Upside case
Bull case
$213+113.7%
UPS would need investors to value it at roughly 30x earnings — about 16x more generous than today's 14x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
45
analysts
20 bullish · 4 bearish · 45 covering UPS
Strong Buy
2
Buy
18
Hold
21
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$115
+17.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$88 – $213
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
45
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
13.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $84.9B
UPS price targets
Three scenarios for where UPS stock could go
Current
~$100
Confidence
65 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $100
Bear
$88
Base
$106
Bull
$213
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$106+5.8%
This is close to how the market is already pricing UPS — at roughly 15x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$88-11.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push UPS down roughly 11% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
United Parcel Service, Inc.
UPS · NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsDecember year-end
UPS is a global logistics and package delivery company that transports letters, documents, and packages worldwide through its integrated air and ground networks. It generates revenue primarily from its U.S. Domestic Package segment (~60% of revenue) and International Package segment (~20%), with the remainder from its Supply Chain Solutions division. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive integrated global network—including its own aircraft fleet and ground vehicles—which creates significant scale and efficiency advantages that are difficult for competitors to replicate.
Market Cap
$84.9B
Revenue TTM
$88.3B
Net Income TTM
$5.2B
Net Margin
5.9%
UPS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.55/$1.56
Revenue
$21.2B/$20.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.74/$1.29
Revenue
$21.4B/$20.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.38/$2.20
Revenue
$24.5B/$24.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.07/$1.02
Revenue
$21.2B/$21.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.55/$1.56 | -0.6% | $21.2B/$20.9B | +1.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.74/$1.29 | +34.9% | $21.4B/$20.8B | +2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.38/$2.20 | +8.2% | $24.5B/$24.0B | +2.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.07/$1.02 | +4.9% | $21.2B/$21.0B | +1.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$88.3B
+0.0% YoY
FY2
$88.5B
+0.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.75
+9.3% YoY
FY2
$7.07
+4.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.5B
FCF Margin: 5.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
UPS beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
UPS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $64.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
U.S. Domestic Package
68.5%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
68.5%
-26.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
U.S. Domestic Package is the largest disclosed segment at 68.5% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 68.5%, down 26.8% YoY.
UPS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $213 — implies +97.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
97.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
UPS
15.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
40% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
UPS
15.2x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
41% discount
vs UPS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
15.2x
vs
5Y Average
16.3x
7% discount
Forward PE
13.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
-27%
Industrials
20.7x
-33%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
15.2x
S&P 500
25.2x
-40%
Industrials
25.9x
-41%
5Y Avg
16.3x
-7%
PEG Ratio
0.45x
S&P 500
1.74x
-74%
Industrials
1.64x
-72%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-40%
Industrials
13.7x
-33%
5Y Avg
11.0x
-17%
Price/FCF
17.8x
S&P 500
21.3x
-16%
Industrials
21.0x
-15%
5Y Avg
19.1x
-7%
Price/Sales
1.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-69%
Industrials
1.6x
-40%
5Y Avg
1.4x
-32%
Dividend Yield
6.36%
S&P 500
1.87%
+240%
Industrials
1.25%
+410%
5Y Avg
4.12%
+54%
| Metric | UPS | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg UPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 13.8x | 19.1x-27% | 20.7x-33% | — |
| Trailing PE | 15.2x | 25.2x-40% | 25.9x-41% | 16.3x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.45x | 1.74x-74% | 1.64x-72% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.1x | 15.2x-40% | 13.7x-33% | 11.0x-17% |
| Price/FCF | 17.8x | 21.3x-16% | 21.0x-15% | 19.1x |
| Price/Sales | 1.0x | 3.1x-69% | 1.6x-40% | 1.4x-32% |
| Dividend Yield | 6.36% | 1.87% | 1.25% | 4.12% |
UPS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolUPS Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
UPS 16.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 7.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$88.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-2.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
18.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
8.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
5.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.18
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
5.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
16.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$5.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$26.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.8× FCF
~5.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
33.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
7.5%
Dividend
6.4%
Buyback
1.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.0B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$6.35
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
96.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
850M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageUPS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Economic Downturns
UPS’s revenue and operations are highly sensitive to global and local economic conditions, including industrial production, inflation, unemployment, consumer spending, and retail activity. A prolonged downturn could reduce parcel volumes and freight demand, compressing margins. The company’s exposure to geopolitical tensions and conflicts further amplifies this risk.
High Risk
Labor Relations
UPS relies on a large workforce under union contracts, notably with the Teamsters. Strikes or renegotiations can halt operations, disrupt supply chains, and increase labor costs. Such disruptions have historically led to significant revenue losses and operational setbacks.
High Risk
Revenue & Profitability
Following the reduction of its relationship with Amazon, UPS has seen declining revenues and heightened margin pressure from rising labor, sustainability, and automation costs. The high dividend payout ratio raises concerns about long‑term payout sustainability if revenue growth stalls. These factors could erode earnings and shareholder returns.
High Risk
Competitive Threats
E-commerce giants like Amazon are expanding in‑house logistics, directly competing with UPS’s parcel delivery services. Traditional integrators such as FedEx and DHL, along with regional carriers, intensify price and service competition. New last‑mile innovators also threaten market share.
Medium
Environmental Regulations
Compliance with climate‑change regulations, including greenhouse gas emissions reporting, can increase operating costs and expose UPS to new taxes or fees. Recent settlements for hazardous waste violations have already incurred fines and required costly compliance measures.
Medium
Fuel & Energy Costs
UPS’s operational costs are directly tied to petroleum prices, especially jet fuel and diesel. While hedging and fuel surcharges mitigate exposure, market volatility can still erode margins if hedges are ineffective.
Medium
Supply Chain Disruptions
UPS’s extensive global network involves numerous partners, raising the likelihood of disruptions from geopolitical events, natural disasters, or partner failures. Such disruptions can delay deliveries, increase costs, and damage customer relationships.
Medium
Cybersecurity
UPS faces heightened operational security requirements and the risk of cyberattacks that could compromise data, disrupt operations, and expose the company to regulatory penalties.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why UPS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Profitability-Focused "Better, Not Bigger" Strategy
UPS is prioritizing economic profitability over volume growth, focusing on higher-yielding segments such as healthcare, B2B, SMBs, and international markets. This shift is part of a broader strategy to use capital more efficiently and improve margins. The company is actively trimming lower-margin activities to concentrate on more profitable business lines.
MNX Acquisition Expands Healthcare Footprint
UPS recently acquired MNX Global Logistics, a move that strengthens its presence in the healthcare logistics sector. The acquisition is expected to enhance UPS's ability to serve high-value healthcare clients and capture higher-margin shipments. It aligns with the company's focus on higher-yielding segments.
Network Reconfiguration Yields Cost Savings
UPS is undertaking significant network reconfigurations under its "efficiency reimagined" initiatives, targeting substantial cost savings. The plan includes workforce reductions, building closures, and the deployment of automation and AI-driven route optimization. These measures aim to lower operating expenses and improve overall efficiency.
Domestic Operating Profit Growth Resurgent
Despite revenue contraction, UPS has demonstrated expanding operating margins and is expected to see domestic operating profit return to growth. The leaner cost structure and increased automation are key drivers behind this improvement. This domestic performance supports the company's profitability trajectory.
Dividend Yield Attracts Income Investors
UPS offers a substantial dividend yield, making it appealing to income-focused investors. The company plans to return significant capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. This commitment to shareholder returns adds an attractive income component to the investment thesis.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
UPS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$99.88
52W Range Position
44%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$82.00
+21.8% from the low
52-Week High
$122.41
-18.4% from the high
1 Month
+0.95%
3 Month
-15.86%
YTD
-2.9%
1 Year
+2.6%
3Y CAGR
-17.7%
5Y CAGR
-14.5%
10Y CAGR
-0.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
UPS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
13.8x
vs 37.3x median
-63% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+0.0%
vs +3.3% median
-100% below peer median
Net Margin
5.9%
vs 7.8% median
-24% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UPS UPS United Parcel Service, Inc. | $84.9B | 13.8x | +0.0% | 5.9% | Hold | +17.5% |
FDX FDX FedEx Corporation | $88.7B | 18.3x | +1.3% | 4.9% | Buy | +0.4% |
XPO XPO XPO Logistics, Inc. | $24.8B | 44.1x | +3.3% | 4.2% | Buy | +0.7% |
ODF ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | $41.8B | 37.3x | +0.3% | 18.6% | Hold | +6.2% |
SAI SAIA Saia, Inc. | $12.0B | 39.8x | +4.5% | 7.8% | Buy | +0.1% |
AMZ AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | $2.96T | 35.1x | +10.0% | 12.2% | Buy | +12.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
UPS Dividend and Capital Return
UPS returns 7.5% total yield, led by a 6.36% dividend, raised 16 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 1.2%.
Dividend At RiskFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
7.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.2%
Dividend Yield
6.36%
Payout Ratio
96.9%
How UPS Splits Its Return
Div 6.36%
Dividend 6.36%Buybacks 1.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$6.35
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
16Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.6%
5Y Div CAGR
10.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.0B
Estimated Shares Retired
10M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
850M
At 1.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.64 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $6.56 | +0.6% | 1.2% | 7.6% |
| 2024 | $6.52 | +0.6% | 0.5% | 5.5% |
| 2023 | $6.48 | +6.6% | 1.7% | 5.6% |
| 2022 | $6.08 | +49.0% | 2.3% | 5.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsUPS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 45 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 21 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $115, implying +17.5% from the current price of $100. The bear case scenario is $88 and the bull case is $213.
02What is the UPS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for UPS is $115 based on 45 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $128 (+28.2% from today), and the low-end target is $85 (-14.9%). The base case model target is $106.
03Is United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) stock overvalued in 2026?
UPS trades at 13.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for UPS in 2026 are: (1) Economic Downturns — UPS’s revenue and operations are highly sensitive to global and local economic conditions, including industrial production, inflation, unemployment, consumer spending, and retail activity. (2) Labor Relations — UPS relies on a large workforce under union contracts, notably with the Teamsters. (3) Revenue & Profitability — Following the reduction of its relationship with Amazon, UPS has seen declining revenues and heightened margin pressure from rising labor, sustainability, and automation costs. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is United Parcel Service, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates UPS will report consensus revenue of $88.3B (+0.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.75 (+9.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $88.5B in revenue.
06When does United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for UPS is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does United Parcel Service, Inc. generate?
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) generated $4.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 5.1%. UPS returns capital to shareholders through dividends (6.4% yield) and share repurchases ($1.0B TTM).