Upside case
Bull case
$316+84.8%
BMO would need investors to value it at roughly 22x earnings — about 10x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Bank of Montreal (BMO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
18
analysts
8 bullish · 2 bearish · 18 covering BMO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
8
Hold
8
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$140
-18.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$151 – $316
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
18
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $119.6B
BMO price targets
Three scenarios for where BMO stock could go
Current
~$171
Confidence
44 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $171
Bear
$151
Base
$240
Bull
$316
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$240+40.2%
At 17x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$151-11.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push BMO down roughly 12% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Bank of Montreal
BMO · NYSEFinancial ServicesBanks - DiversifiedOctober year-end
Bank of Montreal is a major Canadian diversified financial institution providing banking, wealth management, and capital markets services across North America. It generates revenue primarily through net interest income from lending activities (about 60% of total revenue) and non-interest income from capital markets, wealth management, and insurance services. Its competitive advantage stems from its long-established Canadian retail banking franchise—one of the country's "Big Five" banks—with deep customer relationships and extensive branch networks.
Market Cap
$119.6B
Revenue TTM
$77.1B
Net Income TTM
$9.7B
Net Margin
12.6%
BMO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-0.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.33/$2.12
Revenue
$8.9B/$6.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.36/$2.16
Revenue
$9.3B/$6.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.51/$2.35
Revenue
$7.2B/$7.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.68/$2.80
Revenue
$7.0B/$7.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.33/$2.12 | +9.9% | $8.9B/$6.5B | +36.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.36/$2.16 | +9.3% | $9.3B/$6.7B | +37.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.51/$2.35 | +6.8% | $7.2B/$7.0B | +3.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.68/$2.80 | -4.3% | $7.0B/$7.0B | +0.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$78.0B
+1.1% YoY
FY2
$77.8B
-0.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$14.33
+4.5% YoY
FY2
$14.97
+4.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$48.0B
FCF Margin: 62.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
BMO beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
BMO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $34.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
CANADA
55.4%
+17.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
CANADA is the largest reported region at 55.4%, up 17.2% YoY.
BMO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $223 — implies +30.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
30.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BMO
21.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
14% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
BMO
21.1x
vs
Financial Services
13.6x
+55% premium
vs BMO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
21.1x
vs
5Y Average
9.5x
+122% premium
Forward PE
12.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
-35%
Financial Services
10.7x
+14%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
21.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
-14%
Financial Services
13.6x
+55%
5Y Avg
9.5x
+122%
PEG Ratio
2.43x
S&P 500
1.66x
+46%
Financial Services
0.95x
+154%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
37.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
+146%
Financial Services
11.4x
+228%
5Y Avg
28.2x
+33%
Price/FCF
19.8x
S&P 500
20.7x
-4%
Financial Services
11.1x
+78%
5Y Avg
7.8x
+155%
Price/Sales
2.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-30%
Financial Services
2.3x
-7%
5Y Avg
1.3x
+64%
Dividend Yield
2.89%
S&P 500
1.91%
+51%
Financial Services
2.63%
+10%
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | BMO | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg BMO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.1x | 18.8x-35% | 10.7x+14% | — |
| Trailing PE | 21.1x | 24.4x-14% | 13.6x+55% | 9.5x+122% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.43x | 1.66x+46% | 0.95x+154% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 37.4x | 15.2x+146% | 11.4x+228% | 28.2x+33% |
| Price/FCF | 19.8x | 20.7x | 11.1x+78% | 7.8x+155% |
| Price/Sales | 2.2x | 3.1x-30% | 2.3x | 1.3x+64% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.89% | 1.91% | 2.63% | — |
BMO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBMO Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
BMO generates 11.2% ROE and 0.7% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$77.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
16.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$13.70
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
11.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
1.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$70.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$344.9B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
11.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.9%
Dividend
2.9%
Buyback
2.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$6.96
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
57.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
700M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageBMO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
U.S. Commercial Banking Credit Risk
BMO’s U.S. commercial banking segment has faced rising credit losses and defaults, increasing the likelihood of future write‑downs. The bank’s exposure to this segment has already impacted earnings, and further deterioration could erode profitability and capital buffers.
High Risk
Adjusted EPS Decline
Adjusted earnings per share fell noticeably from 2023 to 2024, signaling weaker operating performance. This decline raises concerns about the bank’s ability to sustain shareholder returns and may pressure future dividend decisions.
High Risk
Capital Adequacy Relative to Peers
While BMO’s CET1 ratio remains above regulatory minimums, its tangible common equity to tangible assets ratio is below the typical strong range for large banks, and its capital position is thinner than many peers. This relative weakness could limit the bank’s capacity to absorb losses or pursue growth initiatives.
Medium
Shareholder Return and Integration Risk
BMO’s total shareholder return has historically lagged competitors, partly due to volatile earnings and integration challenges from U.S. acquisitions. Successful integration is critical to unlocking synergies and improving long‑term returns.
Medium
Operational & Third‑Party Reliance
The bank depends on third‑party service providers for key infrastructure and operations. Disruptions or failures in these relationships could lead to operational outages, regulatory penalties, or reputational damage.
Medium
Market & Economic Sensitivity
BMO’s beta of 1.24 indicates higher volatility than the broader market, and the bank is exposed to interest‑rate swings, currency fluctuations, and global capital‑market activity. Economic downturns in operating countries or tightening monetary policy could further amplify earnings volatility.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BMO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Diversified Business Model
BMO operates across personal and commercial banking, reducing exposure to economic swings. The multi-segment structure supports steady revenue streams across varying market conditions.
Digital Innovation & AI
The bank invests in tokenized cash settlement and AI-powered customer engagement tools. Initiatives include the DollarGPS financial planning app and the Institute for Applied Artificial Intelligence & Quantum, positioning BMO at the forefront of fintech.
US Growth Potential
BMO seeks to expand its California footprint and improve results in U.S. operations. The bank targets growth in its U.S. markets, leveraging its North American franchise to capture new customer segments.
Strong Technical Indicators
The stock trades above key moving averages and exhibits a positive Relative Strength Index (RSI). These technical signals suggest bullish momentum and potential upside.
Ethical Designation
BMO is recognized as one of the World's Most Ethical Companies®. This ethical standing can enhance client trust and differentiate the bank in a competitive market.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BMO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$170.82
52W Range Position
97%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$104.09
+64.1% from the low
52-Week High
$173.20
-1.4% from the high
1 Month
+11.07%
3 Month
+23.78%
YTD
+29.2%
1 Year
+60.8%
3Y CAGR
+24.2%
5Y CAGR
+10.9%
10Y CAGR
+10.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BMO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.1x
vs 11.2x median
+8% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.1%
vs +2.3% median
-51% below peer median
Net Margin
12.6%
vs 13.5% median
-6% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BMO BMO Bank of Montreal | $119.6B | 12.1x | +1.1% | 12.6% | Buy | -18.0% |
TD TD The Toronto-Dominion Bank | $201.5B | 12.8x | +0.7% | 13.2% | Buy | -25.0% |
RY RY Royal Bank of Canada | $281.5B | 13.0x | +2.3% | 15.9% | Hold | +11.6% |
BNS BNS The Bank of Nova Scotia | $106.7B | 10.8x | +10.1% | 13.5% | Buy | -17.1% |
CM CM Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | $103.5B | 11.2x | -0.4% | 15.9% | Hold | -4.5% |
MFC MFC Manulife Financial Corporation | $68.1B | 9.1x | +12.0% | 8.1% | Buy | -15.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BMO Dividend and Capital Return
BMO returns 4.9% total yield, led by a 2.89% dividend, raised 5 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 2.0%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.0%
Dividend Yield
2.89%
Payout Ratio
57.8%
How BMO Splits Its Return
Div 2.89%
Buyback 2.0%
Dividend 2.89%Buybacks 2.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$6.96
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
3.2%
5Y Div CAGR
7.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
20M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
700M
At 2.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $3.68 | — |
| 2025 | $4.60 | +3.0% |
| 2024 | $4.46 | +3.8% |
| 2023 | $4.30 | +2.6% |
| 2022 | $4.19 | +23.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsBMO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Bank of Montreal (BMO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Bank of Montreal (BMO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 18 analysts covering the stock, 8 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $140, implying -18.0% from the current price of $171. The bear case scenario is $151 and the bull case is $316.
02What is the BMO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BMO is $140 based on 18 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $140 (-18.0% from today), and the low-end target is $140 (-18.0%). The base case model target is $240.
03Is Bank of Montreal (BMO) stock overvalued in 2026?
BMO trades at 12.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Bank of Montreal (BMO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BMO in 2026 are: (1) U.S. Commercial Banking Credit Risk — BMO’s U. (2) Adjusted EPS Decline — Adjusted earnings per share fell noticeably from 2023 to 2024, signaling weaker operating performance. (3) Capital Adequacy Relative to Peers — While BMO’s CET1 ratio remains above regulatory minimums, its tangible common equity to tangible assets ratio is below the typical strong range for large banks, and its capital position is thinner than many peers. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Bank of Montreal's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BMO will report consensus revenue of $78.0B (+1.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $14.33 (+4.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $77.8B in revenue.
06When does Bank of Montreal (BMO) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for BMO is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Bank of Montreal generate?
Bank of Montreal (BMO) generated $48.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 62.2%. BMO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.9% yield) and share repurchases ($3.4B TTM).