Upside case
Bull case
$182+116.6%
CTVA would need investors to value it at roughly 50x earnings — about 27x more generous than today's 23x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
37
analysts
23 bullish · 2 bearish · 37 covering CTVA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
23
Hold
12
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$88
+5.1% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $182
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
37
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
22.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $56.3B
CTVA price targets
Three scenarios for where CTVA stock could go
Current
~$84
Confidence
55 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $84
Base
$124
Bull
$182
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$124+47.2%
At 34x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Corteva, Inc.
CTVA · NYSEBasic MaterialsAgricultural InputsDecember year-end
Corteva is a global agricultural science company that develops seeds and crop protection products for farmers worldwide. It generates revenue primarily through its Seed segment (~60% of sales) and Crop Protection segment (~40%), selling proprietary seed genetics, traits, and chemical solutions. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive R&D pipeline—one of the largest in agriculture—and its portfolio of patented seed traits and crop protection technologies.
Market Cap
$56.3B
Revenue TTM
$17.9B
Net Income TTM
$1.2B
Net Margin
6.5%
CTVA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+20.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.13/$0.87
Revenue
$4.4B/$4.5B
Q3 2025
EPS
$2.20/$1.89
Revenue
$6.5B/$6.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.23/$-0.51
Revenue
$2.6B/$2.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.22/$0.22
Revenue
$3.9B/$4.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.13/$0.87 | +29.3% | $4.4B/$4.5B | -2.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.20/$1.89 | +16.4% | $6.5B/$6.3B | +3.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.23/$-0.51 | +54.6% | $2.6B/$2.5B | +6.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.22/$0.22 | -1.3% | $3.9B/$4.2B | -7.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$17.9B
+2.9% YoY
FY2
$18.3B
+2.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.38
+46.3% YoY
FY2
$2.36
-0.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.1B
FCF Margin: 11.5%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
CTVA beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
CTVA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $24.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Seed
39.7%
+52.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
40.7%
+5.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Seed is the largest disclosed segment at 39.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 52.4% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 40.7%, up 5.1% YoY.
CTVA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $64 — implies -20.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
20.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CTVA
52.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+109% premium
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
CTVA
52.4x
vs
Basic Materials
22.3x
+136% premium
vs CTVA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
52.4x
vs
5Y Average
37.9x
+38% premium
Forward PE
22.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
+20%
Basic Materials
15.2x
+50%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
52.4x
S&P 500
25.1x
+109%
Basic Materials
22.3x
+136%
5Y Avg
37.9x
+38%
PEG Ratio
4.39x
S&P 500
1.72x
+156%
Basic Materials
1.17x
+274%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
-6%
Basic Materials
11.0x
+30%
5Y Avg
11.7x
+21%
Price/FCF
20.0x
S&P 500
21.1x
-5%
Basic Materials
25.6x
-22%
5Y Avg
49.3x
-59%
Price/Sales
3.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+4%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+71%
5Y Avg
2.3x
+40%
Dividend Yield
0.84%
S&P 500
1.87%
-55%
Basic Materials
1.32%
-36%
5Y Avg
1.12%
-25%
| Metric | CTVA | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg CTVA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 22.9x | 19.1x+20% | 15.2x+50% | — |
| Trailing PE | 52.4x | 25.1x+109% | 22.3x+136% | 37.9x+38% |
| PEG Ratio | 4.39x | 1.72x+156% | 1.17x+274% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.2x | 15.2x | 11.0x+30% | 11.7x+21% |
| Price/FCF | 20.0x | 21.1x | 25.6x-22% | 49.3x-59% |
| Price/Sales | 3.2x | 3.1x | 1.9x+71% | 2.3x+40% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.84% | 1.87% | 1.32% | 1.12% |
CTVA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCTVA Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CTVA generates $2.1B in free cash flow at a 11.5% margin — returns 2.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$17.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
33.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
13.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.73
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
11.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$4.5B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
4.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.7%
Dividend
0.8%
Buyback
1.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.71
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
43.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
671M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCTVA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory Approvals
Corteva may fail to obtain or maintain necessary regulatory approvals for its products, which could restrict sales in key markets and reduce revenue streams. The company’s reliance on approvals for biotechnology and new products heightens this risk.
High Risk
Litigation & Legal Liabilities
Ongoing legal proceedings, including litigation with Bayer and FTC investigations, expose Corteva to significant financial and reputational risks. Potential settlement costs and adverse judgments could materially impact earnings.
Medium
Seed Business Spin‑Off
The planned spin‑off of Corteva’s seed business in late 2026 may create volatility and uncertainty in earnings, capital allocation, and investor perception. The transition period could affect operational focus and financial performance.
Medium
Competitive Pricing
Intense competition in the Crop Protection segment, particularly in Latin America, has led to price declines despite volume increases, eroding margins. This pricing pressure could limit revenue growth.
Medium
Input Cost Volatility
Fluctuations in raw material and production costs can erode profitability. Corteva’s exposure to volatile input prices may compress margins if costs rise faster than sales.
Medium
Currency Fluctuations
Unfavorable movements in the Brazilian Real, Swiss Franc, Euro, and Canadian Dollar can negatively impact financial results, given the company’s exposure to these currencies. Currency volatility may affect both revenue and cost structures.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CTVA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Intellectual Property Powerhouse
Corteva boasts over 16,400 active patents, many with significant remaining life, underpinning a modular architecture that compounds value over time. The company invests roughly 8% of its sales in research and development to fuel its pipeline.
Strategic Seed & Crop Split
Corteva plans to separate its seed and crop protection businesses into two independent publicly traded companies, with the crop protection unit retaining the Corteva name. The seed spin‑off is slated for late 2026, aiming to unlock value through focused execution.
Rapid Biologicals Growth
The biologicals business has seen revenue surge dramatically over just two years, driven by adoption of sustainable farming practices and a shift away from traditional chemistries. These products typically command higher gross margins, enhancing profitability.
AI‑Driven Crop Sustainability
Corteva is partnering with Profluent Bio to advance AI‑driven crop sustainability solutions, positioning the company at the forefront of agricultural technology innovation.
Global Seed & Crop Leader
Corteva holds a leading global position in seeds and crop protection products, reinforcing its market dominance and providing a strong platform for continued growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CTVA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$83.91
52W Range Position
93%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$60.54
+38.6% from the low
52-Week High
$85.63
-2.0% from the high
1 Month
-0.44%
3 Month
+15.79%
YTD
+23.8%
1 Year
+34.4%
3Y CAGR
+12.9%
5Y CAGR
+12.0%
10Y CAGR
+11.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CTVA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
22.9x
vs 13.6x median
+69% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.9%
vs +1.4% median
+111% above peer median
Net Margin
6.5%
vs 10.5% median
-38% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CTV CTVA Corteva, Inc. | $56.3B | 22.9x | +2.9% | 6.5% | Buy | +5.1% |
FMC FMC FMC Corporation | $1.9B | 8.4x | -7.4% | -72.9% | Hold | +4.8% |
CF CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | $20.0B | 9.1x | +0.2% | 20.5% | Buy | -15.0% |
MOS MOS The Mosaic Company | $7.4B | 15.9x | +3.3% | 10.5% | Hold | +34.4% |
NTR NTR Nutrien Ltd. | $37.3B | 13.6x | +1.4% | 8.4% | Buy | +9.1% |
AMG AMGN Amgen Inc. | $177.9B | 14.8x | +4.5% | 20.9% | Buy | +6.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CTVA Dividend and Capital Return
CTVA returns capital mainly through $1.1B/year in buybacks (1.9% buyback yield), with a modest 0.84% dividend — combining for 2.7% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 6 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.9%
Dividend Yield
0.84%
Payout Ratio
43.4%
How CTVA Splits Its Return
Div 0.84%
Buyback 1.9%
Dividend 0.84%Buybacks 1.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.71
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
6Y
3Y Div CAGR
6.5%
5Y Div CAGR
6.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
13M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
671M
At 1.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.70 | +6.1% | 2.4% | 3.4% |
| 2024 | $0.66 | +6.5% | 2.5% | 3.7% |
| 2023 | $0.62 | +6.9% | 2.2% | 3.5% |
| 2022 | $0.58 | +7.4% | 2.3% | 3.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsCTVA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 37 analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $88, implying +5.1% from the current price of $84.
02What is the CTVA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CTVA is $88 based on 37 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $95 (+13.2% from today), and the low-end target is $82 (-2.3%). The base case model target is $124.
03Is Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) stock overvalued in 2026?
CTVA trades at 22.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CTVA in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory Approvals — Corteva may fail to obtain or maintain necessary regulatory approvals for its products, which could restrict sales in key markets and reduce revenue streams. (2) Litigation & Legal Liabilities — Ongoing legal proceedings, including litigation with Bayer and FTC investigations, expose Corteva to significant financial and reputational risks. (3) Seed Business Spin‑Off — The planned spin‑off of Corteva’s seed business in late 2026 may create volatility and uncertainty in earnings, capital allocation, and investor perception. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Corteva, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CTVA will report consensus revenue of $17.9B (+2.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.38 (+46.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $18.3B in revenue.
06When does Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for CTVA is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Corteva, Inc. generate?
Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) generated $2.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 11.5%. CTVA returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.8% yield) and share repurchases ($1.1B TTM).