Upside case
Bull case
$444+1395.0%
JD would need investors to value it at roughly 21x earnings — about 20x more generous than today's 1x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
JD.com, Inc. (JD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
45
analysts
32 bullish · 1 bearish · 45 covering JD
Strong Buy
0
Buy
32
Hold
12
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$33
+10.7% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $444
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
45
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
1.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $45.6B
JD price targets
Three scenarios for where JD stock could go
Current
~$30
Confidence
73 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $30
Base
$206
Bull
$444
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$206+593.3%
At 10x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
JD.com, Inc.
JD · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailDecember year-end
JD.com is China's largest direct online retailer that operates an integrated supply chain and logistics network. It generates revenue primarily from direct online retail sales of electronics and general merchandise (~90% of revenue), complemented by marketplace commissions, logistics services, and advertising. Its key competitive advantage is its proprietary nationwide logistics infrastructure—including warehouses, delivery stations, and last-mile delivery—which enables fast, reliable fulfillment across China.
Market Cap
$45.6B
Revenue TTM
$1.30T
Net Income TTM
$32.2B
Net Margin
2.5%
JD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
80%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+20.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.16/$1.05
Revenue
$41.4B/$40.3B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.69/$0.50
Revenue
$49.7B/$46.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.52/$0.46
Revenue
$42.0B/$49.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.08/$0.07
Revenue
$50.4B/$50.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.16/$1.05 | +10.5% | $41.4B/$40.3B | +2.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.69/$0.50 | +38.0% | $49.7B/$46.7B | +6.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.52/$0.46 | +13.0% | $42.0B/$49.7B | -15.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.08/$0.07 | +14.3% | $50.4B/$50.3B | +0.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.40T
+7.6% YoY
FY2
$1.51T
+7.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$22.21
+2.4% YoY
FY2
$27.32
+23.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$9.1B
FCF Margin: 0.7%
Next Earnings
May 12, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.55
Expected Revenue
$45.1B
JD beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
JD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $1.16T
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Electronics And Home Appliance Products
48.8%
+4.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Electronics And Home Appliance Products is the largest disclosed segment at 48.8% of FY 2024 revenue, up 4.9% YoY.
JD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $582 — implies +1842.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
1842.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
JD
7.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
70% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
JD
7.5x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
61% discount
vs JD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
7.5x
vs
5Y Average
3.7x
+105% premium
Forward PE
1.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
-93%
Consumer Cyclical
15.1x
-91%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
7.5x
S&P 500
25.1x
-70%
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
-61%
5Y Avg
3.7x
+105%
PEG Ratio
0.28x
S&P 500
1.72x
-84%
Consumer Cyclical
0.91x
-69%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
6.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
-59%
Consumer Cyclical
11.3x
-44%
5Y Avg
3.2x
+94%
Price/FCF
7.0x
S&P 500
21.1x
-67%
Consumer Cyclical
14.6x
-52%
5Y Avg
2.7x
+163%
Price/Sales
0.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-91%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
-62%
5Y Avg
0.1x
+185%
Dividend Yield
2.66%
S&P 500
1.87%
+42%
Consumer Cyclical
2.23%
+19%
5Y Avg
14.96%
-82%
| Metric | JD | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg JD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 1.4x | 19.1x-93% | 15.1x-91% | — |
| Trailing PE | 7.5x | 25.1x-70% | 19.3x-61% | 3.7x+105% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.28x | 1.72x-84% | 0.91x-69% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.3x | 15.2x-59% | 11.3x-44% | 3.2x+94% |
| Price/FCF | 7.0x | 21.1x-67% | 14.6x-52% | 2.7x+163% |
| Price/Sales | 0.3x | 3.1x-91% | 0.7x-62% | 0.1x+185% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.66% | 1.87% | 2.23% | 14.96% |
JD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolJD Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
JD returns 11.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.30T
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+16.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
12.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
1.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$21.70
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$9.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
0.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$108.3B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$18.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
10.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
11.0%
Dividend
2.7%
Buyback
8.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$25.9B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5.37
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
20.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.5B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageJD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Intensified Competition
JD.com faces significant competition from rivals such as Pinduoduo and Douyin, which are gaining market share. This competition can lead to price wars, potentially eroding profit margins.
High Risk
Regulatory and Political Risks
As a Chinese company, JD.com is subject to the Chinese government’s policies and regulations, which can change and impact industries. Investors are generally pessimistic about Chinese companies due to potential crackdowns on tech sectors and data privacy concerns.
Medium
Geopolitical Tensions
Ongoing tensions between China and countries like the United States can result in trade disputes, tariffs, and sanctions that directly affect JD.com’s profitability and operations.
Medium
Logistics and Expansion Costs
While JD.com’s extensive logistics network is a strength, ongoing investments in logistics, automation, and new businesses like food delivery can strain margins and cash flow in the short term.
Medium
Auditor Independence and Delisting Risk
JD.com has been identified by the SEC under the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act due to its auditor’s working papers not being fully inspectable by the PCAOB. Delisting requires three consecutive years of such identification, posing a potential risk.
Medium
Profitability of New Ventures
The food delivery segment has been a weak spot with challenged profitability trends, potentially dragging on overall performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why JD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Deep Undervaluation
JD.com trades at a DCF‑implied intrinsic value of $62.40 per share versus a recent price of $28.46, indicating a potential undervaluation of over 54%. Its P/E of 13.7x is well below the estimated fair ratio of 27.6x, underscoring a margin of safety supported by a strong balance sheet and net cash position.
Robust Logistics Moat
The company’s proprietary fulfillment and last‑mile delivery network gives it a competitive edge, enabling efficient and reliable service. Ongoing investments in logistics automation and AI further enhance operational efficiency and scalability.
Accelerating User Growth
JD.com’s omnichannel strategy is driving higher engagement, with quarterly active customers growing significantly and shopping frequency on the rise. This momentum is expected to lift revenue and increase customer lifetime value.
Active Capital Returns
Management has signaled confidence through a new annual dividend and aggressive share buyback program, returning cash to shareholders even amid market volatility.
Strategic Diversification
Investments in food delivery, cloud computing, and AI solutions extend JD’s logistics model into high‑engagement consumer occasions, creating new revenue streams and positioning the company for long‑term growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
JD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$29.68
52W Range Position
38%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$24.51
+21.1% from the low
52-Week High
$38.08
-22.1% from the high
1 Month
+4.10%
3 Month
+8.64%
YTD
+0.5%
1 Year
-12.9%
3Y CAGR
-6.1%
5Y CAGR
-17.0%
10Y CAGR
+1.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
JD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
1.4x
vs 1.2x median
+20% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.6%
vs +5.1% median
+49% above peer median
Net Margin
2.5%
vs 12.2% median
-80% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JD JD JD.com, Inc. | $45.6B | 1.4x | +7.6% | 2.5% | Buy | +10.7% |
BAB BABA Alibaba Group Holding Limited | $319.3B | 3.9x | +3.6% | 12.2% | Buy | +46.9% |
PDD PDD PDD Holdings Inc. | $143.1B | 1.2x | +21.3% | 24.4% | Buy | +46.8% |
VIP VIPS Vipshop Holdings Limited | $7.6B | 0.8x | -0.4% | 6.5% | Buy | +54.4% |
BZU BZUN Baozun Inc. | $164M | 0.9x | +5.1% | -2.1% | Buy | +95.3% |
AMZ AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | $2.94T | 35.1x | +10.0% | 12.2% | Buy | +12.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
JD Dividend and Capital Return
JD returns capital mainly through $25.9B/year in buybacks (8.3% buyback yield), with a modest 2.66% dividend — combining for 11.0% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
11.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
8.3%
Dividend Yield
2.66%
Payout Ratio
20.0%
How JD Splits Its Return
Div 2.66%
Buyback 8.3%
Dividend 2.66%Buybacks 8.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.37
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
-7.4%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
1 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$25.9B
Estimated Shares Retired
873M
Approx. Share Reduction
56.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.5B
At 56.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.00 | +31.6% | — | — |
| 2024 | $0.76 | +22.6% | 48.6% | 64.1% |
| 2023 | $0.62 | -50.8% | 5.5% | 20.2% |
| 2022 | $1.26 | — | 2.0% | 16.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsJD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is JD.com, Inc. (JD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
JD.com, Inc. (JD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 45 analysts covering the stock, 32 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $33, implying +10.7% from the current price of $30.
02What is the JD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for JD is $33 based on 45 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $37 (+24.7% from today), and the low-end target is $22 (-25.9%). The base case model target is $206.
03Is JD.com, Inc. (JD) stock overvalued in 2026?
JD trades at 1.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for JD.com, Inc. (JD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for JD in 2026 are: (1) Intensified Competition — JD. (2) Regulatory and Political Risks — As a Chinese company, JD. (3) Geopolitical Tensions — Ongoing tensions between China and countries like the United States can result in trade disputes, tariffs, and sanctions that directly affect JD. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is JD.com, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates JD will report consensus revenue of $1.40T (+7.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $22.21 (+2.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.51T in revenue.
06When does JD.com, Inc. (JD) report its next earnings?
JD.com, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-12. Consensus expects EPS of $0.55 and revenue of $45.1B. Over recent quarters, JD has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does JD.com, Inc. generate?
JD.com, Inc. (JD) generated $9.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 0.7%. JD returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.7% yield) and share repurchases ($25.9B TTM).