Upside case
Bull case
$52+190.1%
CPNG would need investors to value it at roughly 881x earnings — about 577x more generous than today's 304x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Coupang, Inc. (CPNG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
16
analysts
15 bullish · 0 bearish · 16 covering CPNG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
1
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$27
+48.7% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $52
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
16
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
303.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $32.3B
CPNG price targets
Three scenarios for where CPNG stock could go
Current
~$18
Confidence
55 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $18
Base
$15
Bull
$52
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$15-15.7%
At 256x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Coupang, Inc.
CPNG · NYSEConsumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailDecember year-end
Coupang is a South Korean e-commerce giant that operates a massive online marketplace and delivery network. It makes money primarily through product sales — generating over 90% of revenue from its core e-commerce segment — with additional income from its growing initiatives like video streaming and food delivery. The company's key advantage is its proprietary "Rocket Delivery" logistics network that enables same-day or next-day delivery across South Korea, creating a formidable operational moat.
Market Cap
$32.3B
Revenue TTM
$28.7B
Net Income TTM
-$165M
Net Margin
-0.6%
CPNG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+82.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.06/$0.05
Revenue
$7.9B/$8.0B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.02/$0.07
Revenue
$8.5B/$8.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.05/$0.04
Revenue
$9.3B/$9.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.01/$0.03
Revenue
$8.8B/$9.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.06/$0.05 | +12.2% | $7.9B/$8.0B | -1.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.02/$0.07 | -69.7% | $8.5B/$8.4B | +1.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.05/$0.04 | +36.5% | $9.3B/$9.1B | +1.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.01/$0.03 | -134.5% | $8.8B/$9.1B | -2.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$34.3B
+19.8% YoY
FY2
$40.1B
+16.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.02
+117.4% YoY
FY2
$0.19
+1101.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$279M
FCF Margin: 1.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
CPNG beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
CPNG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $34.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
76.2%
+10.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 76.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 10.2% YoY.
CPNG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $11 — implies -47.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
47.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CPNG
162.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+545% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
CPNG
162.6x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+730% premium
vs CPNG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
162.6x
vs
5Y Average
21.6x
+653% premium
Forward PE
303.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
+1493%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
+1899%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
162.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
+545%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+730%
5Y Avg
21.6x
+653%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
44.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
+194%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
+295%
5Y Avg
47.0x
-5%
Price/FCF
61.9x
S&P 500
21.3x
+190%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
+313%
5Y Avg
46.8x
+32%
Price/Sales
0.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-70%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+32%
5Y Avg
1.5x
-36%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | CPNG | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg CPNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 303.7x | 19.1x+1493% | 15.2x+1899% | — |
| Trailing PE | 162.6x | 25.2x+545% | 19.6x+730% | 21.6x+653% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.95x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 44.9x | 15.3x+194% | 11.4x+295% | 47.0x |
| Price/FCF | 61.9x | 21.3x+190% | 15.0x+313% | 46.8x+32% |
| Price/Sales | 0.9x | 3.1x-70% | 0.7x+32% | 1.5x-36% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.15% | — |
CPNG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCPNG Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
CPNG 14.5% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$28.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-7.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
12.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
0.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-0.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.09
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$279M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
1.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
14.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-0.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$6.3B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-3.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.8%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$243M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.8B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCPNG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Geographic Concentration
Coupang derives the majority of its revenue from South Korea, exposing it to local economic swings. Expansion into international markets is ongoing but has yet to diversify the revenue base significantly. A downturn in the Korean economy could materially impact earnings.
High Risk
Capital-Intensive Logistics
Building and maintaining a nationwide logistics network requires substantial capital outlays, limiting margin expansion. The company’s high fixed costs can erode profitability if sales growth stalls. Continued investment is necessary to sustain delivery speed and customer satisfaction.
High Risk
Regulatory and Legal Issues
Coupang faces ongoing investigations and compliance costs, including a personal data leak that triggered fines and corrective orders from South Korean regulators. Regulatory headwinds can pressure results and the share price. Legal exposure may increase operational costs and reputational risk.
High Risk
Market Volatility and Cyclicality
Coinbase’s revenue is tied to trading volume and crypto asset prices, which are highly cyclical. Bear markets can sharply reduce trading activity, impacting revenue and profitability. Macroeconomic factors such as high interest rates can dampen market speculation.
High Risk
Regulatory Uncertainty
The evolving regulatory landscape poses a significant risk; adverse changes or non‑compliance could damage Coinbase’s brand, reputation, and financial condition. International operations add complexity and potential legal costs. Regulatory uncertainty can affect user trust and market access.
High Risk
Cybersecurity Risks
As a digital platform, Coinbase is vulnerable to cyberattacks and security breaches. A significant breach could erode customer trust, trigger regulatory scrutiny, and result in financial losses. Robust security measures are essential to protect assets and maintain market confidence.
Medium
Diversification into New Verticals
Coupang’s expansion into food delivery, fintech, streaming, and advertising pits it against established incumbents. Execution risk is high because each vertical has distinct economics and customer expectations. Success depends on effective integration and competitive differentiation.
Lower
General Market Fluctuations
Broad market and industry fluctuations, along with macroeconomic conditions, can negatively impact Coinbase’s stock price. While not directly tied to crypto performance, these factors can influence investor sentiment and valuation.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CPNG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Revenue Growth YoY
Coupang reported a 10.9% revenue growth compared to the same quarter last year, underscoring strong demand for its services. This upward trajectory signals continued momentum in its core business.
Large Untapped TAM
South Korea’s retail total addressable market (TAM) is only about 10% penetrated by Coupang, leaving a vast growth runway. The company can capture additional market share as it expands its footprint.
Successful Taiwan Expansion
Coupang’s entry into Taiwan has shown rapid growth and strong product‑market fit, demonstrating its ability to scale into new geographies. The expansion provides a new revenue stream outside its domestic market.
Proprietary Logistics Infrastructure
Coupang operates its own delivery fleet and fulfillment centers, giving it flexibility and control over operations. This infrastructure advantage supports efficient order fulfillment and customer satisfaction.
Margin Expansion via Ads & Scale
Advertising revenue is currently under‑monetized, and procurement efficiencies are expected to improve as scale increases. These factors could drive long‑term margin expansion for the company.
AI Factory Partnership with NVIDIA
Coupang’s collaboration with NVIDIA for its AI factory and self‑service AI ecosystem highlights significant investment in future technologies. This partnership positions the company at the forefront of AI‑driven logistics and customer experience.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CPNG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$17.89
52W Range Position
7%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$16.74
+6.9% from the low
52-Week High
$34.08
-47.5% from the high
1 Month
-8.30%
3 Month
+0.96%
YTD
-23.4%
1 Year
-25.5%
3Y CAGR
+0.2%
5Y CAGR
-15.0%
10Y CAGR
-9.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CPNG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
303.7x
vs 25.4x median
+1094% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+19.8%
vs +10.0% median
+98% above peer median
Net Margin
-0.6%
vs 6.9% median
-108% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CPN CPNG Coupang, Inc. | $32.3B | 303.7x | +19.8% | -0.6% | Buy | +48.7% |
AMZ AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | $2.96T | 35.3x | +10.0% | 12.2% | Buy | +11.6% |
SE SE Sea Limited | $54.4B | 25.4x | +31.0% | 6.8% | Buy | +64.0% |
JD JD JD.com, Inc. | $47.2B | 1.5x | +7.6% | 2.5% | Buy | +7.1% |
MEL MELI MercadoLibre, Inc. | $93.3B | 38.6x | +29.3% | 6.9% | Buy | +31.4% |
BAB BABA Alibaba Group Holding Limited | $341.6B | 4.1x | +3.6% | 12.2% | Buy | +37.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CPNG Dividend and Capital Return
CPNG returns 0.6% annually — null% through dividends and 0.6% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.6%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$243M
Estimated Shares Retired
14M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.8B
At 0.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsCPNG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Coupang, Inc. (CPNG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Coupang, Inc. (CPNG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 16 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $27, implying +48.7% from the current price of $18.
02What is the CPNG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CPNG is $27 based on 16 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $31 (+73.3% from today), and the low-end target is $22 (+23.0%). The base case model target is $15.
03Is Coupang, Inc. (CPNG) stock overvalued in 2026?
CPNG trades at 303.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Coupang, Inc. (CPNG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CPNG in 2026 are: (1) Geographic Concentration — Coupang derives the majority of its revenue from South Korea, exposing it to local economic swings. (2) Capital-Intensive Logistics — Building and maintaining a nationwide logistics network requires substantial capital outlays, limiting margin expansion. (3) Regulatory and Legal Issues — Coupang faces ongoing investigations and compliance costs, including a personal data leak that triggered fines and corrective orders from South Korean regulators. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Coupang, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CPNG will report consensus revenue of $34.3B (+19.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.02 (+117.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $40.1B in revenue.
06When does Coupang, Inc. (CPNG) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for CPNG is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Coupang, Inc. generate?
Coupang, Inc. (CPNG) generated $279M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1.0%. CPNG returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($243M TTM).