Upside case
Bull case
$508+352.2%
CM would need investors to value it at roughly 50x earnings — about 39x more generous than today's 11x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
15
analysts
4 bullish · 2 bearish · 15 covering CM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
4
Hold
9
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$107
-5.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$95 – $508
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
15
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $104.0B
CM price targets
Three scenarios for where CM stock could go
Current
~$112
Confidence
57 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $112
Bear
$95
Base
$162
Bull
$508
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$162+44.5%
At 16x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$95-15.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push CM down roughly 16% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
CM · NYSEFinancial ServicesBanks - DiversifiedOctober year-end
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce is a major Canadian bank offering personal and commercial banking, wealth management, and capital markets services. It generates revenue primarily through net interest income from loans and deposits (roughly 60%) and non-interest income from fees, trading, and investment banking (roughly 40%). The bank's competitive advantage lies in its entrenched domestic retail banking network—particularly in Ontario and Quebec—and its integrated wealth management platform.
Market Cap
$104.0B
Net Income TTM
$8.4B
CM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.44/$1.36
Revenue
$7.0B/$5.1B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.57/$1.45
Revenue
$7.2B/$5.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.57/$1.49
Revenue
$7.5B/$5.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.99/$1.74
Revenue
$6.2B/$5.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.44/$1.36 | +5.9% | $7.0B/$5.1B | +38.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.57/$1.45 | +8.3% | $7.2B/$5.2B | +38.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.57/$1.49 | +5.4% | $7.5B/$5.5B | +37.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.99/$1.74 | +14.4% | $6.2B/$5.7B | +9.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$53.5B
-13.7% YoY
FY2
$53.6B
+0.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$9.43
+4.6% YoY
FY2
$9.11
-3.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$416M
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
CM beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $22.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
CANADA
78.2%
+6.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
CANADA is the largest reported region at 78.2%, up 6.2% YoY.
CM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $109 — implies -2.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
2.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CM
17.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
29% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
CM
17.8x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+33% premium
vs CM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
17.8x
vs
5Y Average
8.1x
+119% premium
Forward PE
11.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-42%
Financial Services
10.5x
+5%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
17.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
-29%
Financial Services
13.4x
+33%
5Y Avg
8.1x
+119%
PEG Ratio
1.12x
S&P 500
1.75x
-36%
Financial Services
1.03x
+10%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
36.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
+139%
Financial Services
11.4x
+219%
5Y Avg
28.5x
+28%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Financial Services
10.6x
—
5Y Avg
3.6x
—
Price/Sales
2.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-27%
Financial Services
2.3x
+1%
5Y Avg
1.3x
+77%
Dividend Yield
2.78%
S&P 500
1.88%
+48%
Financial Services
2.68%
+4%
5Y Avg
5.84%
-52%
| Metric | CM | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg CM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.0x | 19.1x-42% | 10.5x | — |
| Trailing PE | 17.8x | 25.2x-29% | 13.4x+33% | 8.1x+119% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.12x | 1.75x-36% | 1.03x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 36.4x | 15.3x+139% | 11.4x+219% | 28.5x+28% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 10.6x | 3.6x |
| Price/Sales | 2.3x | 3.1x-27% | 2.3x | 1.3x+77% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.78% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 5.84% |
CM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCM Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
CM generates 13.1% ROE and 0.8% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.01
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
13.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$55.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$300.1B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
13.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.0%
Dividend
2.8%
Buyback
2.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.24
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
47.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
941M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageCM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Credit Quality Concerns
CM’s total provisions for credit losses (PCLs) are 16% higher year‑over‑year at $559 million, despite a decline in the gross impaired loans ratio. This indicates ongoing credit quality concerns that could erode earnings if defaults rise.
High Risk
Macroeconomic Headwinds
Canadian housing dynamics, inflation, and Bank of Canada policy are key macro drivers. Tightening policy or a housing downturn could compress loan growth and increase default risk, impacting CM’s profitability.
Medium
Sector Rotation & Institutional Flows
Broader sector rotations and institutional flows have recently pulled CM’s stock down ~5% over 30 days. Continued rotation away from banks could pressure the share price regardless of fundamentals.
Medium
Interest Rate Volatility
Changes in interest rates affect bond prices and the bank’s net interest margin. Higher yields or lower credit ratings on bonds increase risk, potentially squeezing CM’s earnings.
Medium
Recession Sensitivity
Banking businesses are cyclically sensitive; a recession could reduce loan demand and increase credit losses, negatively impacting CM’s earnings and capital ratios.
Lower
Valuation Risk
CM’s P/E of 14.5x is above the North American banks average of 11.9x, and analysts suggest the current valuation may be fully priced. New entry points could be limited after recent rallies.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Retail & Commercial Earnings Growth
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce has demonstrated strong earnings growth in its Canadian retail and commercial banking operations. This growth underpins the bank’s solid financial performance and supports continued profitability.
Interest Margin Expansion Mitigates Credit Charges
Wider interest margins have helped offset increased credit charges, providing a cushion that protects net income. This margin expansion enhances the bank’s resilience to credit risk.
Capital Markets Income Surge from Volatility
The bank’s capital markets segment has seen a surge in income due to elevated market volatility. This additional revenue stream diversifies earnings beyond traditional banking activities.
Solid Dividend Yield for Income Seekers
CM offers a solid dividend yield, providing a reliable income stream for investors. The dividend policy supports shareholder value and attracts income-focused investors.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$112.22
52W Range Position
98%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$63.45
+76.9% from the low
52-Week High
$113.28
-0.9% from the high
1 Month
+15.49%
3 Month
+16.07%
YTD
+22.1%
1 Year
+76.3%
3Y CAGR
+39.2%
5Y CAGR
+15.9%
10Y CAGR
+11.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.0x
vs 10.9x median
+1% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-13.7%
vs -11.4% median
-21% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs 7.0% median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CM CM Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | $104.0B | 11.0x | -13.7% | — | Hold | -5.0% |
TD TD The Toronto-Dominion Bank | $182.1B | 11.5x | -13.6% | — | Hold | -17.6% |
RY RY Royal Bank of Canada | $254.3B | 11.5x | -11.4% | — | Hold | -31.3% |
BMO BMO Bank of Montreal | $109.9B | 10.9x | -12.2% | — | Buy | -40.7% |
BNS BNS The Bank of Nova Scotia | $97.0B | 9.6x | +8.4% | — | Buy | -8.0% |
MFC MFC Manulife Financial Corporation | $67.0B | 8.6x | +5.6% | 7.0% | Buy | +27.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CM Dividend and Capital Return
CM returns 5.0% total yield, led by a 2.78% dividend. Buybacks add another 2.2%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
5.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.2%
Dividend Yield
2.78%
Payout Ratio
47.4%
How CM Splits Its Return
Div 2.78%
Buyback 2.2%
Dividend 2.78%Buybacks 2.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.24
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
-3.0%
5Y Div CAGR
5.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
27M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
941M
At 2.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.78 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.87 | +7.1% | 4.0% | 9.1% |
| 2024 | $2.68 | +2.7% | 0.7% | 5.7% |
| 2023 | $2.61 | -17.1% | 0.0% | 7.0% |
| 2022 | $3.14 | -6.4% | 2.3% | 9.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsCM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 15 analysts covering the stock, 4 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $107, implying -5.0% from the current price of $112. The bear case scenario is $95 and the bull case is $508.
02What is the CM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CM is $107 based on 15 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $127 (+13.5% from today), and the low-end target is $70 (-37.6%). The base case model target is $162.
03Is Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) stock overvalued in 2026?
CM trades at 11.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CM in 2026 are: (1) Credit Quality Concerns — CM’s total provisions for credit losses (PCLs) are 16% higher year‑over‑year at $559 million, despite a decline in the gross impaired loans ratio. (2) Macroeconomic Headwinds — Canadian housing dynamics, inflation, and Bank of Canada policy are key macro drivers. (3) Sector Rotation & Institutional Flows — Broader sector rotations and institutional flows have recently pulled CM’s stock down ~5% over 30 days. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CM will report consensus revenue of $53.5B (-13.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $9.43 (+4.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $53.6B in revenue.
06When does Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for CM is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce generate?
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) had a free cash outflow of $416M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. CM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.8% yield) and share repurchases ($3.1B TTM).