Upside case
Bull case
$910+142.8%
ELV would need investors to value it at roughly 34x earnings — about 20x more generous than today's 14x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Elevance Health Inc. (ELV) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
37
analysts
26 bullish · 0 bearish · 37 covering ELV
Strong Buy
0
Buy
26
Hold
11
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$382
+2.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$403 – $910
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
37
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
14.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $81.4B
ELV price targets
Three scenarios for where ELV stock could go
Current
~$375
Confidence
80 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $375
Bear
$403
Base
$494
Bull
$910
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$494+31.8%
At 18x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$403+7.5%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push ELV down roughly 7% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Elevance Health Inc.
ELV · NYSEHealthcareMedical - Healthcare PlansDecember year-end
Elevance Health is a major health benefits company that provides medical insurance and integrated health services to millions of Americans. It generates revenue primarily through health insurance premiums — accounting for the vast majority of its income — supplemented by pharmacy benefit management and care delivery services. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive scale, diversified portfolio of health solutions, and deep integration across insurance, pharmacy, and clinical care.
Market Cap
$81.4B
Revenue TTM
$200.4B
Net Income TTM
$5.2B
Net Margin
2.6%
ELV Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$8.84/$8.91
Revenue
$49.8B/$48.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$6.03/$4.93
Revenue
$50.7B/$49.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.33/$3.10
Revenue
$49.3B/$49.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$12.58/$11.03
Revenue
$49.5B/$48.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $8.84/$8.91 | -0.8% | $49.8B/$48.2B | +3.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.03/$4.93 | +22.3% | $50.7B/$49.4B | +2.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.33/$3.10 | +7.4% | $49.3B/$49.8B | -1.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.58/$11.03 | +14.1% | $49.5B/$48.2B | +2.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$208.5B
+4.0% YoY
FY2
$227.6B
+9.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$28.17
+18.4% YoY
FY2
$33.11
+17.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$6.5B
FCF Margin: 3.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ELV beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
ELV Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $197.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Health Benefits Segment
84.8%
+11.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Health Benefits Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 84.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 11.2% YoY.
ELV Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $549 — implies +47.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
47.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ELV
14.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
41% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
ELV
14.9x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
33% discount
vs ELV 5Y Avg P/E
Today
14.9x
vs
5Y Average
17.4x
14% discount
Forward PE
14.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-27%
Healthcare
19.0x
-26%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
14.9x
S&P 500
25.2x
-41%
Healthcare
22.1x
-33%
5Y Avg
17.4x
-14%
PEG Ratio
2.16x
S&P 500
1.75x
+24%
Healthcare
1.52x
+42%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
-29%
Healthcare
14.1x
-23%
5Y Avg
12.2x
-11%
Price/FCF
25.6x
S&P 500
21.3x
+20%
Healthcare
18.7x
+37%
5Y Avg
18.6x
+38%
Price/Sales
0.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-87%
Healthcare
2.8x
-86%
5Y Avg
0.6x
-35%
Dividend Yield
1.84%
S&P 500
1.88%
-2%
Healthcare
1.40%
+31%
5Y Avg
1.38%
+33%
| Metric | ELV | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg ELV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 14.0x | 19.1x-27% | 19.0x-26% | — |
| Trailing PE | 14.9x | 25.2x-41% | 22.1x-33% | 17.4x-14% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.16x | 1.75x+24% | 1.52x+42% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.9x | 15.3x-29% | 14.1x-23% | 12.2x-11% |
| Price/FCF | 25.6x | 21.3x+20% | 18.7x+37% | 18.6x+38% |
| Price/Sales | 0.4x | 3.1x-87% | 2.8x-86% | 0.6x-35% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.84% | 1.88% | 1.40% | 1.38% |
ELV trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolELV Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
ELV posts 2.6% net margin with 11.9% ROE — the core signals of underwriting discipline and capital efficiency.
Underwriting & Earnings
Premium revenue, margins, and returns
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$200.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
3.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$23.79
ROE
Return on equity — measures underwriting and investment efficiency
11.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$9.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$23.7B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
11.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.0%
Dividend
1.8%
Buyback
3.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.6B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$6.89
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
27.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
217M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageELV Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory Uncertainty
Changes in healthcare policy, especially Medicare and Medicaid, can alter enrollment and reimbursement rates. CMS has already scrutinized Elevance for compliance issues, and further regulatory shifts could reduce future revenue streams.
High Risk
Legal & Regulatory Investigations
The company faces investigations for potential securities fraud and sanctions related to historical data submissions. These proceedings could result in fines, reputational damage, and investor confidence erosion.
High Risk
Competitive Pressures
Elevance competes with numerous established insurers and new entrants, requiring constant product innovation and pricing adjustments. Failure to keep pace could erode market share and margin compression.
Medium
Membership Decline
A downturn in commercial sector membership threatens growth, as pricing strategies and member retention become critical. Reduced enrollment directly impacts revenue and scale.
Medium
Interest Rate & Executive Risk
Variable-rate debt exposes the firm to rising borrowing costs, while loss of key executives could disrupt operations. Both factors could negatively affect profitability.
Medium
Digital Platform Execution
Investments in AI and digital health platforms carry risks of failed integration and scaling. Poor execution could limit cost savings and competitive advantage.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ELV Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Strong Earnings Momentum
Elevance Health has delivered a trailing‑12‑month EPS growth of 36.29%, placing it in the top 25% of its industry. This momentum underpins expectations for continued earnings expansion.
Robust Profitability Metrics
The company reports a return on equity of 12.90% and a gross profit margin of 100%, both ranking in the top 10% of its sector. These figures signal efficient capital use and high pricing power.
Consistent Dividend Growth
Elevance has increased its dividend for 15 straight years, yielding 2.42% today. The long‑term dividend track record supports a stable income stream for investors.
Strategic Legal Wins
Recent favorable court rulings, particularly in the Blue Cross/Shield segment, have reinforced the company’s market position and revenue base. These decisions mitigate regulatory uncertainty and support growth.
Technology-Driven Efficiency
Significant investments in technology are aimed at optimizing operations across the organization. The focus on digital transformation is expected to reduce costs and improve service delivery.
Anticipated EPS Growth & Cash Flow
The company projects at least 12% adjusted EPS growth in 2027, driven by a repositioned Medicare Advantage book and expanded Carelon Services. Free cash flow is forecast to surge as timing distortions from delayed Medicaid payments reverse.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ELV Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$374.71
52W Range Position
67%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$273.71
+36.9% from the low
52-Week High
$424.24
-11.7% from the high
1 Month
+23.83%
3 Month
+10.54%
YTD
+5.8%
1 Year
-9.5%
3Y CAGR
-7.0%
5Y CAGR
-0.7%
10Y CAGR
+10.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ELV vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
14.0x
vs 16.4x median
-15% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.0%
vs +7.5% median
-46% below peer median
Net Margin
2.6%
vs 0.8% median
+218% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ELV ELV Elevance Health Inc. | $81.4B | 14.0x | +4.0% | 2.6% | Buy | +2.0% |
UNH UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | $333.4B | 20.1x | +3.2% | 2.7% | Buy | +4.9% |
CVS CVS CVS Health Corporation | $111.3B | 12.1x | +3.5% | 0.7% | Buy | +9.6% |
CI CI Cigna Corporation | $74.3B | 9.3x | +7.5% | 2.3% | Buy | +16.3% |
HUM HUM Humana Inc. | $29.6B | 27.6x | +14.8% | 0.8% | Hold | -0.1% |
CNC CNC Centene Corporation | $27.3B | 16.4x | +7.6% | -3.3% | Buy | -7.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ELV Dividend and Capital Return
ELV returns capital mainly through $2.6B/year in buybacks (3.3% buyback yield), with a modest 1.87% dividend — combining for 5.1% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 15 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.3%
Dividend Yield
1.87%
Payout Ratio
27.0%
How ELV Splits Its Return
Div 1.87%
Buyback 3.3%
Dividend 1.87%Buybacks 3.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$6.89
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
15Y
3Y Div CAGR
10.1%
5Y Div CAGR
12.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.6B
Estimated Shares Retired
7M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
217M
At 3.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $3.44 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $6.84 | +4.9% | 3.4% | 5.3% |
| 2024 | $6.52 | +10.1% | 3.4% | 5.1% |
| 2023 | $5.92 | +15.6% | 2.4% | 3.6% |
| 2022 | $5.12 | +13.3% | 1.9% | 2.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsELV Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Elevance Health Inc. (ELV) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Elevance Health Inc. (ELV) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 37 analysts covering the stock, 26 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 11 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $382, implying +2.0% from the current price of $375. The bear case scenario is $403 and the bull case is $910.
02What is the ELV stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ELV is $382 based on 37 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $425 (+13.4% from today), and the low-end target is $331 (-11.7%). The base case model target is $494.
03Is Elevance Health Inc. (ELV) stock overvalued in 2026?
ELV trades at 14.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Elevance Health Inc. (ELV) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ELV in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory Uncertainty — Changes in healthcare policy, especially Medicare and Medicaid, can alter enrollment and reimbursement rates. (2) Legal & Regulatory Investigations — The company faces investigations for potential securities fraud and sanctions related to historical data submissions. (3) Competitive Pressures — Elevance competes with numerous established insurers and new entrants, requiring constant product innovation and pricing adjustments. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Elevance Health Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ELV will report consensus revenue of $208.5B (+4.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $28.17 (+18.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $227.6B in revenue.
06When does Elevance Health Inc. (ELV) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ELV is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Elevance Health Inc. generate?
Elevance Health Inc. (ELV) generated $6.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 3.2%. ELV returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.9% yield) and share repurchases ($2.6B TTM).