Upside case
Bull case
$739+114.4%
CBOE would need investors to value it at roughly 59x earnings — about 31x more generous than today's 27x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
31
analysts
14 bullish · 4 bearish · 31 covering CBOE
Strong Buy
2
Buy
12
Hold
13
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$296
-14.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$120 – $739
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
31
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
27.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $36.1B
CBOE price targets
Three scenarios for where CBOE stock could go
Current
~$344
Confidence
56 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $344
Bear
$120
Base
$402
Bull
$739
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$402+16.6%
At 32x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$120-65.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 18x multiple contraction could push CBOE down roughly 65% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Cboe Global Markets, Inc.
CBOE · AMEXFinancial ServicesFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesDecember year-end
Cboe Global Markets operates a global network of securities exchanges and trading venues. It generates revenue primarily from transaction fees across its options, equities, futures, and foreign exchange segments — with options trading being its largest revenue driver. The company's key advantage is its dominant market position in U.S. options trading, particularly in proprietary products like the VIX volatility index, which creates network effects and high switching costs.
Market Cap
$36.1B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
CBOE Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.46/$2.42
Revenue
$1.2B/$574M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.67/$2.53
Revenue
$1.1B/$624M
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.06/$2.94
Revenue
$671M/$660M
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.70/$3.34
Revenue
$729M/$703M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.46/$2.42 | +1.7% | $1.2B/$574M | +104.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.67/$2.53 | +5.5% | $1.1B/$624M | +82.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.06/$2.94 | +4.1% | $671M/$660M | +1.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.70/$3.34 | +10.8% | $729M/$703M | +3.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.5B
-4.0% YoY
FY2
$5.3B
+17.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.82
+3.3% YoY
FY2
$12.15
+12.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.2B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
CBOE beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CBOE Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Transaction And Clearing Fees
76.3%
+23.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North American Equities
81.5%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Transaction And Clearing Fees is the largest disclosed segment at 76.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 23.9% YoY.
North American Equities is the largest reported region at 81.5%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
CBOE Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $201 — implies -38.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
38.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CBOE
33.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+31% premium
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
CBOE
33.1x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+147% premium
vs CBOE 5Y Avg P/E
Today
33.1x
vs
5Y Average
32.0x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
27.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
+44%
Financial Services
10.5x
+162%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
33.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
+31%
Financial Services
13.4x
+147%
5Y Avg
32.0x
+3%
PEG Ratio
1.69x
S&P 500
1.75x
-3%
Financial Services
1.03x
+65%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
21.7x
S&P 500
15.3x
+42%
Financial Services
11.4x
+90%
5Y Avg
17.5x
+24%
Price/FCF
31.3x
S&P 500
21.3x
+47%
Financial Services
10.6x
+194%
5Y Avg
22.4x
+40%
Price/Sales
7.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+144%
Financial Services
2.3x
+240%
5Y Avg
4.6x
+66%
Dividend Yield
0.79%
S&P 500
1.88%
-58%
Financial Services
2.68%
-71%
5Y Avg
1.28%
-39%
| Metric | CBOE | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg CBOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 27.5x | 19.1x+44% | 10.5x+162% | — |
| Trailing PE | 33.1x | 25.2x+31% | 13.4x+147% | 32.0x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.69x | 1.75x | 1.03x+65% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.7x | 15.3x+42% | 11.4x+90% | 17.5x+24% |
| Price/FCF | 31.3x | 21.3x+47% | 10.6x+194% | 22.4x+40% |
| Price/Sales | 7.7x | 3.1x+144% | 2.3x+240% | 4.6x+66% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.79% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 1.28% |
CBOE trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCBOE Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
CBOE generates 23.0% ROE and 12.2% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$10.48
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
23.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
17.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
12.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.2B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$532M
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
23.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.1%
Dividend
0.8%
Buyback
0.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$97M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.71
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
25.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
105M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageCBOE Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Market Volatility Impact
Cboe’s revenue is highly sensitive to market volatility; spikes or drops in volatility directly affect trading volumes in its VIX and S&P 500 options products. A prolonged low‑volatility environment can reduce transaction fees and erode earnings, potentially causing significant revenue compression.
High Risk
Regulatory & Compliance Enforcement
The company has faced SEC charges for inadequate enforcement of rules against abusive short selling and other compliance breakdowns. Such regulatory actions can result in fines, increased oversight costs, and reputational damage that may materially affect profitability.
Medium
Operational & Systemic Risk
Cboe has experienced systemic breakdowns in its regulatory and compliance functions, prompting the implementation of risk‑management tools like order collars and fat‑finger protection. While these controls mitigate over‑executions, any failure in the clearing house’s risk framework could disrupt market continuity and expose the firm to default losses.
Medium
Revenue Concentration in Options Exchange
A significant portion of Cboe’s revenue derives from its options exchange, making the company vulnerable to shifts in options trading activity. A decline in options volume could materially reduce fee income and compress EBIT margins relative to peers.
Medium
Inflation‑Triggered Risk‑Off Event
Elevated inflation can trigger a risk‑off market sentiment, leading to lower trading activity across Cboe’s platforms. Reduced volumes during such periods can compress revenue streams and increase the cost of capital.
Lower
Asset‑Light Business Model
Cboe’s asset‑light model, which relies on licensing franchise assets and trading activities, provides some insulation from geopolitical risks. However, this structure also limits diversification and may expose the firm to concentrated market and regulatory risks.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CBOE Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Q4 2025 Revenue Surge
Cboe’s Q4 2025 net revenue jumped 28% to $671.1 million, while the options business alone generated $433.1 million—an increase of 34% YoY. The lift was driven by a 24% rise in total options average daily volume, with index options ADV up 35% and multi‑listed options ADV up 20%.
EPS Growth Momentum
Diluted earnings per share surged 60% in Q4 2025 to $2.97, and the full‑year diluted EPS rose 45% to $10.42. These gains reflect the company’s expanding revenue base and efficient cost management.
High‑Margin Options Expansion
Cboe’s exclusive trading rights for key index options, including Zero‑Day‑to‑Expiration (0DTE) products, position it as a market leader. The high‑margin options segment is bolstered by index options ADV growth of 35% and multi‑listed options ADV up 20%.
Solid Financial Health
The firm reported a robust return on equity of 22.02% and maintains a low debt‑to‑equity ratio of 0.34, underscoring strong financial stability and disciplined capital management.
Strategic Focus & International Growth
Cboe is realigning to concentrate on core, high‑margin businesses while exiting non‑core areas. International expansion and the development of recurring, high‑margin data services are enhancing revenue stability, and retail engagement has driven options volume growth that outpaces industry futures volumes.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CBOE Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$344.43
52W Range Position
98%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$212.75
+61.9% from the low
52-Week High
$346.48
-0.6% from the high
1 Month
+16.46%
3 Month
+26.00%
YTD
+38.8%
1 Year
+47.6%
3Y CAGR
+36.2%
5Y CAGR
+26.3%
10Y CAGR
+18.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CBOE vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
27.5x
vs 22.7x median
+21% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-4.0%
vs +6.8% median
-159% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CBO CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | $36.1B | 27.5x | -4.0% | — | Hold | -14.1% |
CME CME CME Group Inc. | $104.6B | 23.6x | +6.8% | — | Hold | +11.1% |
ICE ICE Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. | $86.9B | 19.1x | +1.2% | — | Buy | +27.6% |
NDA NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. | $50.7B | 22.7x | -2.6% | — | Buy | +28.5% |
MKT MKTX MarketAxess Holdings Inc. | $5.5B | 18.2x | +9.4% | — | Hold | +31.4% |
MSC MSCI MSCI Inc. | $42.4B | 29.7x | +10.2% | — | Buy | +15.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CBOE Dividend and Capital Return
CBOE returns 1.1% total yield, led by a 0.79% dividend, raised 11 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.3%
Dividend Yield
0.79%
Payout Ratio
25.8%
How CBOE Splits Its Return
Div 0.79%
Buyback 0.3%
Dividend 0.79%Buybacks 0.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.71
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
11Y
3Y Div CAGR
11.3%
5Y Div CAGR
11.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$97M
Estimated Shares Retired
280.2K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
105M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.72 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.70 | +14.4% | 0.4% | 1.4% |
| 2024 | $2.36 | +12.4% | 1.1% | 2.3% |
| 2023 | $2.10 | +7.1% | 0.6% | 1.8% |
| 2022 | $1.96 | +8.9% | 0.8% | 2.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsCBOE Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 31 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $296, implying -14.1% from the current price of $344. The bear case scenario is $120 and the bull case is $739.
02What is the CBOE stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CBOE is $296 based on 31 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $321 (-6.8% from today), and the low-end target is $273 (-20.7%). The base case model target is $402.
03Is Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE) stock overvalued in 2026?
CBOE trades at 27.5x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CBOE in 2026 are: (1) Market Volatility Impact — Cboe’s revenue is highly sensitive to market volatility; spikes or drops in volatility directly affect trading volumes in its VIX and S&P 500 options products. (2) Regulatory & Compliance Enforcement — The company has faced SEC charges for inadequate enforcement of rules against abusive short selling and other compliance breakdowns. (3) Operational & Systemic Risk — Cboe has experienced systemic breakdowns in its regulatory and compliance functions, prompting the implementation of risk‑management tools like order collars and fat‑finger protection. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Cboe Global Markets, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CBOE will report consensus revenue of $4.5B (-4.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.82 (+3.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.3B in revenue.
06When does Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for CBOE is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Cboe Global Markets, Inc. generate?
Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE) generated $1.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. CBOE returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.8% yield) and share repurchases ($97M TTM).