Upside case
Bull case
$740+843.9%
BNS would need investors to value it at roughly 91x earnings — about 81x more generous than today's 10x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
The Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
19
analysts
10 bullish · 1 bearish · 19 covering BNS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
10
Hold
8
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$72
-8.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$102 – $740
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
19
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
9.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $97.0B
BNS price targets
Three scenarios for where BNS stock could go
Current
~$78
Confidence
29 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $78
Bear
$102
Base
$308
Bull
$740
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$308+292.5%
At 38x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$102+29.8%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push BNS down roughly 30% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
The Bank of Nova Scotia
BNS · NYSEFinancial ServicesBanks - DiversifiedOctober year-end
The Bank of Nova Scotia is a major Canadian multinational bank providing retail, commercial, and investment banking services across Canada and international markets. It generates revenue primarily through net interest income from lending activities (about 60% of total revenue) and non-interest income from wealth management, capital markets, and transaction fees. Its key competitive advantage is its extensive international banking network across Latin America and the Caribbean—often called the "Pacific Alliance" strategy—which provides geographic diversification and growth opportunities beyond the mature Canadian market.
Market Cap
$97.0B
Net Income TTM
$7.8B
BNS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-0.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.06/$1.14
Revenue
$13.0B/$6.8B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.37/$1.28
Revenue
$13.0B/$6.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.39/$1.33
Revenue
$13.0B/$7.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.48/$1.42
Revenue
$7.4B/$7.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.06/$1.14 | -7.0% | $13.0B/$6.8B | +92.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.37/$1.28 | +7.0% | $13.0B/$6.8B | +91.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.39/$1.33 | +4.5% | $13.0B/$7.0B | +85.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.48/$1.42 | +4.2% | $7.4B/$7.1B | +3.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$79.3B
+8.4% YoY
FY2
$100.7B
+27.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$13.42
+114.5% YoY
FY2
$16.44
+22.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$5.1B
Next Earnings
May 27, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.43
Expected Revenue
$7.1B
BNS beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
BNS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2021
Total disclosed revenue $2.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Trading Related Revenue NonTEB
100.0%
-15.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Trading Related Revenue NonTEB is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2021 revenue, down 15.7% YoY.
BNS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $102 — implies +30.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
30.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BNS
18.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
26% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
BNS
18.7x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+40% premium
vs BNS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.7x
vs
5Y Average
8.4x
+124% premium
Forward PE
9.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
-50%
Financial Services
10.5x
-8%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.7x
S&P 500
25.2x
-26%
Financial Services
13.4x
+40%
5Y Avg
8.4x
+124%
PEG Ratio
13.10x
S&P 500
1.75x
+650%
Financial Services
1.03x
+1177%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
47.0x
S&P 500
15.3x
+208%
Financial Services
11.4x
+312%
5Y Avg
23.2x
+102%
Price/FCF
26.0x
S&P 500
21.3x
+22%
Financial Services
10.6x
+145%
5Y Avg
6.4x
+309%
Price/Sales
1.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-43%
Financial Services
2.3x
-20%
5Y Avg
1.9x
-3%
Dividend Yield
4.05%
S&P 500
1.88%
+115%
Financial Services
2.68%
+51%
5Y Avg
8.08%
-50%
| Metric | BNS | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg BNS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 9.6x | 19.1x-50% | 10.5x | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.7x | 25.2x-26% | 13.4x+40% | 8.4x+124% |
| PEG Ratio | 13.10x | 1.75x+650% | 1.03x+1177% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 47.0x | 15.3x+208% | 11.4x+312% | 23.2x+102% |
| Price/FCF | 26.0x | 21.3x+22% | 10.6x+145% | 6.4x+309% |
| Price/Sales | 1.8x | 3.1x-43% | 2.3x-20% | 1.9x |
| Dividend Yield | 4.05% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 8.08% |
BNS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBNS Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
BNS generates 8.8% ROE and 0.5% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.26
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
8.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
1.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$66.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$438.1B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
8.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.7%
Dividend
4.0%
Buyback
0.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$895M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.31
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
68.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageBNS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Inflation & Rate Volatility
Stubborn inflation and potential central bank rate reversals threaten loan quality and increase deposit costs. Rising oil prices and tariffs can further fuel inflation, making variable‑rate loan demand volatile and compressing margins.
High Risk
Credit Losses Surge
Economic downturns and higher rates raise the risk of loan defaults across BNS’s portfolio, eroding asset quality and profitability. Provisions for credit losses have risen, reflecting a more challenging environment.
High Risk
Canadian Mortgage Risk
A sizable share of BNS’s mortgage book consists of variable‑rate loans, exposing the bank to a Canadian real‑estate crunch. Falling housing prices and tighter lending standards could increase default rates.
Medium
Emerging Market Risk
BNS holds significant exposure to Latin America, where political and economic instability can impact credit quality. Currency swings in these markets can also be a swing factor for the bank’s earnings.
Medium
Regulatory Cost Risk
Evolving regulations, including stricter capital requirements and new consumer‑protection rules, could raise compliance costs and limit strategic flexibility. The bank must adapt to maintain capital ratios.
Medium
Technology & Process Risk
Risks from technology, supply chains, human error, and internal processes could disrupt operations. BNS uses Bayesian Networks to model and manage these risks, especially in IT infrastructure and corporate actions processing.
Lower
Competitive Pressure
Strong competition in the Canadian banking sector can squeeze margins and limit growth opportunities. The bank must differentiate its services to maintain profitability.
Lower
Distress Probability
BNS’s probability of financial distress is very low at 0.04% as of February 2026, but it remains a general indicator of bankruptcy risk. Investors should monitor any changes that could elevate this metric.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BNS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Potential Upside from Current Valuation
The stock is trading below its fair value, offering a potential upside of 5.19% to 7.33% from recent trading prices. Analysts see this as a buying opportunity for investors looking for modest gains.
Strong Market Position
BNS has a substantial market capitalization, underscoring its solid presence in the financial services sector. This scale provides resilience and a platform for continued growth.
Earnings Growth Outpacing Peers
Recent year‑over‑year earnings growth has exceeded industry averages, indicating effective management and a competitive edge. The bank’s EPS and ROE remain healthy, supporting shareholder returns.
Dividend Leadership
BNS is recognized as a leading dividend payer with a sustainable payout ratio, offering investors a reliable income stream. The dividend policy reflects the bank’s strong cash flow generation.
Pacific Alliance Expansion
The Global Banking and Markets segment has shown robust performance, with significant increases in trading revenues. Expansion of banking and wealth management services in high‑growth Pacific Alliance countries—Mexico, Peru, Chile, and Colombia—drives future revenue and earnings growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BNS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$78.45
52W Range Position
99%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$49.85
+57.4% from the low
52-Week High
$78.67
-0.3% from the high
1 Month
+11.64%
3 Month
+2.76%
YTD
+5.3%
1 Year
+56.9%
3Y CAGR
+16.0%
5Y CAGR
+3.8%
10Y CAGR
+5.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BNS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
9.6x
vs 11.5x median
-16% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.4%
vs -12.2% median
+169% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BNS BNS The Bank of Nova Scotia | $97.0B | 9.6x | +8.4% | — | Buy | -8.0% |
TD TD The Toronto-Dominion Bank | $182.1B | 11.5x | -13.6% | — | Hold | -17.6% |
BMO BMO Bank of Montreal | $109.9B | 10.9x | -12.2% | — | Buy | -40.7% |
CM CM Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | $104.0B | 11.0x | -13.7% | — | Hold | -5.0% |
RY RY Royal Bank of Canada | $254.3B | 11.5x | -11.4% | — | Hold | -31.3% |
BK BK The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation | $92.0B | 15.3x | -1.8% | — | Buy | +4.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BNS Dividend and Capital Return
BNS returns 4.7% total yield, led by a 4.05% dividend. Buybacks add another 0.7%.
Dividend WatchFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
4.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.7%
Dividend Yield
4.05%
Payout Ratio
68.9%
How BNS Splits Its Return
Div 4.05%
Dividend 4.05%Buybacks 0.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.31
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
9.5%
5Y Div CAGR
2.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$895M
Estimated Shares Retired
11M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.2B
At 0.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.58 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.08 | -2.0% | 1.1% | 7.7% |
| 2024 | $3.14 | -19.7% | 0.0% | 8.2% |
| 2023 | $3.91 | +66.7% | 0.0% | 11.1% |
| 2022 | $2.34 | -35.7% | 5.8% | 14.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsBNS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is The Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
The Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 19 analysts covering the stock, 10 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $72, implying -8.0% from the current price of $78. The bear case scenario is $102 and the bull case is $740.
02What is the BNS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BNS is $72 based on 19 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $76 (-3.6% from today), and the low-end target is $67 (-14.6%). The base case model target is $308.
03Is The Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) stock overvalued in 2026?
BNS trades at 9.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for The Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BNS in 2026 are: (1) Inflation & Rate Volatility — Stubborn inflation and potential central bank rate reversals threaten loan quality and increase deposit costs. (2) Credit Losses Surge — Economic downturns and higher rates raise the risk of loan defaults across BNS’s portfolio, eroding asset quality and profitability. (3) Canadian Mortgage Risk — A sizable share of BNS’s mortgage book consists of variable‑rate loans, exposing the bank to a Canadian real‑estate crunch. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is The Bank of Nova Scotia's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BNS will report consensus revenue of $79.3B (+8.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $13.42 (+114.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $100.7B in revenue.
06When does The Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) report its next earnings?
The Bank of Nova Scotia is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-27. Consensus expects EPS of $1.43 and revenue of $7.1B. Over recent quarters, BNS has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does The Bank of Nova Scotia generate?
The Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) generated $5.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. BNS returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.0% yield) and share repurchases ($895M TTM).