Upside case
Bull case
$18+9.5%
PCG would need investors to value it at roughly 11x earnings — about 1x more generous than today's 10x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
PG&E Corporation (PCG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
29
analysts
17 bullish · 1 bearish · 29 covering PCG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
17
Hold
11
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$23
+40.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$6 – $18
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
29
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
9.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $36.0B
PCG price targets
Three scenarios for where PCG stock could go
Current
~$16
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $16
Bear
$6
Base
$22
Bull
$18
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$22+33.3%
At 13x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$6-63.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push PCG down roughly 64% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
PG&E Corporation
PCG · NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricDecember year-end
Pacific Gas & Electric is a regulated utility that provides electricity and natural gas to customers across northern and central California. It earns revenue primarily through regulated rates approved by the California Public Utilities Commission — with electricity generation and distribution accounting for the majority of its income — supplemented by natural gas sales. Its key advantage is its regulated monopoly status in its service territory, which provides stable, predictable returns through cost-of-service ratemaking.
Market Cap
$36.0B
Revenue TTM
$25.8B
Net Income TTM
$3.0B
Net Margin
11.4%
PCG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.31/$0.32
Revenue
$5.9B/$6.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.50/$0.42
Revenue
$6.3B/$6.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.36/$0.36
Revenue
$6.8B/$7.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.43/$0.40
Revenue
$6.9B/$6.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.31/$0.32 | -1.9% | $5.9B/$6.2B | -5.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.50/$0.42 | +17.9% | $6.3B/$6.4B | -2.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.36/$0.36 | -1.1% | $6.8B/$7.1B | -3.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.43/$0.40 | +8.0% | $6.9B/$6.3B | +10.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$26.7B
+3.4% YoY
FY2
$27.7B
+3.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.50
+15.7% YoY
FY2
$1.57
+5.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$4.2B
FCF Margin: -16.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
PCG beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
PCG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $25.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Electricity
73.0%
-1.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Electricity is the largest disclosed segment at 73.0% of FY 2025 revenue, down 1.7% YoY.
PCG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $24 — implies +45.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
45.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PCG
13.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
45% discount
vs Utilities Trailing P/E
PCG
13.8x
vs
Utilities
20.1x
31% discount
vs PCG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
13.8x
vs
5Y Average
16.9x
18% discount
Forward PE
9.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-48%
Utilities
17.5x
-43%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
13.8x
S&P 500
25.1x
-45%
Utilities
20.1x
-31%
5Y Avg
16.9x
-18%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Utilities
1.69x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
-36%
Utilities
11.4x
-14%
5Y Avg
11.3x
-13%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.1x
—
Utilities
15.1x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
1.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-54%
Utilities
2.2x
-33%
5Y Avg
1.5x
-4%
Dividend Yield
0.61%
S&P 500
1.87%
-67%
Utilities
3.06%
-80%
5Y Avg
0.41%
+49%
| Metric | PCG | S&P 500 | Utilities | 5Y Avg PCG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 9.9x | 19.1x-48% | 17.5x-43% | — |
| Trailing PE | 13.8x | 25.1x-45% | 20.1x-31% | 16.9x-18% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.69x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.8x | 15.2x-36% | 11.4x-14% | 11.3x-13% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.1x | 15.1x | — |
| Price/Sales | 1.4x | 3.1x-54% | 2.2x-33% | 1.5x |
| Dividend Yield | 0.61% | 1.87% | 3.06% | 0.41% |
PCG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 4 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPCG Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
PCG earns 19.4% operating margin on regulated earnings, 0.6% dividend yield. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$25.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+5.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
19.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
11.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.29
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
19.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$713M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$60.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
9.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.6%
Dividend
0.6%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.10
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
8.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
2.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pagePCG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Wildfire Liability Risk
PG&E faces ongoing exposure to wildfire-related litigation and regulatory actions, which could significantly impact its share price and financial stability. Analysts apply a substantial discount to the company's valuation due to this risk.
High Risk
Operational Safety Risks
Past incidents, including the San Bruno pipeline explosion and numerous wildfires linked to powerline maintenance, highlight risks associated with equipment failure and maintenance practices. The company is investing in hardening its infrastructure and modernizing the grid to mitigate these risks.
Medium
Regulatory Environment
PG&E operates in a heavily regulated environment, where ongoing regulatory reviews and compliance activities can introduce uncertainty in the company's earnings outlook. Compliance with post-bankruptcy reporting requirements is crucial for maintaining investor confidence.
Medium
Financial Risks
Despite efforts to de-risk its financing and achieve investment-grade credit, PG&E still faces financial risks related to changes in capital structure and debt management. The company's ability to manage catastrophic losses remains a concern.
Medium
Climate Change Impact
California's prolonged droughts and tinder-dry conditions exacerbate wildfire risks, with utilities potentially held liable for damages caused by their equipment. This risk persists even if regulations are followed, known as inverse condemnation.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PCG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Q1 2026 Results
PG&E reported a significant increase in Q1 2026 earnings, with GAAP earnings at $0.39 per diluted share, up from $0.28 in the prior year. Non-GAAP core earnings also rose to $0.43 per share from $0.33.
Reaffirmed 2026 Guidance
The company has reaffirmed its full-year 2026 non-GAAP core earnings per share (EPS) guidance of $1.64–$1.66. This signals confidence in its ability to achieve projected earnings, driven by customer capital investment and operational savings.
Projected EPS Growth
PG&E anticipates 9%+ annual EPS growth through 2030, with no need for new equity issuance until then. This consistent growth projection is a significant positive for investors.
Infrastructure Hardening Investments
PG&E is investing heavily in strengthening its grid, including undergrounding powerlines and installing stronger poles, to enhance safety and reliability. These investments are crucial for improving operational resilience.
Clean Energy Integration Plans
The company is actively integrating renewable energy into the grid, with plans to connect more renewable natural gas facilities and utilize its Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant for extended operations. This plant provides a significant portion of California's clean energy.
Rate Reductions for Customers
PG&E has successfully lowered bundled residential electric rates, particularly for vulnerable customers, which can foster customer goodwill and regulatory support. This strategy is likely to enhance customer loyalty and satisfaction.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PCG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$16.33
52W Range Position
54%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$12.97
+25.9% from the low
52-Week High
$19.16
-14.8% from the high
1 Month
-7.58%
3 Month
+0.31%
YTD
+0.4%
1 Year
-3.5%
3Y CAGR
-1.8%
5Y CAGR
+8.3%
10Y CAGR
-12.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PCG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
9.9x
vs 17.9x median
-45% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.4%
vs +3.8% median
-12% below peer median
Net Margin
11.4%
vs 14.4% median
-20% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PCG PCG PG&E Corporation | $36.0B | 9.9x | +3.4% | 11.4% | Buy | +40.8% |
EIX EIX Edison International | $26.5B | 11.3x | +3.8% | 18.9% | Buy | +8.4% |
SRE SRE Sempra | $61.4B | 18.5x | +2.7% | 14.4% | Buy | +13.4% |
ED ED Consolidated Edison, Inc. | $25.7B | 17.9x | +6.8% | 12.3% | Hold | -0.3% |
EXC EXC Exelon Corporation | $46.6B | 16.2x | +3.7% | 11.6% | Hold | +6.5% |
DUK DUK Duke Energy Corporation | $99.3B | 19.0x | +4.8% | 15.4% | Hold | +6.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PCG Dividend and Capital Return
PCG returns 0.6% total yield, led by a 0.61% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.61%
Payout Ratio
8.1%
How PCG Splits Its Return
Div 0.61%
Dividend 0.61%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.10
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.2B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.05 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.13 | +127.3% | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| 2024 | $0.06 | +450.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 2023 | $0.01 | — | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2017 | $1.55 | -19.5% | 0.0% | 4.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsPCG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is PG&E Corporation (PCG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
PG&E Corporation (PCG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 29 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 11 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $23, implying +40.8% from the current price of $16. The bear case scenario is $6 and the bull case is $18.
02What is the PCG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PCG is $23 based on 29 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $25 (+53.1% from today), and the low-end target is $21 (+28.6%). The base case model target is $22.
03Is PG&E Corporation (PCG) stock overvalued in 2026?
PCG trades at 9.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for PG&E Corporation (PCG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PCG in 2026 are: (1) Wildfire Liability Risk — PG&E faces ongoing exposure to wildfire-related litigation and regulatory actions, which could significantly impact its share price and financial stability. (2) Operational Safety Risks — Past incidents, including the San Bruno pipeline explosion and numerous wildfires linked to powerline maintenance, highlight risks associated with equipment failure and maintenance practices. (3) Regulatory Environment — PG&E operates in a heavily regulated environment, where ongoing regulatory reviews and compliance activities can introduce uncertainty in the company's earnings outlook. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is PG&E Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PCG will report consensus revenue of $26.7B (+3.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.50 (+15.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $27.7B in revenue.
06When does PG&E Corporation (PCG) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for PCG is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does PG&E Corporation generate?
PG&E Corporation (PCG) had a free cash outflow of $4.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 16.3%. PCG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.6% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).