Upside case
Bull case
$1052+189.2%
UNH would need investors to value it at roughly 57x earnings — about 38x more generous than today's 20x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
52
analysts
42 bullish · 4 bearish · 52 covering UNH
Strong Buy
0
Buy
42
Hold
6
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$385
+5.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$380 – $1052
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
52
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $330.3B
UNH price targets
Three scenarios for where UNH stock could go
Current
~$364
Confidence
86 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $364
Bear
$380
Base
$559
Bull
$1052
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$559+53.6%
At 31x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$380+4.3%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push UNH down roughly 4% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
UNH · NYSEHealthcareMedical - Healthcare PlansDecember year-end
UnitedHealth Group is a diversified healthcare company that operates both health insurance plans and healthcare services businesses. It generates revenue primarily through health insurance premiums (UnitedHealthcare segment) and healthcare services including pharmacy benefits management, data analytics, and care delivery (Optum segments). The company's key advantage is its integrated model—combining insurance with healthcare services—which creates data synergies and vertical integration moats.
Market Cap
$330.3B
Revenue TTM
$449.7B
Net Income TTM
$12.0B
Net Margin
2.7%
UNH Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$4.08/$4.45
Revenue
$111.6B/$111.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.92/$2.80
Revenue
$113.2B/$113.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.11/$2.10
Revenue
$113.2B/$113.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$7.23/$6.58
Revenue
$111.7B/$109.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $4.08/$4.45 | -8.3% | $111.6B/$111.5B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.92/$2.80 | +4.3% | $113.2B/$113.0B | +0.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.11/$2.10 | +0.5% | $113.2B/$113.8B | -0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.23/$6.58 | +9.9% | $111.7B/$109.4B | +2.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$464.1B
+3.2% YoY
FY2
$508.5B
+9.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$17.67
+33.5% YoY
FY2
$20.32
+15.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$19.7B
FCF Margin: 4.4%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
UNH beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
UNH Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $352.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Unitedhealthcare
94.4%
+11.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Unitedhealthcare is the largest disclosed segment at 94.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 11.5% YoY.
UNH Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $385 — implies +4.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
4.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
UNH
27.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+10% premium
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
UNH
27.5x
vs
Healthcare
22.2x
+24% premium
vs UNH 5Y Avg P/E
Today
27.5x
vs
5Y Average
26.5x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
19.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
+4%
Healthcare
18.8x
+6%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
27.5x
S&P 500
25.1x
+10%
Healthcare
22.2x
+24%
5Y Avg
26.5x
+4%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Healthcare
1.53x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
+8%
Healthcare
14.0x
+18%
5Y Avg
16.0x
+3%
Price/FCF
20.5x
S&P 500
21.1x
-3%
Healthcare
18.6x
+11%
5Y Avg
21.3x
-3%
Price/Sales
0.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-76%
Healthcare
2.8x
-74%
5Y Avg
1.3x
-42%
Dividend Yield
2.39%
S&P 500
1.87%
+28%
Healthcare
1.42%
+68%
5Y Avg
1.58%
+51%
| Metric | UNH | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg UNH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.9x | 19.1x | 18.8x | — |
| Trailing PE | 27.5x | 25.1x | 22.2x+24% | 26.5x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.53x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.5x | 15.2x | 14.0x+18% | 16.0x |
| Price/FCF | 20.5x | 21.1x | 18.6x+11% | 21.3x |
| Price/Sales | 0.7x | 3.1x-76% | 2.8x-74% | 1.3x-42% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.39% | 1.87% | 1.42% | 1.58% |
UNH trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolUNH Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
UNH posts 2.7% net margin with 11.5% ROE — the core signals of underwriting discipline and capital efficiency.
Underwriting & Earnings
Premium revenue, margins, and returns
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$449.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
4.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$13.24
ROE
Return on equity — measures underwriting and investment efficiency
11.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$24.4B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$54.0B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
11.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.1%
Dividend
2.4%
Buyback
1.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$5.5B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$8.70
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
65.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
908M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageUNH Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Medicare Advantage Scrutiny
UnitedHealth Group is under investigation by the Department of Justice for Medicare Advantage coding practices, including allegations of upcoding and overbilling to inflate government reimbursements. If the investigations result in penalties or reimbursement clawbacks, the company could face significant financial losses and reputational damage.
Medium
Medical Cost Inflation
Rising medical costs, especially among seniors, have driven higher-than-expected utilization and expenses, squeezing UnitedHealth’s profit margins. The company’s Altman Z‑Score indicates it sits in a grey area, suggesting that continued cost inflation could threaten financial stability.
Medium
Change Healthcare Cyberattack
The ransomware attack on subsidiary Change Healthcare disrupted claims processing, delayed payments, and exposed sensitive data. The incident has led to lawsuits and heightened scrutiny of UnitedHealth’s cybersecurity posture, potentially increasing regulatory and litigation costs.
Lower
Integrated Model Antitrust Investigation
UnitedHealth’s vertical integration of UnitedHealthcare and Optum is under antitrust investigation, raising the risk of forced restructuring or divestitures. Such actions could impair operational synergies and reduce competitive advantage.
Lower
Financial Stress Indicator
UnitedHealth’s Altman Z‑Score places it in a grey zone, indicating some financial stress. While the company remains a market leader, this metric suggests that future adverse events could strain liquidity and capital adequacy.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why UNH Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Earnings Growth & Margin Expansion
Analysts project earnings growth across UNH’s Optum segments with increases in the low to high single digits, coupled with margin improvements. The company’s vertical integration of insurance and health services is viewed as a competitive advantage that boosts revenue and margin potential. Management prioritizes earnings quality, exiting unprofitable contracts to enhance profitability.
Strategic Repricing & Cost Management
UNH is implementing repricing strategies across Medicare Advantage, Medicaid, and commercial lines, expected to lift operating margins. The firm is also re‑baselining Optum operations, reinforcing its commitment to integrated value‑based care.
Value‑Based Care & AI Integration
The firm’s growing use of AI improves workflows and claims processing within Optum, driving margin expansion. Value‑based care programs are also seen as catalysts for earnings recovery.
Share Buybacks & Undervaluation
Management plans to accelerate share buybacks if the stock remains discounted to intrinsic value. Discounted cash‑flow models suggest significant upside potential, implying the stock is undervalued.
Stabilizing Medicare Advantage Funding
Proposed Medicare Advantage rate increases for 2027 are viewed as a stabilizing factor for funding pressures, offering a more favorable outlook than initially feared.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
UNH Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$363.87
52W Range Position
76%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$234.60
+55.1% from the low
52-Week High
$404.72
-10.1% from the high
1 Month
+29.33%
3 Month
+35.49%
YTD
+8.2%
1 Year
-10.1%
3Y CAGR
-9.7%
5Y CAGR
-2.5%
10Y CAGR
+10.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
UNH vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.9x
vs 13.8x median
+44% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.2%
vs +7.5% median
-57% below peer median
Net Margin
2.7%
vs 0.8% median
+225% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UNH UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | $330.3B | 19.9x | +3.2% | 2.7% | Buy | +5.9% |
CVS CVS CVS Health Corporation | $102.6B | 11.3x | +3.5% | 0.4% | Buy | +18.0% |
ELV ELV Elevance Health Inc. | $80.1B | 13.8x | +4.0% | 2.6% | Buy | +3.6% |
CI CI Cigna Corporation | $72.7B | 9.1x | +7.5% | 2.3% | Buy | +19.0% |
HUM HUM Humana Inc. | $28.8B | 26.8x | +14.8% | 0.8% | Hold | +2.7% |
CNC CNC Centene Corporation | $26.2B | 15.7x | +7.6% | -3.3% | Buy | -3.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
UNH Dividend and Capital Return
UNH returns 4.1% total yield, led by a 2.39% dividend, raised 25 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 1.7%.
Dividend WatchFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.7%
Dividend Yield
2.39%
Payout Ratio
65.7%
How UNH Splits Its Return
Div 2.39%
Buyback 1.7%
Dividend 2.39%Buybacks 1.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$8.70
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
25Y
3Y Div CAGR
10.9%
5Y Div CAGR
12.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$5.5B
Estimated Shares Retired
15M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
908M
At 1.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.21 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $8.73 | +6.7% | 1.8% | 4.5% |
| 2024 | $8.18 | +12.2% | 1.9% | 3.5% |
| 2023 | $7.29 | +13.9% | 1.6% | 3.0% |
| 2022 | $6.40 | +14.3% | 1.4% | 2.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsUNH Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 52 analysts covering the stock, 42 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $385, implying +5.9% from the current price of $364. The bear case scenario is $380 and the bull case is $1052.
02What is the UNH stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for UNH is $385 based on 52 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $444 (+22.0% from today), and the low-end target is $327 (-10.1%). The base case model target is $559.
03Is UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) stock overvalued in 2026?
UNH trades at 19.9x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for UNH in 2026 are: (1) Medicare Advantage Scrutiny — UnitedHealth Group is under investigation by the Department of Justice for Medicare Advantage coding practices, including allegations of upcoding and overbilling to inflate government reimbursements. (2) Medical Cost Inflation — Rising medical costs, especially among seniors, have driven higher-than-expected utilization and expenses, squeezing UnitedHealth’s profit margins. (3) Change Healthcare Cyberattack — The ransomware attack on subsidiary Change Healthcare disrupted claims processing, delayed payments, and exposed sensitive data. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates UNH will report consensus revenue of $464.1B (+3.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $17.67 (+33.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $508.5B in revenue.
06When does UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for UNH is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does UnitedHealth Group Incorporated generate?
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) generated $19.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.4%. UNH returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.4% yield) and share repurchases ($5.5B TTM).