.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$323M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$82M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-260.0%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-1906.7%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
51M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageAXSM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Financial Performance
Axsome Therapeutics' Q1 2026 financial report highlights unaudited results, indicating potential risks in financial transparency and stability.
Medium
Market Competition
The CNS therapeutics market is competitive, and Axsome's niche positioning may face challenges from established players or new entrants.
High Risk
Regulatory Risks
As a biopharmaceutical company, Axsome faces regulatory hurdles in drug approvals and compliance, which could delay or derail product launches.
Medium
Execution Risk
The company's ability to execute its strategic plans in CNS therapeutics is critical, and any missteps could impact investor confidence and stock performance.
Lower
Investor Sentiment
While the market has rewarded Axsome for execution, shifts in investor sentiment due to broader market conditions could affect stock volatility.
High Risk
Clinical Trial Outcomes
Negative results or delays in clinical trials for key CNS therapies could significantly impact Axsome's valuation and pipeline progress.
Medium
Revenue Growth
The company's revenue growth depends on successful commercialization of its therapies, which may face challenges in adoption or reimbursement.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AXSM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Stock Analysis Availability
Comprehensive stock analysis, price targets, and earnings estimates are available for informed investment decisions.
Financial Overview
Detailed stock quotes, historical data, and vital information are accessible for trading and investing strategies.
Market Performance Tracking
Real-time stock prices and financial overviews enable investors to monitor performance closely.
Analyst Price Targets
Stock forecasts and analyst predictions provide insights into potential future performance.
Investment News Coverage
Regular updates and news coverage keep investors informed about the latest developments.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AXSM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$250.50
52W Range Position
94%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$96.09
+160.7% from the low
52-Week High
$260.19
-3.7% from the high
1 Month
+10.16%
3 Month
+58.67%
YTD
+40.2%
1 Year
+143.5%
3Y CAGR
+42.8%
5Y CAGR
+30.0%
10Y CAGR
+44.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AXSM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 12.1x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+25.8%
vs +14.7% median
+76% above peer median
Net Margin
-26.6%
vs 21.6% median
-223% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AXS AXSM Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. | $12.9B | — | +25.8% | -26.6% | Buy | +4.7% |
INV INVA Innoviva, Inc. | $1.7B | 6.3x | +20.6% | 118.9% | Buy | +64.5% |
SUP SUPN Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $2.6B | 17.8x | +10.2% | -3.7% | Buy | +35.2% |
ACA ACAD ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. | $3.7B | 55.6x | +15.9% | 34.3% | Buy | +55.7% |
INT INTR Inter & Co, Inc. | $2.4B | 1.3x | +9.1% | 9.0% | Buy | +72.8% |
PRA PRAX Praxis Precision Medicines, Inc. | $8.2B | — | +14.7% | — | Buy | +106.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsAXSM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 25 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $262, implying +4.7% from the current price of $251.
02What is the AXSM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AXSM is $262 based on 26 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $380 (+51.7% from today), and the low-end target is $200 (-20.2%).
03Is Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for AXSM is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AXSM in 2026 are: (1) Financial Performance — Axsome Therapeutics' Q1 2026 financial report highlights unaudited results, indicating potential risks in financial transparency and stability. (2) Regulatory Risks — As a biopharmaceutical company, Axsome faces regulatory hurdles in drug approvals and compliance, which could delay or derail product launches. (3) Clinical Trial Outcomes — Negative results or delays in clinical trials for key CNS therapies could significantly impact Axsome's valuation and pipeline progress. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AXSM will report consensus revenue of $891M (+25.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $-3.41 (+7.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.1B in revenue.
06When does Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM) report its next earnings?
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-03. Consensus expects EPS of $-0.83 and revenue of $222M. Over recent quarters, AXSM has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. generate?
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM) had a free cash outflow of $71M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 10.0%. AXSM returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).