Upside case
Bull case
$3113+90.4%
MELI would need investors to value it at roughly 79x earnings — about 37x more generous than today's 41x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
33
analysts
24 bullish · 0 bearish · 33 covering MELI
Strong Buy
1
Buy
23
Hold
9
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$2167
+32.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$1488 – $3113
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
33
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
41.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $82.9B
MELI price targets
Three scenarios for where MELI stock could go
Current
~$1635
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $1635
Bear
$1488
Base
$2362
Bull
$3113
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$2362+44.5%
At 60x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$1488-9.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push MELI down roughly 9% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
MercadoLibre, Inc.
MELI · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailDecember year-end
MercadoLibre is the dominant e-commerce and fintech platform across Latin America, operating online marketplaces and financial services. It generates revenue primarily from marketplace commissions and advertising fees (roughly 60%) and fintech services including payments, credit, and digital wallets (roughly 40%). The company's moat comes from its integrated ecosystem—combining e-commerce, payments, logistics, and credit—which creates powerful network effects and high switching costs across Latin America's fragmented markets.
Market Cap
$82.9B
Revenue TTM
$31.8B
Net Income TTM
$1.9B
Net Margin
6.0%
MELI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 0 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$10.31/$11.93
Revenue
$6.8B/$6.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$8.32/$9.12
Revenue
$7.4B/$7.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$11.03/$11.45
Revenue
$8.8B/$8.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$8.23/$8.75
Revenue
$8.8B/$8.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $10.31/$11.93 | -13.6% | $6.8B/$6.7B | +1.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.32/$9.12 | -8.8% | $7.4B/$7.2B | +2.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.03/$11.45 | -3.7% | $8.8B/$8.4B | +3.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $8.23/$8.75 | -5.9% | $8.8B/$8.3B | +6.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$37.8B
+18.8% YoY
FY2
$45.4B
+20.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$44.76
+18.2% YoY
FY2
$58.54
+30.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$10.7B
FCF Margin: 33.7%
Next Earnings
August 5, 2026
Expected EPS
$8.69
Expected Revenue
$9.7B
MELI beat EPS estimates in 0 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
MELI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $28.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Service
87.5%
+35.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Brazil Segment
52.6%
+33.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Service is the largest disclosed segment at 87.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 35.7% YoY.
Brazil Segment is the largest reported region at 52.6%, up 33.3% YoY.
MELI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $5080 — implies +210.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
210.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MELI
41.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+70% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
MELI
41.5x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+96% premium
vs MELI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
41.5x
vs
5Y Average
66.5x
38% discount
Forward PE
41.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
+120%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+153%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
41.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
+70%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+96%
5Y Avg
66.5x
-38%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
24.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
+58%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+97%
5Y Avg
29.8x
-19%
Price/FCF
7.7x
S&P 500
20.7x
-63%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
-51%
5Y Avg
49.1x
-84%
Price/Sales
2.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-7%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+311%
5Y Avg
5.3x
-46%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | MELI | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg MELI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 41.4x | 18.8x+120% | 16.3x+153% | — |
| Trailing PE | 41.5x | 24.4x+70% | 21.2x+96% | 66.5x-38% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.0x | 15.2x+58% | 12.2x+97% | 29.8x-19% |
| Price/FCF | 7.7x | 20.7x-63% | 15.6x-51% | 49.1x-84% |
| Price/Sales | 2.9x | 3.1x | 0.7x+311% | 5.3x-46% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 2.17% | — |
MELI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMELI Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
MELI generates $10.7B in free cash flow at a 33.7% margin — 20.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$31.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+42.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
43.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$37.87
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$10.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
33.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
20.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.7× FCF
~0.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
29.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
51M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMELI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Market volatility sensitivity
MercadoLibre has shown significant drawdowns during systemic shocks, averaging -25% compared to the S&P 500's -16%.
High Risk
Regulatory and compliance risks
The company faces uncertainties and risks as outlined in its SEC filings, including forward-looking statements and risk factors.
Medium
Financial health concerns
Analyses highlight the need to review MercadoLibre's financial health, fundamental metrics, and tech exposure before investing.
Lower
Operational execution risk
Deep dives into the company's performance suggest potential challenges in maintaining growth and operational efficiency.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MELI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Massive underpenetrated market
Latin America's e-commerce sector is projected to expand by 54%, growing from $151 billion in 2023 to $232 billion by 2028, providing a significant growth opportunity for MercadoLibre.
Rapid revenue growth
MercadoLibre has achieved rapid and consistently high revenue growth, with financial figures described as astonishing, capturing notable investor interest.
Expanding moat
The company has an expanding moat, which is a key factor in its investment thesis, as analyzed in institutional ownership and moat analysis.
Strong institutional ownership
Top holder Vanguard Group owns 9% of MercadoLibre, indicating strong institutional confidence in the company's future prospects.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MELI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$1635.15
52W Range Position
12%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$1495.00
+9.4% from the low
52-Week High
$2645.22
-38.2% from the high
1 Month
+3.10%
3 Month
-3.26%
YTD
-17.2%
1 Year
-31.9%
3Y CAGR
+10.9%
5Y CAGR
+2.2%
10Y CAGR
+28.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MELI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
41.4x
vs 26.8x median
+54% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+18.8%
vs +17.1% median
+10% above peer median
Net Margin
6.0%
vs 10.1% median
-40% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MEL MELI MercadoLibre, Inc. | $82.9B | 41.4x | +18.8% | 6.0% | Buy | +32.5% |
AMZ AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | $2.63T | 27.8x | +11.4% | 12.2% | Buy | +25.9% |
BAB BABA Alibaba Group Holding Limited | $249.8B | 2.4x | +11.9% | 10.1% | Buy | +76.7% |
SE SE Sea Limited | $55.9B | 25.9x | +19.8% | 6.9% | Buy | +53.0% |
GRA GRAB Grab Holdings Limited | $14.2B | 33.1x | +17.1% | 10.7% | Buy | +63.9% |
CPN CPNG Coupang, Inc. | $32.3B | — | +19.0% | -0.6% | Buy | +37.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MELI Dividend and Capital Return
MELI does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-3.3%
5Y Div CAGR
6.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1M
Estimated Shares Retired
612
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
51M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $0.60 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.7% |
| 2016 | $0.60 | +45.6% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 2015 | $0.41 | -38.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| 2014 | $0.66 | +16.1% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 2013 | $0.57 | +31.2% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsMELI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 24 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $2167, implying +32.5% from the current price of $1635. The bear case scenario is $1488 and the bull case is $3113.
02What is the MELI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MELI is $2167 based on 33 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $2600 (+59.0% from today), and the low-end target is $1750 (+7.0%). The base case model target is $2362.
03Is MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) stock overvalued in 2026?
MELI trades at 41.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MELI in 2026 are: (1) Market volatility sensitivity — MercadoLibre has shown significant drawdowns during systemic shocks, averaging -25% compared to the S&P 500's -16%. (2) Regulatory and compliance risks — The company faces uncertainties and risks as outlined in its SEC filings, including forward-looking statements and risk factors. (3) Financial health concerns — Analyses highlight the need to review MercadoLibre's financial health, fundamental metrics, and tech exposure before investing. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is MercadoLibre, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MELI will report consensus revenue of $37.8B (+18.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $44.76 (+18.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $45.4B in revenue.
06When does MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) report its next earnings?
MercadoLibre, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-05. Consensus expects EPS of $8.69 and revenue of $9.7B. Over recent quarters, MELI has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does MercadoLibre, Inc. generate?
MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) generated $10.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 33.7%. MELI returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($1M TTM).