Upside case
Bull case
$266+65.1%
EXPD would need investors to value it at roughly 39x earnings — about 15x more generous than today's 24x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
33
analysts
4 bullish · 9 bearish · 33 covering EXPD
Strong Buy
0
Buy
4
Hold
20
Sell
9
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$152
-6.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$127 – $266
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
33
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
23.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $21.5B
EXPD price targets
Three scenarios for where EXPD stock could go
Current
~$161
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $161
Bear
$127
Base
$202
Bull
$266
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$202+25.3%
At 30x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$127-21.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push EXPD down roughly 21% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.
EXPD · NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsDecember year-end
Expeditors International is a global logistics and freight forwarding company that coordinates the movement of goods by air, ocean, and ground transportation. It generates revenue primarily from airfreight services (roughly 40% of revenue), ocean freight services (roughly 35%), and customs brokerage and other logistics services (roughly 25%). The company's competitive advantage lies in its sophisticated global network and proprietary technology platform that optimizes complex supply chains for customers.
Market Cap
$21.5B
Revenue TTM
$11.2B
Net Income TTM
$837M
Net Margin
7.5%
EXPD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.34/$1.25
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.64/$1.39
Revenue
$2.9B/$2.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.49/$1.47
Revenue
$2.9B/$2.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.71/$1.33
Revenue
$2.8B/$2.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.34/$1.25 | +7.2% | $2.7B/$2.4B | +9.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.64/$1.39 | +18.0% | $2.9B/$2.7B | +6.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.49/$1.47 | +1.4% | $2.9B/$2.8B | +1.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.71/$1.33 | +28.6% | $2.8B/$2.6B | +6.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$11.5B
+3.1% YoY
FY2
$11.8B
+2.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.82
+9.3% YoY
FY2
$7.22
+5.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$921M
FCF Margin: 8.2%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.64
Expected Revenue
$2.8B
EXPD beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
EXPD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $11.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Customs Brokerage And Other Services
38.6%
+12.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
United States Segment
32.4%
+10.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Customs Brokerage And Other Services is the largest disclosed segment at 38.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 12.9% YoY.
United States Segment is the largest reported region at 32.4%, up 10.2% YoY.
EXPD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fair versus peers
Fair value est. $170 — implies +5.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
5.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
EXPD
27.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+11% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
EXPD
27.1x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+6% premium
vs EXPD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
27.1x
vs
5Y Average
19.7x
+37% premium
Forward PE
23.8x
S&P 500
18.8x
+26%
Industrials
21.2x
+12%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
27.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
+11%
Industrials
25.6x
+6%
5Y Avg
19.7x
+37%
PEG Ratio
3.44x
S&P 500
1.66x
+107%
Industrials
1.65x
+109%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
18.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+23%
Industrials
13.9x
+34%
5Y Avg
13.7x
+36%
Price/FCF
22.5x
S&P 500
20.7x
+9%
Industrials
20.0x
+12%
5Y Avg
19.8x
+14%
Price/Sales
1.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-37%
Industrials
1.6x
+24%
5Y Avg
1.6x
+25%
Dividend Yield
0.94%
S&P 500
1.91%
-51%
Industrials
1.21%
-22%
5Y Avg
1.10%
-14%
| Metric | EXPD | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg EXPD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 23.8x | 18.8x+26% | 21.2x+12% | — |
| Trailing PE | 27.1x | 24.4x+11% | 25.6x | 19.7x+37% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.44x | 1.66x+107% | 1.65x+109% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.7x | 15.2x+23% | 13.9x+34% | 13.7x+36% |
| Price/FCF | 22.5x | 20.7x | 20.0x+12% | 19.8x+14% |
| Price/Sales | 1.9x | 3.1x-37% | 1.6x+24% | 1.6x+25% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.94% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 1.10% |
EXPD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolEXPD Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
EXPD generates $921M in free cash flow at a 8.2% margin — 48.4% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 4.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$11.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+1.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
20.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.24
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$921M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
48.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
17.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.3B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$744M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
36.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.1%
Dividend
0.9%
Buyback
3.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$667M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.52
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
25.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
133M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageEXPD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Medium-term risks unresolved
Expeditors International's Q1 2026 results showed near-term improvement but failed to address medium-term risks, contributing to a Hold rating.
High Risk
Bear case price target
The scenario-based model projects a bear case price target of $141 for EXPD, significantly below the base and bull cases, reflecting downside risks.
Lower
Market sentiment uncertainty
Analyst opinions and headlines suggest mixed sentiment around EXPD, with some recommending a Hold due to unresolved risks.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why EXPD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Global logistics network
Expeditors International operates in over 100 countries with 340 locations, providing a strong global presence and extensive service coverage.
Asset-light model
The company's non-asset-based approach allows for scalability and flexibility, reducing capital expenditures and operational risks.
Freight recovery potential
A durable recovery in freight rates and volumes could drive significant upside, leveraging operational efficiency and disciplined capital returns.
Operational leverage
The company's ability to scale operations efficiently could amplify earnings growth in a favorable freight market environment.
Industry specialization
As a specialized international freight forwarding and 3PL provider, Expeditors benefits from deep industry expertise and a comprehensive service suite.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
EXPD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$161.32
52W Range Position
88%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$110.48
+46.0% from the low
52-Week High
$168.52
-4.3% from the high
1 Month
+2.90%
3 Month
+11.55%
YTD
+6.2%
1 Year
+42.7%
3Y CAGR
+11.7%
5Y CAGR
+6.0%
10Y CAGR
+12.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
EXPD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
23.8x
vs 16.2x median
+47% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.1%
vs +2.3% median
+35% above peer median
Net Margin
7.5%
vs 3.7% median
+102% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EXP EXPD Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. | $21.5B | 23.8x | +3.1% | 7.5% | Hold | -6.0% |
CHR CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | $21.9B | 30.0x | +1.4% | 3.7% | Hold | +3.9% |
FWR FWRD Forward Air Corporation | $431M | — | +7.3% | -3.7% | Hold | +28.5% |
GXO GXO GXO Logistics, Inc. | $5.6B | 15.9x | +6.8% | 0.9% | Buy | +46.5% |
UPS UPS United Parcel Service, Inc. | $89.2B | 14.8x | +1.1% | 5.9% | Hold | +9.7% |
FDX FDX FedEx Corporation | $77.8B | 16.4x | +2.3% | 4.9% | Buy | +5.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
EXPD Dividend and Capital Return
EXPD returns capital mainly through $667M/year in buybacks (3.1% buyback yield), with a modest 0.94% dividend — combining for 4.1% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 31 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.1%
Dividend Yield
0.94%
Payout Ratio
25.5%
How EXPD Splits Its Return
Div 0.94%
Buyback 3.1%
Dividend 0.94%Buybacks 3.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.52
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
31Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.7%
5Y Div CAGR
8.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$667M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
133M
At 3.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.81 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.54 | +5.5% | 3.3% | 4.3% |
| 2024 | $1.46 | +5.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% |
| 2023 | $1.38 | +3.0% | 7.3% | 8.3% |
| 2022 | $1.34 | +15.5% | 9.3% | 10.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsEXPD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 4 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 20 rate it Hold, and 9 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $152, implying -6.0% from the current price of $161. The bear case scenario is $127 and the bull case is $266.
02What is the EXPD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for EXPD is $152 based on 33 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $175 (+8.5% from today), and the low-end target is $135 (-16.3%). The base case model target is $202.
03Is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) stock overvalued in 2026?
EXPD trades at 23.8x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fair versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for EXPD in 2026 are: (1) Bear case price target — The scenario-based model projects a bear case price target of $141 for EXPD, significantly below the base and bull cases, reflecting downside risks. (2) Medium-term risks unresolved — Expeditors International's Q1 2026 results showed near-term improvement but failed to address medium-term risks, contributing to a Hold rating. (3) Market sentiment uncertainty — Analyst opinions and headlines suggest mixed sentiment around EXPD, with some recommending a Hold due to unresolved risks. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates EXPD will report consensus revenue of $11.5B (+3.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.82 (+9.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $11.8B in revenue.
06When does Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) report its next earnings?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $1.64 and revenue of $2.8B. Over recent quarters, EXPD has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. generate?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) generated $921M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.2%. EXPD returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.9% yield) and share repurchases ($667M TTM).