Upside case
Bull case
$116+29.9%
NDAQ would need investors to value it at roughly 29x earnings — about 7x more generous than today's 23x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
36
analysts
22 bullish · 1 bearish · 36 covering NDAQ
Strong Buy
0
Buy
22
Hold
13
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$115
+28.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$63 – $116
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
36
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
22.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $50.7B
NDAQ price targets
Three scenarios for where NDAQ stock could go
Current
~$89
Confidence
66 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $89
Bear
$63
Base
$106
Bull
$116
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$106+19.0%
At 27x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$63-29.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push NDAQ down roughly 29% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Nasdaq, Inc.
NDAQ · NASDAQFinancial ServicesFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesDecember year-end
Nasdaq is a global technology company that operates stock exchanges and provides market infrastructure, data, and analytics services. It generates revenue through transaction fees from its exchanges (~30%), market data and index licensing (~40%), and technology solutions for financial institutions (~30%). Its competitive advantage lies in its network effects as a premier listing venue and its deep integration into global capital markets infrastructure.
Market Cap
$50.7B
Net Income TTM
$1.9B
NDAQ Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.85/$0.81
Revenue
$2.1B/$1.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.88/$0.85
Revenue
$2.0B/$1.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.96/$0.92
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.96/$0.93
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.85/$0.81 | +4.4% | $2.1B/$1.3B | +63.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.88/$0.85 | +3.3% | $2.0B/$1.3B | +50.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.96/$0.92 | +4.1% | $1.4B/$1.4B | +1.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.96/$0.93 | +3.2% | $1.4B/$1.4B | +2.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$8.0B
-2.6% YoY
FY2
$9.1B
+13.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.34
-0.1% YoY
FY2
$3.68
+10.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.0B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
NDAQ beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
NDAQ Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $8.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Market Services
51.4%
+11.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
72.0%
+2.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Market Services is the largest disclosed segment at 51.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 11.7% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 72.0%, up 2.2% YoY.
NDAQ Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $85 — implies -6.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
6.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NDAQ
28.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+14% premium
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
NDAQ
28.9x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+116% premium
vs NDAQ 5Y Avg P/E
Today
28.9x
vs
5Y Average
31.3x
8% discount
Forward PE
22.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
+19%
Financial Services
10.5x
+116%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
28.9x
S&P 500
25.2x
+14%
Financial Services
13.4x
+116%
5Y Avg
31.3x
-8%
PEG Ratio
2.70x
S&P 500
1.75x
+55%
Financial Services
1.03x
+163%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
20.2x
S&P 500
15.3x
+32%
Financial Services
11.4x
+77%
5Y Avg
21.8x
-7%
Price/FCF
25.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
+20%
Financial Services
10.6x
+140%
5Y Avg
26.3x
-3%
Price/Sales
6.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+97%
Financial Services
2.3x
+174%
5Y Avg
5.7x
+8%
Dividend Yield
1.17%
S&P 500
1.88%
-38%
Financial Services
2.68%
-56%
5Y Avg
1.20%
-3%
| Metric | NDAQ | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg NDAQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 22.7x | 19.1x+19% | 10.5x+116% | — |
| Trailing PE | 28.9x | 25.2x+14% | 13.4x+116% | 31.3x |
| PEG Ratio | 2.70x | 1.75x+55% | 1.03x+163% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.2x | 15.3x+32% | 11.4x+77% | 21.8x |
| Price/FCF | 25.5x | 21.3x+20% | 10.6x+140% | 26.3x |
| Price/Sales | 6.2x | 3.1x+97% | 2.3x+174% | 5.7x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.17% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 1.20% |
NDAQ trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNDAQ Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
NDAQ generates 15.9% ROE and 6.4% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.35
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
15.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$814M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$9.1B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
15.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.4%
Dividend
1.2%
Buyback
1.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$616M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.04
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
33.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
568M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageNDAQ Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Capital Market Activity
Uncertainty surrounding the recovery of capital markets and a projected decline in earnings per share for fiscal year 2026 could hinder debt paydown efforts and overall growth.
High Risk
IPO Market Volatility
A slow or declining IPO market can put pressure on Nasdaq's listings business, reducing revenue generation from new listings.
High Risk
Trading Volume Fluctuations
Declining trading volumes, driven by macroeconomic headwinds, monetary policy uncertainty, or a potential EU financial transaction tax, can negatively affect Nasdaq's performance.
Medium
Integration of Acquisitions
Challenges in integrating recent acquisitions such as AxiomSL and Calypso (Adenza) could impact revenue generation and create operational complexities.
Medium
Technological Dependence
Reliance on partners like Amazon Web Services for its Eqlipse platform introduces risks such as potential AWS outages that could disrupt service availability.
Medium
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Nasdaq's debt-to-equity ratio is the highest among its peer group, indicating a slightly higher leverage risk that could affect financial flexibility.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NDAQ Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
EPS Beat and Revenue Growth
In Q4 2025, Nasdaq reported $0.96 EPS, beating analyst estimates of $0.92. 2025 net revenue hit $5.2 billion, up 13% YoY, while total revenue rose 11.05% to $8.218 billion.
Strong ARR Growth
Nasdaq’s Annualized Recurring Revenue reached $2.74 billion in Q3 2024, marking a 31% year‑over‑year increase, underscoring its recurring revenue base.
Diversification into Tech & Data
The company is shifting from a traditional exchange model to a diversified technology and data‑driven enterprise, reducing reliance on trading fees and integrating AI into market surveillance.
Strategic Acquisitions Fuel Growth
Acquisitions such as AxiomSL and Calypso (now Adenza) expand Nasdaq’s financial technology portfolio and create cross‑selling opportunities across its ecosystem.
Digital Assets Expansion
Nasdaq secured SEC approval for a tokenized stock trading pilot and partnered to integrate tokenized collateral management, positioning it in the growing digital asset market.
Solid Balance Sheet & Income
With a 28.2% operating margin, a 1.3% dividend yield, and a moderate debt‑to‑equity ratio of 0.70, Nasdaq demonstrates strong financial health and shareholder returns.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NDAQ Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$89.20
52W Range Position
49%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$77.09
+15.7% from the low
52-Week High
$101.79
-12.4% from the high
1 Month
+1.48%
3 Month
+5.15%
YTD
-7.7%
1 Year
+14.2%
3Y CAGR
+17.5%
5Y CAGR
+10.3%
10Y CAGR
+15.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NDAQ vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
22.7x
vs 23.6x median
-4% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-2.6%
vs +6.8% median
-138% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NDA NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. | $50.7B | 22.7x | -2.6% | — | Buy | +28.5% |
ICE ICE Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. | $86.9B | 19.1x | +1.2% | — | Buy | +27.6% |
CME CME CME Group Inc. | $104.6B | 23.6x | +6.8% | — | Hold | +11.1% |
CBO CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | $36.1B | 27.5x | -4.0% | — | Hold | -14.1% |
MKT MKTX MarketAxess Holdings Inc. | $5.5B | 18.2x | +9.4% | — | Hold | +31.4% |
TW TW Tradeweb Markets Inc. | $23.3B | 27.1x | +17.5% | — | Buy | +19.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NDAQ Dividend and Capital Return
NDAQ returns 2.4% annually — 1.17% through dividends and 1.2% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.2%
Dividend Yield
1.17%
Payout Ratio
33.6%
How NDAQ Splits Its Return
Div 1.17%
Buyback 1.2%
Dividend 1.17%Buybacks 1.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.04
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
13Y
3Y Div CAGR
10.4%
5Y Div CAGR
10.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$616M
Estimated Shares Retired
7M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
568M
At 1.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.58 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.05 | +11.7% | 1.1% | 2.2% |
| 2024 | $0.94 | +9.3% | 0.3% | 1.5% |
| 2023 | $0.86 | +10.3% | 0.9% | 2.4% |
| 2022 | $0.78 | +10.9% | 2.1% | 3.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsNDAQ Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 36 analysts covering the stock, 22 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $115, implying +28.5% from the current price of $89. The bear case scenario is $63 and the bull case is $116.
02What is the NDAQ stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NDAQ is $115 based on 36 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $120 (+34.5% from today), and the low-end target is $109 (+22.2%). The base case model target is $106.
03Is Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) stock overvalued in 2026?
NDAQ trades at 22.7x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NDAQ in 2026 are: (1) Capital Market Activity — Uncertainty surrounding the recovery of capital markets and a projected decline in earnings per share for fiscal year 2026 could hinder debt paydown efforts and overall growth. (2) IPO Market Volatility — A slow or declining IPO market can put pressure on Nasdaq's listings business, reducing revenue generation from new listings. (3) Trading Volume Fluctuations — Declining trading volumes, driven by macroeconomic headwinds, monetary policy uncertainty, or a potential EU financial transaction tax, can negatively affect Nasdaq's performance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Nasdaq, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NDAQ will report consensus revenue of $8.0B (-2.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.34 (-0.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $9.1B in revenue.
06When does Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for NDAQ is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Nasdaq, Inc. generate?
Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) generated $2.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. NDAQ returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.2% yield) and share repurchases ($616M TTM).