Upside case
Bull case
$1784+644.7%
HUM would need investors to value it at roughly 200x earnings — about 173x more generous than today's 27x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Humana Inc. (HUM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
44
analysts
14 bullish · 2 bearish · 44 covering HUM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
14
Hold
28
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$246
+2.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$244 – $1784
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
44
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
26.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $28.8B
HUM price targets
Three scenarios for where HUM stock could go
Current
~$240
Confidence
80 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $240
Bear
$244
Base
$358
Bull
$1784
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$358+49.6%
At 40x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$244+1.8%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push HUM down roughly 2% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Humana Inc.
HUM · NYSEHealthcareMedical - Healthcare PlansDecember year-end
Humana is a major health insurance company focused primarily on Medicare Advantage plans for seniors. It generates revenue primarily from premiums for Medicare Advantage plans (about 80% of revenue), supplemented by commercial group insurance and pharmacy services. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep expertise in the Medicare market, extensive provider networks, and integrated care delivery model that combines insurance with clinical services.
Market Cap
$28.8B
Revenue TTM
$137.2B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
0.8%
HUM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$6.27/$5.92
Revenue
$32.4B/$31.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.24/$2.93
Revenue
$32.6B/$32.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$-3.96/$-4.00
Revenue
$32.5B/$32.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$10.31/$9.97
Revenue
$39.6B/$39.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $6.27/$5.92 | +5.9% | $32.4B/$31.9B | +1.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.24/$2.93 | +10.6% | $32.6B/$32.0B | +2.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $-3.96/$-4.00 | +1.0% | $32.5B/$32.0B | +1.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.31/$9.97 | +3.4% | $39.6B/$39.4B | +0.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$157.5B
+14.8% YoY
FY2
$169.2B
+7.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.30
+10.0% YoY
FY2
$14.73
+43.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.3B
FCF Margin: 0.9%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
HUM beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
HUM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $147.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Insurance Segment
84.7%
+9.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Insurance Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 84.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 9.5% YoY.
HUM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $308 — implies +31.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
31.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HUM
24.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
In line with benchmark
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
HUM
24.3x
vs
Healthcare
22.2x
+10% premium
vs HUM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
24.3x
vs
5Y Average
23.6x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
26.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
+41%
Healthcare
18.8x
+42%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
24.3x
S&P 500
25.1x
-3%
Healthcare
22.2x
+10%
5Y Avg
23.6x
+3%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Healthcare
1.53x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
+8%
Healthcare
14.0x
+17%
5Y Avg
16.3x
+1%
Price/FCF
76.7x
S&P 500
21.1x
+264%
Healthcare
18.6x
+313%
5Y Avg
39.7x
+93%
Price/Sales
0.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-93%
Healthcare
2.8x
-92%
5Y Avg
0.5x
-55%
Dividend Yield
1.49%
S&P 500
1.87%
-20%
Healthcare
1.42%
+5%
5Y Avg
0.95%
+57%
| Metric | HUM | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg HUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 26.8x | 19.1x+41% | 18.8x+42% | — |
| Trailing PE | 24.3x | 25.1x | 22.2x | 23.6x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.53x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.5x | 15.2x | 14.0x+17% | 16.3x |
| Price/FCF | 76.7x | 21.1x+264% | 18.6x+313% | 39.7x+93% |
| Price/Sales | 0.2x | 3.1x-93% | 2.8x-92% | 0.5x-55% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.49% | 1.87% | 1.42% | 0.95% |
HUM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHUM Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
HUM posts 0.8% net margin with 6.2% ROE — the core signals of underwriting discipline and capital efficiency.
Underwriting & Earnings
Premium revenue, margins, and returns
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$137.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+14.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
1.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
0.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.37
ROE
Return on equity — measures underwriting and investment efficiency
6.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$4.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$8.7B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
6.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.0%
Dividend
1.5%
Buyback
0.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$151M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.56
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
36.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
120M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageHUM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Increased Healthcare Costs
Higher utilization of medical facilities and services, along with increased prescription drug costs, particularly for specialty drugs, can significantly impact Humana's profitability. The introduction of new, costly treatments or technologies further exacerbates this risk.
High Risk
Government Regulation
As a government contractor, Humana is subject to substantial government regulation. Changes in laws or regulations can increase costs, restrict revenue, and adversely affect profitability.
High Risk
Medicare Advantage Program Risks
Declines in Medicare Advantage plan star ratings can negatively impact quality bonus payments from CMS, affecting revenues and operating results. Additionally, changes to CMS's risk-adjustment model could materially affect financial performance.
Medium
Medical Cost Inflation
Rising medical costs can pressure Humana's margins if not offset by pricing and cost efficiencies. This inflationary trend poses a significant risk to maintaining profitability.
Medium
Debt Levels
An increase in debt-to-total capitalization, such as the company's $1.0 billion public offering planned for March 2026, can impact Humana's financial flexibility and increase its vulnerability to financial downturns.
Medium
Litigation and Negative Publicity
Increased litigation and negative publicity can elevate operational costs and impact Humana's reputation. This risk can lead to higher legal expenses and potential settlements.
Lower
Catastrophic Events
Public health emergencies, pandemics, natural disasters, or acts of terrorism can disrupt operations and increase costs. While these events are unpredictable, their potential impact on business continuity is significant.
Lower
Integration of Acquisitions
Integrating new acquisitions, such as MaxHealth, can lead to higher operating costs and operational challenges. The success of these integrations is crucial for realizing anticipated synergies.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HUM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Medicare Advantage Strength
Humana is a major player in the Medicare Advantage (MA) market, which is a significant growth driver for the company. Despite increased competition and utilization rates, Humana's individual MA membership is projected to grow substantially.
Margin Improvement Strategy
Management is focused on restoring and improving margins through various initiatives, including moderating marketing costs and enhancing risk adjustment. The company has a multi-year plan to achieve significant transformation savings.
CenterWell Growth
The CenterWell segment, which includes healthcare services, is a key area for expansion. Humana is integrating new contracts and acquiring businesses within this segment to broaden its national footprint.
Financial Guidance and Reaffirmation
Humana has reaffirmed its full-year 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance of 'at least $9.00.' This guidance is seen as already priced into the stock, removing a significant overhang despite expectations of lower EPS due to a 'Stars headwind.'
Insider Confidence
Recent insider purchases of Humana common shares signal confidence from company leadership at current price levels. This insider activity often reflects a positive outlook on the company's future performance.
Strategic Initiatives
Humana is implementing a customer-led benefit strategy and changes to its customer service approach to improve retention and drive membership growth. The company is also focused on operational efficiency and cost transformation.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HUM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$239.53
52W Range Position
50%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$163.11
+46.9% from the low
52-Week High
$315.35
-24.0% from the high
1 Month
+31.14%
3 Month
+23.76%
YTD
-9.4%
1 Year
-6.7%
3Y CAGR
-23.5%
5Y CAGR
-12.2%
10Y CAGR
+3.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HUM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
26.8x
vs 15.7x median
+71% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+14.8%
vs +4.0% median
+267% above peer median
Net Margin
0.8%
vs 0.4% median
+87% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HUM HUM Humana Inc. | $28.8B | 26.8x | +14.8% | 0.8% | Hold | +2.7% |
UNH UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | $330.3B | 19.9x | +3.2% | 2.7% | Buy | +5.9% |
CVS CVS CVS Health Corporation | $102.6B | 11.3x | +3.5% | 0.4% | Buy | +18.0% |
ELV ELV Elevance Health Inc. | $80.1B | 13.8x | +4.0% | 2.6% | Buy | +3.6% |
CNC CNC Centene Corporation | $26.2B | 15.7x | +7.6% | -3.3% | Buy | -3.7% |
MOH MOH Molina Healthcare, Inc. | $10.0B | 37.3x | +8.2% | 0.4% | Buy | -13.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HUM Dividend and Capital Return
HUM returns 2.0% total yield, led by a 1.49% dividend. Buybacks add another 0.5%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.5%
Dividend Yield
1.49%
Payout Ratio
36.2%
How HUM Splits Its Return
Div 1.49%
Buyback 0.5%
Dividend 1.49%Buybacks 0.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.56
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.0%
5Y Div CAGR
7.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$151M
Estimated Shares Retired
630.4K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
120M
At 0.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.77 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.54 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 1.9% |
| 2024 | $3.54 | 0.0% | 2.7% | 4.1% |
| 2023 | $3.54 | +12.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% |
| 2022 | $3.15 | +12.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsHUM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Humana Inc. (HUM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Humana Inc. (HUM) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 44 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 28 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $246, implying +2.7% from the current price of $240. The bear case scenario is $244 and the bull case is $1784.
02What is the HUM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HUM is $246 based on 44 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $344 (+43.6% from today), and the low-end target is $146 (-39.0%). The base case model target is $358.
03Is Humana Inc. (HUM) stock overvalued in 2026?
HUM trades at 26.8x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Humana Inc. (HUM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HUM in 2026 are: (1) Increased Healthcare Costs — Higher utilization of medical facilities and services, along with increased prescription drug costs, particularly for specialty drugs, can significantly impact Humana's profitability. (2) Government Regulation — As a government contractor, Humana is subject to substantial government regulation. (3) Medicare Advantage Program Risks — Declines in Medicare Advantage plan star ratings can negatively impact quality bonus payments from CMS, affecting revenues and operating results. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Humana Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HUM will report consensus revenue of $157.5B (+14.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.30 (+10.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $169.2B in revenue.
06When does Humana Inc. (HUM) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for HUM is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Humana Inc. generate?
Humana Inc. (HUM) generated $1.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 0.9%. HUM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.5% yield) and share repurchases ($151M TTM).