Upside case
Bull case
$470+1603.2%
JD would need investors to value it at roughly 21x earnings — about 20x more generous than today's 1x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
JD.com, Inc. (JD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
45
analysts
32 bullish · 1 bearish · 45 covering JD
Strong Buy
0
Buy
32
Hold
12
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$35
+27.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$225 – $470
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
45
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
1.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $37.8B
JD price targets
Three scenarios for where JD stock could go
Current
~$28
Confidence
68 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $28
Bear
$225
Base
$356
Bull
$470
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$356+1192.6%
At 16x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$225+714.4%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push JD down roughly 714% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
JD.com, Inc.
JD · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailDecember year-end
JD.com is China's largest direct online retailer that operates an integrated supply chain and logistics network. It generates revenue primarily from direct online retail sales of electronics and general merchandise (~90% of revenue), complemented by marketplace commissions, logistics services, and advertising. Its key competitive advantage is its proprietary nationwide logistics infrastructure—including warehouses, delivery stations, and last-mile delivery—which enables fast, reliable fulfillment across China.
Market Cap
$37.8B
Revenue TTM
$1.31T
Net Income TTM
$19.6B
Net Margin
1.5%
JD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
80%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+22.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.69/$0.50
Revenue
$49.7B/$46.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.52/$0.46
Revenue
$42.0B/$49.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.08/$0.07
Revenue
$50.4B/$50.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.74/$0.57
Revenue
$45.8B/$45.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.69/$0.50 | +38.0% | $49.7B/$46.7B | +6.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.52/$0.46 | +13.0% | $42.0B/$49.7B | -15.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.08/$0.07 | +14.3% | $50.4B/$50.3B | +0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.74/$0.57 | +29.8% | $45.8B/$45.2B | +1.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.43T
+9.5% YoY
FY2
$1.52T
+5.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$19.63
+48.9% YoY
FY2
$23.83
+21.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.8B
FCF Margin: 0.4%
Next Earnings
August 13, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.84
Expected Revenue
$51.2B
JD beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
JD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $1.31T
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Electronics And Home Appliance Products
46.2%
+7.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Electronics And Home Appliance Products is the largest disclosed segment at 46.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 7.1% YoY.
JD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $75 — implies +172.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
172.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
JD
14.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
41% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
JD
14.5x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
32% discount
vs JD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
14.5x
vs
5Y Average
3.5x
+308% premium
Forward PE
1.2x
S&P 500
18.8x
-94%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
-93%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
14.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
-41%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
-32%
5Y Avg
3.5x
+308%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
18.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
+22%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+52%
5Y Avg
2.4x
+690%
Price/FCF
53.2x
S&P 500
20.7x
+157%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+242%
5Y Avg
3.7x
+1351%
Price/Sales
0.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-94%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
-72%
5Y Avg
0.1x
+205%
Dividend Yield
3.74%
S&P 500
1.91%
+95%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
+72%
5Y Avg
14.96%
-75%
| Metric | JD | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg JD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 1.2x | 18.8x-94% | 16.3x-93% | — |
| Trailing PE | 14.5x | 24.4x-41% | 21.2x-32% | 3.5x+308% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.6x | 15.2x+22% | 12.2x+52% | 2.4x+690% |
| Price/FCF | 53.2x | 20.7x+157% | 15.6x+242% | 3.7x+1351% |
| Price/Sales | 0.2x | 3.1x-94% | 0.7x-72% | 0.1x+205% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.74% | 1.91% | 2.17% | 14.96% |
JD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolJD Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
JD returns 12.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.31T
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+13.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
9.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
0.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
1.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$13.18
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.8B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
0.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
0.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$149.7B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$42.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
6.5%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (0.8%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
12.1%
Dividend
3.7%
Buyback
8.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$21.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$6.97
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
52.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.4B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageJD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Liquidity Crisis
JD.com may be facing a liquidity crisis similar to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, driven by rapid user dissatisfaction and withdrawals.
High Risk
Stock Depreciation
The company's stock price has depreciated approximately by 26.79% since coverage, reflecting significant market concerns.
Medium
Operational Headwinds
JD currently reflects more of a bearish case due to operational headwinds and margin pressures.
Medium
Limited Upside
Low beta of 0.38 suggests limited upside participation in bull markets.
Lower
User Dissatisfaction
Rapid user dissatisfaction could further exacerbate financial and operational challenges.
Lower
Market Competition
Expansion into food delivery and other sectors increases exposure to competitive pressures.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why JD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Undervaluation and strong fundamentals
Despite recent stock depreciation, JD's strong fundamentals and undervaluation support the bullish thesis.
Strategic shift to high-margin electronics
JD's focus on high-margin electronics is expected to drive profitability and growth.
Government rebate tailwinds
Authorities' rebate programs are providing tailwinds for JD's business performance.
Sturdy capital returns
JD's commitment to robust capital returns enhances investor confidence.
Leading e-commerce platform
JD's comprehensive online shopping mall offers a wide range of products, ensuring strong market positioning.
Exclusive and limited edition products
JD Sports' exclusive designs and limited editions from top brands like Nike and adidas drive customer demand.
Strong brand partnerships
Collaborations with top brands such as Nike, Jordan, and adidas bolster JD's product offerings and appeal.
Omnichannel retail presence
JD's combination of online and offline retail, including local stores and app-based shopping, enhances customer reach.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
JD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$27.57
52W Range Position
25%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$24.51
+12.5% from the low
52-Week High
$36.86
-25.2% from the high
1 Month
-12.75%
3 Month
-2.23%
YTD
-6.6%
1 Year
-15.2%
3Y CAGR
-9.5%
5Y CAGR
-17.4%
10Y CAGR
+2.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
JD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
1.2x
vs 1.1x median
+9% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.5%
vs +11.4% median
-17% below peer median
Net Margin
1.5%
vs 10.1% median
-85% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JD JD JD.com, Inc. | $37.8B | 1.2x | +9.5% | 1.5% | Buy | +27.9% |
BAB BABA Alibaba Group Holding Limited | $249.8B | 2.4x | +11.9% | 10.1% | Buy | +76.7% |
PDD PDD PDD Holdings Inc. | $111.7B | 1.1x | +12.8% | 22.7% | Buy | +48.0% |
VIP VIPS Vipshop Holdings Limited | $6.6B | 0.8x | +7.9% | 6.8% | Buy | +54.2% |
BZU BZUN Baozun Inc. | $162M | 1.0x | +8.9% | -2.4% | Buy | +91.8% |
AMZ AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | $2.63T | 27.8x | +11.4% | 12.2% | Buy | +25.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
JD Dividend and Capital Return
JD returns capital mainly through $21.4B/year in buybacks (8.4% buyback yield), with a modest 3.74% dividend — combining for 12.1% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
12.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
8.4%
Dividend Yield
3.74%
Payout Ratio
52.9%
How JD Splits Its Return
Div 3.74%
Buyback 8.4%
Dividend 3.74%Buybacks 8.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$6.97
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
-7.4%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
1 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$21.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
777M
Approx. Share Reduction
56.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.4B
At 56.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.00 | +31.6% | 50.1% | 74.4% |
| 2024 | $0.76 | +22.6% | 48.6% | 64.1% |
| 2023 | $0.62 | -50.8% | 5.5% | 20.2% |
| 2022 | $1.26 | — | 2.0% | 16.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsJD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is JD.com, Inc. (JD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
JD.com, Inc. (JD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 45 analysts covering the stock, 32 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $35, implying +27.9% from the current price of $28. The bear case scenario is $225 and the bull case is $470.
02What is the JD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for JD is $35 based on 45 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $43 (+56.0% from today), and the low-end target is $22 (-20.2%). The base case model target is $356.
03Is JD.com, Inc. (JD) stock overvalued in 2026?
JD trades at 1.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for JD.com, Inc. (JD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for JD in 2026 are: (1) Liquidity Crisis — JD. (2) Stock Depreciation — The company's stock price has depreciated approximately by 26. (3) Operational Headwinds — JD currently reflects more of a bearish case due to operational headwinds and margin pressures. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is JD.com, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates JD will report consensus revenue of $1.43T (+9.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $19.63 (+48.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.52T in revenue.
06When does JD.com, Inc. (JD) report its next earnings?
JD.com, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-13. Consensus expects EPS of $0.84 and revenue of $51.2B. Over recent quarters, JD has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does JD.com, Inc. generate?
JD.com, Inc. (JD) generated $4.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 0.4%. JD returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.7% yield) and share repurchases ($21.4B TTM).