Upside case
Bull case
$530+644.9%
DINO would need investors to value it at roughly 94x earnings — about 81x more generous than today's 13x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
16
analysts
10 bullish · 1 bearish · 16 covering DINO
Strong Buy
1
Buy
9
Hold
5
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$62
-13.4% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $530
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
16
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.8B
DINO price targets
Three scenarios for where DINO stock could go
Current
~$71
Confidence
60 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $71
Base
$127
Bull
$530
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$127+79.3%
At 23x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
HF Sinclair Corporation
DINO · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingDecember year-end
HF Sinclair Corporation is an independent petroleum refiner and marketer operating primarily in the Western United States. It generates revenue through refining crude oil into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel (~70% of sales) and marketing those products through its Sinclair-branded retail network and wholesale channels, plus specialty lubricants and asphalt operations. The company's competitive advantage lies in its strategically located refineries in the Rockies and Pacific Northwest—serving markets with favorable supply-demand dynamics—and its vertically integrated marketing system with strong regional brand recognition.
Market Cap
$12.8B
Revenue TTM
$27.6B
Net Income TTM
$1.2B
Net Margin
4.5%
DINO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+133.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.70/$1.09
Revenue
$6.8B/$7.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.44/$1.94
Revenue
$7.3B/$6.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.20/$0.44
Revenue
$6.5B/$6.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.69/$-0.06
Revenue
$7.1B/$6.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.70/$1.09 | +56.0% | $6.8B/$7.0B | -3.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.44/$1.94 | +25.8% | $7.3B/$6.3B | +15.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.20/$0.44 | +172.7% | $6.5B/$6.0B | +7.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.69/$-0.06 | +1166.1% | $7.1B/$6.8B | +4.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$28.0B
+1.3% YoY
FY2
$26.8B
-4.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.95
-12.7% YoY
FY2
$5.58
-6.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.2B
FCF Margin: 4.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
DINO beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
DINO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $50.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Refined Product
49.2%
-7.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
US Mid-Continent Region
36.9%
-7.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Refined Product is the largest disclosed segment at 49.2% of FY 2025 revenue, down 7.3% YoY.
US Mid-Continent Region is the largest reported region at 36.9%, down 7.3% YoY.
DINO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $44 — implies -36.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
36.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
DINO
22.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
9% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
DINO
22.9x
vs
Energy
16.9x
+35% premium
vs DINO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
22.9x
vs
5Y Average
14.7x
+56% premium
Forward PE
12.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
-34%
Energy
13.2x
-4%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
22.9x
S&P 500
25.2x
-9%
Energy
16.9x
+35%
5Y Avg
14.7x
+56%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.2x
S&P 500
15.3x
-46%
Energy
8.1x
+0%
5Y Avg
5.6x
+46%
Price/FCF
14.8x
S&P 500
21.3x
-31%
Energy
14.1x
+5%
5Y Avg
7.3x
+103%
Price/Sales
0.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-85%
Energy
1.6x
-69%
5Y Avg
0.3x
+64%
Dividend Yield
2.84%
S&P 500
1.88%
+51%
Energy
2.97%
-4%
5Y Avg
3.37%
-16%
| Metric | DINO | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg DINO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.6x | 19.1x-34% | 13.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 22.9x | 25.2x | 16.9x+35% | 14.7x+56% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.2x | 15.3x-46% | 8.1x | 5.6x+46% |
| Price/FCF | 14.8x | 21.3x-31% | 14.1x | 7.3x+103% |
| Price/Sales | 0.5x | 3.1x-85% | 1.6x-69% | 0.3x+64% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.84% | 1.88% | 2.97% | 3.37% |
DINO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolDINO Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
DINO returns 5.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$27.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-1.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
7.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
6.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
4.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.81
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
4.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$978M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.9× FCF
~1.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
13.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.6%
Dividend
2.8%
Buyback
2.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$354M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.02
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
64.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
180M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageDINO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Governance Uncertainty
The voluntary leave of the CEO and an ongoing audit committee review have created governance uncertainty for HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO). This situation has led to downgrades in analyst ratings, potentially causing investor hesitation despite positive financial results.
High Risk
Valuation Concerns
DINO is perceived as overvalued, with reports indicating a 35.6% overvaluation based on a GF Value™ of $45.45 compared to its market price of $61.64. Additionally, its trailing P/E ratio is significantly higher than its 5-year median, raising concerns about its valuation.
High Risk
Earnings Volatility
Analysts are witnessing a split in earnings estimates for DINO, which highlights concerns regarding near-term margin performance. This reinforces earnings volatility as a central risk for the company.
Medium
Market Sentiment Risk
DINO's stock performance is closely linked to broader energy market sentiment and crack spread dynamics. Any deterioration in these factors could negatively impact the stock's performance.
Medium
Dividend Sustainability
Despite a dividend yield of around 3.24%, there are concerns regarding the sustainability of this dividend in light of recent revenue pressures and margin compression affecting the company.
Lower
Growth Challenges
While DINO has strong financial strength and profitability, its growth rank is noted as low, indicating potential challenges in expanding revenue or earnings in the future.
Lower
Regulatory Risks
Long-term risks associated with evolving regulations and the energy transition, particularly the rise of electric vehicles, could pose challenges to DINO's refining business.
Lower
Technical Overbought Conditions
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for DINO is currently high, suggesting that the stock may be overbought in the short term, which could lead to price corrections.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why DINO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Financial Strength and Performance
HF Sinclair has demonstrated robust earnings, with a notable Q4 2025 earnings beat, exceeding consensus estimates for both EPS and revenue. The company has a strong balance sheet with manageable debt levels and a healthy net debt-to-EBITDA ratio.
Strategic Market Positioning
The company is well-positioned in the energy sector with stable midstream earnings and a strong marketing business characterized by high margins and growing retail economics. Its West Coast refining advantage and focus on renewable diesel and strategic marketing ventures capitalize on evolving energy transition trends.
Attractive Valuation
Despite a significant surge in its stock price over the past year, several analyses suggest DINO may still be undervalued. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models indicate a substantial gap between the current share price and estimated intrinsic value, with some models suggesting it could be over 50% undervalued.
Shareholder Returns Commitment
HF Sinclair maintains a commitment to shareholder returns, including a regular cash dividend, which enhances its attractiveness to investors seeking income.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
A majority of analysts covering DINO have a 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy' consensus rating, indicating confidence in the stock's potential for growth and suggesting potential upside from current levels.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
DINO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$71.08
52W Range Position
91%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$32.39
+119.5% from the low
52-Week High
$74.72
-4.9% from the high
1 Month
+16.18%
3 Month
+21.32%
YTD
+51.7%
1 Year
+118.0%
3Y CAGR
+22.1%
5Y CAGR
+15.0%
10Y CAGR
+9.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
DINO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.6x
vs 11.1x median
+14% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.3%
vs +0.2% median
+631% above peer median
Net Margin
4.5%
vs 3.0% median
+47% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DIN DINO HF Sinclair Corporation | $12.8B | 12.6x | +1.3% | 4.5% | Buy | -13.4% |
VLO VLO Valero Energy Corporation | $70.8B | 10.0x | +0.2% | 3.3% | Buy | -9.3% |
PSX PSX Phillips 66 | $68.8B | 11.7x | +3.4% | 3.0% | Buy | -4.9% |
MPC MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation | $72.4B | 11.1x | +2.4% | 3.4% | Buy | -12.6% |
PBF PBF PBF Energy Inc. | $4.9B | 7.5x | -2.1% | -0.5% | Hold | -8.6% |
DK DK Delek US Holdings, Inc. | $2.8B | 11.9x | -4.9% | -0.5% | Hold | -1.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
DINO Dividend and Capital Return
DINO returns 5.3% total yield, led by a 2.71% dividend. Buybacks add another 2.6%.
Dividend WatchFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.6%
Dividend Yield
2.71%
Payout Ratio
64.9%
How DINO Splits Its Return
Div 2.71%
Buyback 2.6%
Dividend 2.71%Buybacks 2.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.02
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
18.6%
5Y Div CAGR
7.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$354M
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
180M
At 2.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.00 | 0.0% | 4.1% | 8.5% |
| 2024 | $2.00 | +11.1% | 10.0% | 15.7% |
| 2023 | $1.80 | +50.0% | 9.5% | 12.7% |
| 2022 | $1.20 | +242.9% | 13.1% | 15.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsDINO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 16 analysts covering the stock, 10 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $62, implying -13.4% from the current price of $71.
02What is the DINO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for DINO is $62 based on 16 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $66 (-7.1% from today), and the low-end target is $53 (-25.4%). The base case model target is $127.
03Is HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) stock overvalued in 2026?
DINO trades at 12.6x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for DINO in 2026 are: (1) Governance Uncertainty — The voluntary leave of the CEO and an ongoing audit committee review have created governance uncertainty for HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO). (2) Valuation Concerns — DINO is perceived as overvalued, with reports indicating a 35. (3) Earnings Volatility — Analysts are witnessing a split in earnings estimates for DINO, which highlights concerns regarding near-term margin performance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is HF Sinclair Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates DINO will report consensus revenue of $28.0B (+1.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.95 (-12.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $26.8B in revenue.
06When does HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for DINO is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does HF Sinclair Corporation generate?
HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) generated $1.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.3%. DINO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.7% yield) and share repurchases ($354M TTM).