Upside case
Bull case
$307+102.9%
EXPD would need investors to value it at roughly 51x earnings — about 26x more generous than today's 25x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
33
analysts
4 bullish · 9 bearish · 33 covering EXPD
Strong Buy
0
Buy
4
Hold
20
Sell
9
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$140
-7.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$153 – $307
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
33
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
25.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $20.1B
EXPD price targets
Three scenarios for where EXPD stock could go
Current
~$151
Confidence
61 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $151
Bear
$153
Base
$168
Bull
$307
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$168+11.2%
This is close to how the market is already pricing EXPD — at roughly 28x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$153+1.4%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push EXPD down roughly 1% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.
EXPD · NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsDecember year-end
Expeditors International is a global logistics and freight forwarding company that coordinates the movement of goods by air, ocean, and ground transportation. It generates revenue primarily from airfreight services (roughly 40% of revenue), ocean freight services (roughly 35%), and customs brokerage and other logistics services (roughly 25%). The company's competitive advantage lies in its sophisticated global network and proprietary technology platform that optimizes complex supply chains for customers.
Market Cap
$20.1B
Revenue TTM
$11.2B
Net Income TTM
$837M
Net Margin
7.5%
EXPD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.34/$1.25
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.64/$1.39
Revenue
$2.9B/$2.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.49/$1.47
Revenue
$2.9B/$2.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.71/$1.33
Revenue
$2.8B/$2.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.34/$1.25 | +7.2% | $2.7B/$2.4B | +9.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.64/$1.39 | +18.0% | $2.9B/$2.7B | +6.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.49/$1.47 | +1.4% | $2.9B/$2.8B | +1.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.71/$1.33 | +28.6% | $2.8B/$2.6B | +6.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$11.1B
-0.7% YoY
FY2
$11.1B
+0.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.33
+1.4% YoY
FY2
$6.62
+4.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$921M
FCF Margin: 8.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
EXPD beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
EXPD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $11.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Customs Brokerage And Other Services
38.6%
+12.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
United States Segment
32.4%
+10.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Customs Brokerage And Other Services is the largest disclosed segment at 38.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 12.9% YoY.
United States Segment is the largest reported region at 32.4%, up 10.2% YoY.
EXPD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $211 — implies +43.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
43.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
EXPD
25.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
In line with benchmark
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
EXPD
25.4x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
In line with benchmark
vs EXPD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
25.4x
vs
5Y Average
19.7x
+29% premium
Forward PE
25.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
+31%
Industrials
20.8x
+20%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
25.4x
S&P 500
25.2x
+1%
Industrials
25.9x
-2%
5Y Avg
19.7x
+29%
PEG Ratio
3.22x
S&P 500
1.75x
+85%
Industrials
1.59x
+103%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
17.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
+14%
Industrials
13.9x
+26%
5Y Avg
13.7x
+27%
Price/FCF
21.1x
S&P 500
21.3x
-1%
Industrials
20.6x
+2%
5Y Avg
19.8x
+6%
Price/Sales
1.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-42%
Industrials
1.6x
+14%
5Y Avg
1.6x
+17%
Dividend Yield
1.01%
S&P 500
1.88%
-46%
Industrials
1.24%
-19%
5Y Avg
1.10%
-8%
| Metric | EXPD | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg EXPD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 25.0x | 19.1x+31% | 20.8x+20% | — |
| Trailing PE | 25.4x | 25.2x | 25.9x | 19.7x+29% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.22x | 1.75x+85% | 1.59x+103% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.5x | 15.3x+14% | 13.9x+26% | 13.7x+27% |
| Price/FCF | 21.1x | 21.3x | 20.6x | 19.8x |
| Price/Sales | 1.8x | 3.1x-42% | 1.6x+14% | 1.6x+17% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.01% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 1.10% |
EXPD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolEXPD Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
EXPD generates $921M in free cash flow at a 8.2% margin — 48.4% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 4.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$11.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+1.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
20.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.24
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$921M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
48.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
17.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.3B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$744M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
36.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.3%
Dividend
1.0%
Buyback
3.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$667M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.52
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
25.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
133M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageEXPD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Macroeconomic Risks
Stubborn global inflation, particularly in the US, poses a significant risk to consumer spending on travel. This inflation could lead to increased prices, further exacerbated by potential tariff wars that may raise domestic prices.
High Risk
Geopolitical Instability
Tensions in the Middle East have resulted in increased oil prices and flight cancellations, which broadly affect the travel industry. Although Expedia's direct exposure to this region is smaller than some competitors, a general 'risk-off' sentiment can negatively impact all travel equities.
High Risk
High Debt Reliance
Expedia operates with a significant reliance on debt compared to shareholder equity, which can amplify returns in favorable conditions but increases the risk of financial distress during economic downturns. The company carries substantial long-term and short-term debt.
Medium
Travel Demand Sustainability
While travel demand has shown resilience, the long-term sustainability of this growth remains uncertain. This uncertainty makes future financial performance difficult to predict, potentially impacting investor confidence.
Medium
Marketing Efficiency
Expedia allocates a significant portion of its revenue to marketing to compete with other online travel agencies and search engines. The effectiveness of its 'OneKey' loyalty program in driving direct traffic is crucial for maintaining profit margins.
Medium
Potential Value Trap
A low Altman Z-score indicates a potential for financial distress, suggesting that the stock might be a value trap despite appearing undervalued. This could mislead investors regarding the company's financial health.
Lower
Customer Attrition
The transition of legacy customers to new reward structures has resulted in some attrition among long-time users who preferred older models. This shift may affect customer loyalty and retention.
Lower
Competition
The online travel market is highly competitive, and Expedia's reliance on a few core brands makes it vulnerable to shifts in consumer preferences. This competitive landscape could impact market share and profitability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why EXPD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Robust Revenue Growth
Expedia reported an 11.4% year-over-year revenue growth in its most recent performance, reaching $3.5 billion. For the full year 2025, revenue increased by 7.61% to $14.73 billion, driven by sustained travel demand and international expansion.
Strong B2B Performance
Expedia's business-to-business (B2B) segment has shown significant strength, with 19 consecutive quarters of double-digit growth. In the fourth quarter of 2025, B2B gross bookings grew by 24%, contributing positively to overall revenue growth.
Strategic Initiatives
The company's strategic initiatives, including the OneKey credit card partnership and a unified technology platform, are enhancing revenue streams and customer loyalty. Additionally, Expedia is leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to drive operational improvements.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
The consensus rating among analysts covering EXPE is a 'Moderate Buy,' with a significant number of 'Strong Buy' ratings. Many analysts have price targets that indicate substantial upside potential from the current stock price.
Resilient Travel Demand
The global travel market continues to show sustained demand, benefiting Expedia. Factors such as longer booking windows and increased consumer engagement indicate resilient spending trends in the travel sector.
Financial Health
Expedia maintains a strong cash position, with significant amounts of unrestricted cash and short-term investments. This provides the company with liquidity and financial stability to support its growth initiatives.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
EXPD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$151.24
52W Range Position
74%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$106.00
+42.7% from the low
52-Week High
$167.19
-9.5% from the high
1 Month
+3.97%
3 Month
-8.36%
YTD
-0.4%
1 Year
+42.4%
3Y CAGR
+9.1%
5Y CAGR
+5.5%
10Y CAGR
+12.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
EXPD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
25.0x
vs 17.8x median
+40% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-0.7%
vs +1.3% median
-159% below peer median
Net Margin
7.5%
vs 3.7% median
+102% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EXP EXPD Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. | $20.1B | 25.0x | -0.7% | 7.5% | Hold | -7.3% |
CHR CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | $20.0B | 27.4x | -2.1% | 3.7% | Hold | +11.1% |
FWR FWRD Forward Air Corporation | $573M | — | +7.0% | -4.3% | Hold | +101.5% |
GXO GXO GXO Logistics, Inc. | $5.7B | 16.6x | +21.3% | 0.9% | Buy | +45.7% |
UPS UPS United Parcel Service, Inc. | $84.9B | 14.1x | +0.0% | 5.9% | Hold | +15.4% |
FDX FDX FedEx Corporation | $88.7B | 19.1x | +1.3% | 4.9% | Buy | -3.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
EXPD Dividend and Capital Return
EXPD returns capital mainly through $667M/year in buybacks (3.3% buyback yield), with a modest 1.01% dividend — combining for 4.3% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 31 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.3%
Dividend Yield
1.01%
Payout Ratio
25.5%
How EXPD Splits Its Return
Div 1.01%
Buyback 3.3%
Dividend 1.01%Buybacks 3.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.52
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
31Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.7%
5Y Div CAGR
8.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$667M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
133M
At 3.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $1.54 | +5.5% | 3.3% | 4.3% |
| 2024 | $1.46 | +5.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% |
| 2023 | $1.38 | +3.0% | 7.3% | 8.3% |
| 2022 | $1.34 | +15.5% | 9.3% | 10.5% |
| 2021 | $1.16 | +11.5% | 2.2% | 3.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsEXPD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 4 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 20 rate it Hold, and 9 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $140, implying -7.3% from the current price of $151. The bear case scenario is $153 and the bull case is $307.
02What is the EXPD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for EXPD is $140 based on 33 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $166 (+9.8% from today), and the low-end target is $95 (-37.2%). The base case model target is $168.
03Is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) stock overvalued in 2026?
EXPD trades at 25.0x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for EXPD in 2026 are: (1) Macroeconomic Risks — Stubborn global inflation, particularly in the US, poses a significant risk to consumer spending on travel. (2) Geopolitical Instability — Tensions in the Middle East have resulted in increased oil prices and flight cancellations, which broadly affect the travel industry. (3) High Debt Reliance — Expedia operates with a significant reliance on debt compared to shareholder equity, which can amplify returns in favorable conditions but increases the risk of financial distress during economic downturns. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates EXPD will report consensus revenue of $11.1B (-0.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.33 (+1.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $11.1B in revenue.
06When does Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for EXPD is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. generate?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) generated $921M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.2%. EXPD returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.0% yield) and share repurchases ($667M TTM).