Upside case
Bull case
$381+32.2%
CME would need investors to value it at roughly 31x earnings — about 8x more generous than today's 24x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
CME Group Inc. (CME) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
35
analysts
13 bullish · 5 bearish · 35 covering CME
Strong Buy
0
Buy
13
Hold
17
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$320
+11.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$205 – $381
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
35
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
23.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $104.6B
CME price targets
Three scenarios for where CME stock could go
Current
~$288
Confidence
66 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $288
Bear
$205
Base
$279
Bull
$381
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$279-3.2%
This is close to how the market is already pricing CME — at roughly 23x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$205-28.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push CME down roughly 29% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
CME Group Inc.
CME · NASDAQFinancial ServicesFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesDecember year-end
CME Group operates the world's largest financial derivatives exchange, where traders buy and sell futures and options contracts. It generates revenue primarily from clearing and transaction fees — about 80% of total revenue — with the remainder coming from market data and information services. The company's dominant moat comes from its massive network effect, where its deep liquidity attracts more participants, which in turn creates even deeper liquidity.
Market Cap
$104.6B
Net Income TTM
$4.2B
CME Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.96/$2.91
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.68/$2.63
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.77/$2.75
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.36/$3.34
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.96/$2.91 | +1.7% | $1.7B/$1.7B | +0.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.68/$2.63 | +1.9% | $1.5B/$1.5B | +0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.77/$2.75 | +0.7% | $1.6B/$1.6B | +0.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.36/$3.34 | +0.6% | $1.9B/$1.9B | +0.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$7.0B
+6.8% YoY
FY2
$7.4B
+5.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.35
-11.4% YoY
FY2
$10.80
+4.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.4B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
CME beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CME Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $6.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
clearing and transaction fees
81.0%
+5.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
clearing and transaction fees is the largest disclosed segment at 81.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.9% YoY.
CME Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $356 — implies +22.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
22.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CME
25.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
In line with benchmark
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
CME
25.8x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+93% premium
vs CME 5Y Avg P/E
Today
25.8x
vs
5Y Average
25.3x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
23.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
+24%
Financial Services
10.5x
+125%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
25.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
+2%
Financial Services
13.4x
+93%
5Y Avg
25.3x
+2%
PEG Ratio
1.88x
S&P 500
1.75x
+8%
Financial Services
1.03x
+84%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
23.1x
S&P 500
15.3x
+51%
Financial Services
11.4x
+102%
5Y Avg
21.4x
+8%
Price/FCF
24.9x
S&P 500
21.3x
+17%
Financial Services
10.6x
+135%
5Y Avg
25.1x
-1%
Price/Sales
16.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+412%
Financial Services
2.3x
+612%
5Y Avg
14.4x
+12%
Dividend Yield
3.79%
S&P 500
1.88%
+102%
Financial Services
2.68%
+41%
5Y Avg
3.92%
-3%
| Metric | CME | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg CME |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 23.6x | 19.1x+24% | 10.5x+125% | — |
| Trailing PE | 25.8x | 25.2x | 13.4x+93% | 25.3x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.88x | 1.75x | 1.03x+84% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.1x | 15.3x+51% | 11.4x+102% | 21.4x |
| Price/FCF | 24.9x | 21.3x+17% | 10.6x+135% | 25.1x |
| Price/Sales | 16.0x | 3.1x+412% | 2.3x+612% | 14.4x+12% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.79% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 3.92% |
CME trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCME Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
CME generates 15.3% ROE and 2.2% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$11.68
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
15.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$4.4B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$666M
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
15.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.0%
Dividend
3.8%
Buyback
0.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$266M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$10.92
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
97.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
363M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageCME Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Market Volatility Impact
Extended periods of low market volatility can sharply reduce trading volumes, a primary revenue driver for CME Group. This contraction can compress margins due to the company's largely fixed‑cost infrastructure. Conversely, spikes in volatility can boost trading activity and revenue as participants use hedging instruments.
High Risk
Competitive Threats
New entrants such as FMX pose a risk to CME Group’s market share, especially in core products like interest‑rate futures. If competitors offer more attractive pricing or innovative products, they could erode CME’s dominant position and reduce trading volumes.
High Risk
Regulatory & Tax Risk
Changes in the regulatory landscape can impact trading volumes and margins, while future regulatory and tax environments remain uncertain. Economic, political, and market conditions, including government policies, can further affect CME’s performance.
High Risk
Operational & System Reliability
The company must ensure its trading and clearing systems can handle increased volume and traffic without failure. Operational incidents, such as temporary trading suspensions, have occurred, and the ability of financial safeguards to protect against credit risks of clearing members is also a factor.
Medium
Technology & Innovation
CME Group must keep pace with rapid technological developments to meet customer needs and maintain system performance. Investments in technology, such as AI, could impact earnings and require significant capital outlays.
Medium
Transaction Tax Risk
The imposition of transaction taxes on futures and options could negatively impact trading activity and reduce revenue streams. Such taxes would increase the cost of trading for participants and potentially shift volume to alternative venues.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CME Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
World‑Leading Derivatives Marketplace
CME Group operates the world’s leading derivatives marketplace, providing critical infrastructure for futures and options across interest rates, equities, currencies, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. Its network effects mean that liquidity attracts more traders, which in turn strengthens its dominant position.
Consistent Revenue Growth 2025
CME posted a 6.32% revenue increase in 2025, reaching $6.51 billion. The growth is driven by strong trading volumes, especially in the Market Data segment, and has resulted in record operating income and Adjusted EPS.
Volatility Drives Trading Activity
Geopolitical uncertainty, interest‑rate swings, and economic shifts increase market volatility, which directly benefits CME by boosting trading activity and the demand for hedging instruments.
Robust Dividend & Repurchase Program
CME has consistently raised its quarterly dividend, issued special dividends, and announced significant share‑repurchase programs, underscoring a strong commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
Crypto Futures & 24/7 Trading
CME is launching regulated cryptocurrency futures and options and exploring 24/7 trading, creating new revenue streams and diversifying beyond traditional asset classes.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CME Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$288.34
52W Range Position
43%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$257.17
+12.1% from the low
52-Week High
$329.16
-12.4% from the high
1 Month
-6.56%
3 Month
-4.61%
YTD
+6.9%
1 Year
+1.9%
3Y CAGR
+15.8%
5Y CAGR
+7.1%
10Y CAGR
+12.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CME vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
23.6x
vs 22.7x median
+4% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.8%
vs +1.2% median
+442% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CME CME CME Group Inc. | $104.6B | 23.6x | +6.8% | — | Hold | +11.1% |
ICE ICE Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. | $86.9B | 19.1x | +1.2% | — | Buy | +27.6% |
CBO CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | $36.1B | 27.5x | -4.0% | — | Hold | -14.1% |
NDA NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. | $50.7B | 22.7x | -2.6% | — | Buy | +28.5% |
MKT MKTX MarketAxess Holdings Inc. | $5.5B | 18.2x | +9.4% | — | Hold | +31.4% |
MSC MSCI MSCI Inc. | $42.4B | 29.7x | +10.2% | — | Buy | +15.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CME Dividend and Capital Return
CME returns 4.1% total yield, led by a 3.81% dividend, raised 6 consecutive years.
Dividend At RiskFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
4.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.3%
Dividend Yield
3.81%
Payout Ratio
97.2%
How CME Splits Its Return
Div 3.81%
Dividend 3.81%Buybacks 0.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$10.92
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
6Y
3Y Div CAGR
-16.2%
5Y Div CAGR
-3.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$266M
Estimated Shares Retired
922.9K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
363M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $7.45 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $5.00 | -51.9% | 0.3% | 4.3% |
| 2024 | $10.40 | +7.8% | 0.0% | 4.3% |
| 2023 | $9.65 | +13.5% | 0.0% | 4.3% |
| 2022 | $8.50 | +24.1% | 0.0% | 4.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsCME Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is CME Group Inc. (CME) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
CME Group Inc. (CME) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 35 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 17 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $320, implying +11.1% from the current price of $288. The bear case scenario is $205 and the bull case is $381.
02What is the CME stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CME is $320 based on 35 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $353 (+22.4% from today), and the low-end target is $302 (+4.7%). The base case model target is $279.
03Is CME Group Inc. (CME) stock overvalued in 2026?
CME trades at 23.6x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for CME Group Inc. (CME) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CME in 2026 are: (1) Market Volatility Impact — Extended periods of low market volatility can sharply reduce trading volumes, a primary revenue driver for CME Group. (2) Competitive Threats — New entrants such as FMX pose a risk to CME Group’s market share, especially in core products like interest‑rate futures. (3) Regulatory & Tax Risk — Changes in the regulatory landscape can impact trading volumes and margins, while future regulatory and tax environments remain uncertain. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is CME Group Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CME will report consensus revenue of $7.0B (+6.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.35 (-11.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $7.4B in revenue.
06When does CME Group Inc. (CME) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for CME is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does CME Group Inc. generate?
CME Group Inc. (CME) generated $4.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. CME returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.8% yield) and share repurchases ($266M TTM).