Upside case
Bull case
$5711+210.2%
MELI would need investors to value it at roughly 120x earnings — about 81x more generous than today's 39x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
33
analysts
25 bullish · 0 bearish · 33 covering MELI
Strong Buy
1
Buy
24
Hold
8
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$2420
+31.4% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $5711
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
33
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
38.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $93.3B
MELI price targets
Three scenarios for where MELI stock could go
Current
~$1841
Confidence
70 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $1841
Base
$3180
Bull
$5711
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$3180+72.7%
At 67x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
MercadoLibre, Inc.
MELI · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailDecember year-end
MercadoLibre is the dominant e-commerce and fintech platform across Latin America, operating online marketplaces and financial services. It generates revenue primarily from marketplace commissions and advertising fees (roughly 60%) and fintech services including payments, credit, and digital wallets (roughly 40%). The company's moat comes from its integrated ecosystem—combining e-commerce, payments, logistics, and credit—which creates powerful network effects and high switching costs across Latin America's fragmented markets.
Market Cap
$93.3B
Revenue TTM
$28.9B
Net Income TTM
$2.0B
Net Margin
6.9%
MELI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$9.74/$8.27
Revenue
$5.9B/$5.5B
Q3 2025
EPS
$10.31/$11.93
Revenue
$6.8B/$6.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$8.32/$9.12
Revenue
$7.4B/$7.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$11.03/$11.45
Revenue
$8.8B/$8.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $9.74/$8.27 | +17.8% | $5.9B/$5.5B | +8.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $10.31/$11.93 | -13.6% | $6.8B/$6.7B | +1.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.32/$9.12 | -8.8% | $7.4B/$7.2B | +2.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.03/$11.45 | -3.7% | $8.8B/$8.4B | +3.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$37.4B
+29.3% YoY
FY2
$46.3B
+23.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$50.02
+27.0% YoY
FY2
$68.02
+36.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$10.1B
FCF Margin: 35.0%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$9.73
Expected Revenue
$8.3B
MELI beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
MELI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $28.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Service
87.5%
+35.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Brazil Segment
52.6%
+33.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Service is the largest disclosed segment at 87.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 35.7% YoY.
Brazil Segment is the largest reported region at 52.6%, up 33.3% YoY.
MELI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $3948 — implies +113.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
113.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MELI
46.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+85% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
MELI
46.7x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+139% premium
vs MELI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
46.7x
vs
5Y Average
66.5x
30% discount
Forward PE
38.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
+102%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
+154%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
46.7x
S&P 500
25.2x
+85%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+139%
5Y Avg
66.5x
-30%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
26.8x
S&P 500
15.3x
+76%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
+136%
5Y Avg
29.8x
-10%
Price/FCF
8.7x
S&P 500
21.3x
-59%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
-42%
5Y Avg
49.1x
-82%
Price/Sales
3.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+3%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+354%
5Y Avg
5.3x
-39%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | MELI | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg MELI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 38.6x | 19.1x+102% | 15.2x+154% | — |
| Trailing PE | 46.7x | 25.2x+85% | 19.6x+139% | 66.5x-30% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.95x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.8x | 15.3x+76% | 11.4x+136% | 29.8x-10% |
| Price/FCF | 8.7x | 21.3x-59% | 15.0x-42% | 49.1x-82% |
| Price/Sales | 3.2x | 3.1x | 0.7x+354% | 5.3x-39% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.15% | — |
MELI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMELI Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
MELI generates $10.1B in free cash flow at a 35.0% margin — 20.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$28.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+39.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
44.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$39.39
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$10.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
35.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
20.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.8× FCF
~0.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
33.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
51M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMELI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Latin America Macroeconomic Instability
MELI’s core markets—Brazil, Mexico and Argentina—are exposed to economic slowdowns, high inflation, currency volatility and political changes. Argentina’s recent currency collapses can erode profits sharply, while inflation and exchange swings raise consumer spending uncertainty and operational costs.
Medium
Intensifying Competition
The company faces growing rivalry from Amazon, Shopee, Temu and TikTok Shop, leading to price wars, margin compression and the need for aggressive promotions such as free shipping to retain market share.
Medium
Margin Pressure and Profitability Concerns
Operating margins are under pressure from heavy logistics spend, free‑shipping initiatives and rising funding costs for its expanding credit business. MELI prioritizes market share over short‑term profitability, potentially impacting valuation.
Medium
Credit and Fintech Risks
A larger Mercado Crédito loan book requires higher reserves for potential bad debts, especially in downturns. Rising delinquencies could hit the balance sheet and slow ecosystem growth.
Lower
Regulatory and Legal Scrutiny
MELI is subject to evolving e‑commerce, financial services and IP regulations. Recent complaints from Argentine banks alleging abusive conduct on its digital payments platform could increase costs or limit expansion.
Lower
Technological Risks
Reliance on technology exposes MELI to system disruptions, cybersecurity threats and the need for continuous innovation to stay ahead of competitors.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MELI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Dominant Market Position & Accelerating Growth
MercadoLibre is the largest e‑commerce marketplace in Latin America, boasting over 120 million active buyers and 1 million sellers as of late 2025. Revenue grew 45 % YoY in Q4 2025, while e‑commerce sales in Brazil rose 22 % and unique buyers increased 29 % YoY in Q3 2025. The company is projected to sustain moderate double‑digit CAGR through the mid‑2030s, with its emerging‑markets business expected to grow at least 150 %.
Heavy Investment in Logistics & Credit for Margin Recovery
The firm is deliberately sacrificing short‑term margins to invest heavily in logistics, marketing and credit expansion, mirroring Amazon’s early growth playbook. Credit portfolio expanded 83 % YoY and credit revenues grew 69 % in Q3 2025. Analysts anticipate a 50‑basis‑point operating‑margin expansion to 11.7 % by 2026 as these investments mature.
Fintech Expansion in Underserved Latin America
Latin America’s underdeveloped consumer‑finance markets present a significant opportunity for MercadoLibre’s fintech arm. Assets under management reached $19 billion, and the credit portfolio doubled YoY. Rapid expansion of Mercado Pago and Mercado Credito positions the company to capture growing credit demand.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MELI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$1841.14
52W Range Position
24%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$1593.21
+15.6% from the low
52-Week High
$2645.22
-30.4% from the high
1 Month
+7.65%
3 Month
-6.55%
YTD
-6.7%
1 Year
-17.4%
3Y CAGR
+12.8%
5Y CAGR
+4.9%
10Y CAGR
+30.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MELI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
38.6x
vs 34.5x median
+12% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+29.3%
vs +19.8% median
+48% above peer median
Net Margin
6.9%
vs 10.7% median
-35% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MEL MELI MercadoLibre, Inc. | $93.3B | 38.6x | +29.3% | 6.9% | Buy | +31.4% |
AMZ AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | $2.96T | 35.3x | +10.0% | 12.2% | Buy | +11.6% |
BAB BABA Alibaba Group Holding Limited | $341.6B | 4.1x | +3.6% | 12.2% | Buy | +37.3% |
SE SE Sea Limited | $54.4B | 25.4x | +31.0% | 6.8% | Buy | +64.0% |
GRA GRAB Grab Holdings Limited | $15.0B | 34.5x | +27.3% | 10.7% | Buy | +77.7% |
CPN CPNG Coupang, Inc. | $32.3B | 303.7x | +19.8% | -0.6% | Buy | +48.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MELI Dividend and Capital Return
MELI does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1M
Estimated Shares Retired
543
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
51M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $0.60 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.7% |
| 2016 | $0.60 | +45.6% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 2015 | $0.41 | -38.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| 2014 | $0.66 | +16.1% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 2013 | $0.57 | +31.2% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsMELI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 25 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $2420, implying +31.4% from the current price of $1841.
02What is the MELI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MELI is $2420 based on 33 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $2600 (+41.2% from today), and the low-end target is $2050 (+11.3%). The base case model target is $3180.
03Is MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) stock overvalued in 2026?
MELI trades at 38.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MELI in 2026 are: (1) Latin America Macroeconomic Instability — MELI’s core markets—Brazil, Mexico and Argentina—are exposed to economic slowdowns, high inflation, currency volatility and political changes. (2) Intensifying Competition — The company faces growing rivalry from Amazon, Shopee, Temu and TikTok Shop, leading to price wars, margin compression and the need for aggressive promotions such as free shipping to retain market share. (3) Margin Pressure and Profitability Concerns — Operating margins are under pressure from heavy logistics spend, free‑shipping initiatives and rising funding costs for its expanding credit business. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is MercadoLibre, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MELI will report consensus revenue of $37.4B (+29.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $50.02 (+27.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $46.3B in revenue.
06When does MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) report its next earnings?
MercadoLibre, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $9.73 and revenue of $8.3B. Over recent quarters, MELI has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does MercadoLibre, Inc. generate?
MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) generated $10.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 35.0%. MELI returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($1M TTM).