Upside case
Bull case
$694+289.0%
RY would need investors to value it at roughly 44x earnings — about 33x more generous than today's 11x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Royal Bank of Canada (RY) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
29
analysts
12 bullish · 1 bearish · 29 covering RY
Strong Buy
0
Buy
12
Hold
16
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$125
-30.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$184 – $694
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
29
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $249.9B
RY price targets
Three scenarios for where RY stock could go
Current
~$178
Confidence
57 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $178
Bear
$184
Base
$281
Bull
$694
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$281+57.3%
At 18x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$184+2.9%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push RY down roughly 3% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Royal Bank of Canada
RY · NYSEFinancial ServicesBanks - DiversifiedOctober year-end
Royal Bank of Canada is a diversified financial services institution operating primarily in Canada and internationally. It generates revenue mainly through personal and commercial banking (roughly 50% of earnings), wealth management, capital markets, and insurance services. The bank's competitive advantage lies in its dominant Canadian retail banking franchise — the largest in the country — supported by extensive branch networks and long-standing customer relationships.
Market Cap
$249.9B
Net Income TTM
$20.4B
RY Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$2.20/$2.25
Revenue
$15.7B/$11.8B
Q3 2025
EPS
$2.79/$2.36
Revenue
$17.0B/$12.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.76/$2.51
Revenue
$17.2B/$12.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.94/$2.81
Revenue
$13.2B/$12.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $2.20/$2.25 | -2.2% | $15.7B/$11.8B | +32.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.79/$2.36 | +18.2% | $17.0B/$12.1B | +40.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.76/$2.51 | +10.0% | $17.2B/$12.5B | +37.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.94/$2.81 | +4.6% | $13.2B/$12.9B | +2.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$121.8B
-11.4% YoY
FY2
$128.5B
+5.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$15.97
+10.5% YoY
FY2
$16.27
+1.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$53.0B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
RY beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
RY Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $59.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
CANADA
70.9%
+16.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
CANADA is the largest reported region at 70.9%, up 16.8% YoY.
RY Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $188 — implies +4.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
4.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
RY
17.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
31% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
RY
17.2x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
+29% premium
vs RY 5Y Avg P/E
Today
17.2x
vs
5Y Average
9.3x
+84% premium
Forward PE
11.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
-41%
Financial Services
10.4x
+8%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
17.2x
S&P 500
25.1x
-31%
Financial Services
13.3x
+29%
5Y Avg
9.3x
+84%
PEG Ratio
1.38x
S&P 500
1.72x
-20%
Financial Services
1.01x
+36%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
37.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
+149%
Financial Services
11.4x
+231%
5Y Avg
31.2x
+21%
Price/FCF
6.4x
S&P 500
21.1x
-70%
Financial Services
10.6x
-39%
5Y Avg
5.2x
+23%
Price/Sales
2.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-21%
Financial Services
2.2x
+11%
5Y Avg
1.7x
+49%
Dividend Yield
2.57%
S&P 500
1.87%
+38%
Financial Services
2.70%
-5%
5Y Avg
4.56%
-44%
| Metric | RY | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg RY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.3x | 19.1x-41% | 10.4x | — |
| Trailing PE | 17.2x | 25.1x-31% | 13.3x+29% | 9.3x+84% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.38x | 1.72x-20% | 1.01x+36% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 37.8x | 15.2x+149% | 11.4x+231% | 31.2x+21% |
| Price/FCF | 6.4x | 21.1x-70% | 10.6x-39% | 5.2x+23% |
| Price/Sales | 2.5x | 3.1x-21% | 2.2x+11% | 1.7x+49% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.57% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 4.56% |
RY trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolRY Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
RY generates 14.6% ROE and 0.9% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$14.44
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
14.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$87.4B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$747.6B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
14.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.5%
Dividend
2.6%
Buyback
4.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$13.5B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$6.24
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
43.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.4B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageRY Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Mortgage Renewal Stress
Millions of Canadians will renew mortgages at higher rates in 2026, potentially increasing retail credit stress. Rising rates could lead to higher default rates and reduced loan quality, impacting RY's loan portfolio.
High Risk
Interest Rate Risk
RY’s net interest margin is sensitive to changes in borrowing and lending rates due to its short‑term funding and long‑term loan structure. A shift in rates could compress margins and reduce profitability.
High Risk
Liquidity Risk
RY must maintain sufficient cash and liquid assets to meet short‑term obligations. Rising competition for deposits and complex products could strain liquidity, especially during market stress.
High Risk
Credit Default Risk
The possibility of borrower defaults or late payments remains a core risk for banks. Credit losses could erode RY’s capital and earnings if default rates rise.
High Risk
Leverage Sensitivity
RY’s debt‑to‑equity ratio of roughly 6x amplifies exposure to credit and interest‑rate shocks, potentially reducing loss‑absorbing capacity.
Medium
Capital Buffer Risk
Regulators may raise capital buffers during economic instability, which could constrain RY’s ability to deploy capital and grow earnings.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why RY Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Revenue & EPS Growth Momentum
Royal Bank of Canada has shown consistent earnings growth, with revenue rising from C$14.2 billion in Q4 2024 to C$16.9 billion in Q1 2026. Basic EPS climbed to C$4.03 in Q1 2026, and the bank projects EPS growth of 9–13 % for FY26–FY27, supported by a 15.4 % net profit margin.
HSBC Canada Acquisition Synergy
The recent acquisition of HSBC Canada is expected to bolster RY’s Personal and Commercial Banking footprint, adding new client segments and cross‑sell opportunities that will drive future revenue growth.
Dividend Yield & Shareholder Returns
RY has increased its quarterly dividend to C$1.54 per share, delivering a 3.47 % yield. The low payout ratio and proven dividend growth provide a solid return to shareholders while leaving room for reinvestment.
Technical Breakout Opportunity
RY is showing signs of breaking out from a multi‑month consolidation pattern, with key resistance around $175–$177. A decisive move above this zone on strong volume could signal a resumption of its uptrend.
Robust Balance Sheet & Credit Rating
RY maintains an A‑level credit rating and lower leverage, underscoring its strong balance sheet and providing a cushion against macro headwinds.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
RY Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$178.48
52W Range Position
96%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$119.59
+49.2% from the low
52-Week High
$180.89
-1.3% from the high
1 Month
+8.53%
3 Month
+5.71%
YTD
+4.5%
1 Year
+47.5%
3Y CAGR
+22.1%
5Y CAGR
+13.0%
10Y CAGR
+11.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
RY vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.3x
vs 10.8x median
+4% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-11.4%
vs -12.2% median
+7% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RY RY Royal Bank of Canada | $249.9B | 11.3x | -11.4% | — | Hold | -30.0% |
TD TD The Toronto-Dominion Bank | $177.6B | 11.3x | -13.6% | — | Hold | -15.5% |
BMO BMO Bank of Montreal | $107.1B | 10.7x | -12.2% | — | Buy | -39.1% |
BNS BNS The Bank of Nova Scotia | $94.8B | 9.4x | +8.4% | — | Buy | -5.9% |
CM CM Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | $102.0B | 10.8x | -13.7% | — | Hold | -3.2% |
JPM JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. | $834.2B | 13.9x | -6.4% | — | Buy | +9.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
RY Dividend and Capital Return
RY returns capital mainly through $13.5B/year in buybacks (4.0% buyback yield), with a modest 2.57% dividend — combining for 6.5% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 10 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
6.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.0%
Dividend Yield
2.57%
Payout Ratio
43.2%
How RY Splits Its Return
Div 2.57%
Buyback 4.0%
Dividend 2.57%Buybacks 4.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$6.24
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
10Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.1%
5Y Div CAGR
6.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$13.5B
Estimated Shares Retired
76M
Approx. Share Reduction
5.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.4B
At 5.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.40 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.32 | +6.0% | 6.5% | 10.8% |
| 2024 | $4.08 | +2.9% | 3.9% | 7.8% |
| 2023 | $3.96 | +3.5% | 3.7% | 8.7% |
| 2022 | $3.83 | +11.2% | 8.7% | 14.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsRY Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Royal Bank of Canada (RY) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Royal Bank of Canada (RY) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 29 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $125, implying -30.0% from the current price of $178. The bear case scenario is $184 and the bull case is $694.
02What is the RY stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for RY is $125 based on 29 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $193 (+8.1% from today), and the low-end target is $94 (-47.3%). The base case model target is $281.
03Is Royal Bank of Canada (RY) stock overvalued in 2026?
RY trades at 11.3x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Royal Bank of Canada (RY) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for RY in 2026 are: (1) Mortgage Renewal Stress — Millions of Canadians will renew mortgages at higher rates in 2026, potentially increasing retail credit stress. (2) Interest Rate Risk — RY’s net interest margin is sensitive to changes in borrowing and lending rates due to its short‑term funding and long‑term loan structure. (3) Liquidity Risk — RY must maintain sufficient cash and liquid assets to meet short‑term obligations. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Royal Bank of Canada's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates RY will report consensus revenue of $121.8B (-11.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $15.97 (+10.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $128.5B in revenue.
06When does Royal Bank of Canada (RY) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for RY is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Royal Bank of Canada generate?
Royal Bank of Canada (RY) generated $53.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. RY returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.6% yield) and share repurchases ($13.5B TTM).