Upside case
Bull case
$152+93.6%
CTVA would need investors to value it at roughly 41x earnings — about 20x more generous than today's 21x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
37
analysts
23 bullish · 2 bearish · 37 covering CTVA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
23
Hold
12
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$89
+13.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$73 – $152
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
37
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
21.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $52.7B
CTVA price targets
Three scenarios for where CTVA stock could go
Current
~$79
Confidence
46 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $79
Bear
$73
Base
$115
Bull
$152
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$115+47.0%
At 31x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$73-7.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push CTVA down roughly 7% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Corteva, Inc.
CTVA · NYSEBasic MaterialsAgricultural InputsDecember year-end
Corteva is a global agricultural science company that develops seeds and crop protection products for farmers worldwide. It generates revenue primarily through its Seed segment (~60% of sales) and Crop Protection segment (~40%), selling proprietary seed genetics, traits, and chemical solutions. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive R&D pipeline—one of the largest in agriculture—and its portfolio of patented seed traits and crop protection technologies.
Market Cap
$52.7B
Revenue TTM
$17.9B
Net Income TTM
$1.2B
Net Margin
6.5%
CTVA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+20.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.20/$1.89
Revenue
$6.5B/$6.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.23/$-0.51
Revenue
$2.6B/$2.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.22/$0.22
Revenue
$3.9B/$4.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.50/$1.17
Revenue
$4.9B/$4.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.20/$1.89 | +16.4% | $6.5B/$6.3B | +3.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.23/$-0.51 | +54.6% | $2.6B/$2.5B | +6.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.22/$0.22 | -1.3% | $3.9B/$4.2B | -7.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.50/$1.17 | +28.2% | $4.9B/$4.6B | +5.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$18.3B
+2.3% YoY
FY2
$18.8B
+2.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.39
+38.7% YoY
FY2
$2.57
+7.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.1B
FCF Margin: 11.5%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.22
Expected Revenue
$6.6B
CTVA beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
CTVA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $24.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Seed
39.7%
+52.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
40.7%
+5.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Seed is the largest disclosed segment at 39.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 52.4% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 40.7%, up 5.1% YoY.
CTVA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $42 — implies -46.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
46.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CTVA
49.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+101% premium
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
CTVA
49.1x
vs
Basic Materials
23.6x
+108% premium
vs CTVA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
49.1x
vs
5Y Average
37.9x
+30% premium
Forward PE
21.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
+12%
Basic Materials
14.9x
+41%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
49.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
+101%
Basic Materials
23.6x
+108%
5Y Avg
37.9x
+30%
PEG Ratio
4.11x
S&P 500
1.66x
+148%
Basic Materials
1.23x
+234%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
-13%
Basic Materials
11.0x
+21%
5Y Avg
11.7x
+13%
Price/FCF
18.7x
S&P 500
20.7x
-9%
Basic Materials
29.0x
-35%
5Y Avg
49.3x
-62%
Price/Sales
3.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-2%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+61%
5Y Avg
2.3x
+31%
Dividend Yield
0.90%
S&P 500
1.91%
-53%
Basic Materials
1.41%
-36%
5Y Avg
1.12%
-20%
| Metric | CTVA | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg CTVA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 21.0x | 18.8x+12% | 14.9x+41% | — |
| Trailing PE | 49.1x | 24.4x+101% | 23.6x+108% | 37.9x+30% |
| PEG Ratio | 4.11x | 1.66x+148% | 1.23x+234% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.3x | 15.2x-13% | 11.0x+21% | 11.7x+13% |
| Price/FCF | 18.7x | 20.7x | 29.0x-35% | 49.3x-62% |
| Price/Sales | 3.0x | 3.1x | 1.9x+61% | 2.3x+31% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.90% | 1.91% | 1.41% | 1.12% |
CTVA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCTVA Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CTVA generates $2.1B in free cash flow at a 11.5% margin — returns 2.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$17.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
33.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
13.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.73
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
11.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$4.5B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
4.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.9%
Dividend
0.9%
Buyback
2.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.71
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
43.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
671M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCTVA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Medium
Farmer income sensitivity
A 10% decline in farmer net income could reduce Corteva's revenue growth by 150-200 bps, potentially leading to flat revenue growth.
High Risk
Global recession risk
A global recession could result in flat revenue and only +5% EPS growth, significantly below historical averages.
Medium
Valuation pressure
CTVA trades 10.2% below its 52-week high, indicating potential valuation concerns or market skepticism.
Lower
Narrow economic moat
Corteva's narrow moat may limit pricing power and competitive advantages in challenging market conditions.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CTVA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Narrow moat advantage
Corteva Inc. has a narrow moat, providing competitive advantages in its industry.
Strong institutional ownership
Vanguard Group is the top holder with 12% ownership, indicating strong institutional confidence.
Comprehensive equity research
Full equity research reports include investment thesis, valuation methods, and buy/sell recommendations.
Bullish Substack thesis
A bullish thesis on Corteva highlights positive outlooks from Business Model Mastery.
Investor relations focus
Corteva maintains a dedicated Investor Relations website, providing transparency and business updates.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CTVA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$78.56
52W Range Position
72%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$60.54
+29.8% from the low
52-Week High
$85.63
-8.3% from the high
1 Month
-3.11%
3 Month
-0.98%
YTD
+15.9%
1 Year
+6.0%
3Y CAGR
+11.6%
5Y CAGR
+13.0%
10Y CAGR
+10.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CTVA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
21.0x
vs 11.0x median
+91% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.3%
vs +3.6% median
-35% below peer median
Net Margin
6.5%
vs 8.6% median
-25% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CTV CTVA Corteva, Inc. | $52.7B | 21.0x | +2.3% | 6.5% | Buy | +13.5% |
FMC FMC FMC Corporation | $1.4B | 6.8x | +2.7% | -72.9% | Hold | +39.4% |
CF CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | $15.8B | 6.0x | +9.8% | 23.7% | Buy | +8.7% |
MOS MOS The Mosaic Company | $7.3B | 27.8x | +3.6% | 6.0% | Hold | +22.3% |
NTR NTR Nutrien Ltd. | $30.2B | 11.0x | +3.6% | 8.6% | Buy | +30.4% |
AMG AMGN Amgen Inc. | $182.2B | 15.1x | +6.2% | 20.9% | Buy | +3.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CTVA Dividend and Capital Return
CTVA returns capital mainly through $1.1B/year in buybacks (2.0% buyback yield), with a modest 0.90% dividend — combining for 2.9% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 7 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.0%
Dividend Yield
0.90%
Payout Ratio
43.4%
How CTVA Splits Its Return
Div 0.90%
Buyback 2.0%
Dividend 0.90%Buybacks 2.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.71
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
7Y
3Y Div CAGR
6.5%
5Y Div CAGR
6.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
14M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
671M
At 2.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.36 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.70 | +6.1% | 2.4% | 3.4% |
| 2024 | $0.66 | +6.5% | 2.5% | 3.7% |
| 2023 | $0.62 | +6.9% | 2.2% | 3.5% |
| 2022 | $0.58 | +7.4% | 2.3% | 3.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsCTVA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 37 analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $89, implying +13.5% from the current price of $79. The bear case scenario is $73 and the bull case is $152.
02What is the CTVA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CTVA is $89 based on 37 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $95 (+20.9% from today), and the low-end target is $82 (+4.4%). The base case model target is $115.
03Is Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) stock overvalued in 2026?
CTVA trades at 21.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CTVA in 2026 are: (1) Global recession risk — A global recession could result in flat revenue and only +5% EPS growth, significantly below historical averages. (2) Farmer income sensitivity — A 10% decline in farmer net income could reduce Corteva's revenue growth by 150-200 bps, potentially leading to flat revenue growth. (3) Valuation pressure — CTVA trades 10. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Corteva, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CTVA will report consensus revenue of $18.3B (+2.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.39 (+38.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $18.8B in revenue.
06When does Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) report its next earnings?
Corteva, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $2.22 and revenue of $6.6B. Over recent quarters, CTVA has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Corteva, Inc. generate?
Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) generated $2.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 11.5%. CTVA returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.9% yield) and share repurchases ($1.1B TTM).