Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing CNC more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Centene Corporation (CNC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
43
analysts
26 bullish · 1 bearish · 43 covering CNC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
26
Hold
16
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$51
-3.7% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
43
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $26.2B
CNC price targets
Three scenarios for where CNC stock could go
Current
~$53
Confidence
67 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Centene Corporation
CNC · NYSEHealthcareMedical - Healthcare PlansDecember year-end
Centene Corporation is a managed healthcare company that primarily serves government-sponsored health programs for low-income and vulnerable populations. It generates revenue mainly through Medicaid managed care plans—which account for the majority of its business—along with Medicare, commercial insurance, and specialty pharmacy services. The company's key advantage is its deep expertise and scale in administering complex government healthcare programs, particularly Medicaid, where it has built specialized infrastructure and relationships with state governments.
Market Cap
$26.2B
Revenue TTM
$198.1B
Net Income TTM
-$6.4B
Net Margin
-3.3%
CNC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+36.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.16/$0.11
Revenue
$48.7B/$44.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.50/$-0.14
Revenue
$49.7B/$47.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$-1.19/$-1.22
Revenue
$49.7B/$48.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.37/$2.23
Revenue
$49.9B/$47.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-0.16/$0.11 | -243.4% | $48.7B/$44.1B | +10.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.50/$-0.14 | +445.4% | $49.7B/$47.7B | +4.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $-1.19/$-1.22 | +2.5% | $49.7B/$48.4B | +2.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.37/$2.23 | +51.1% | $49.9B/$47.5B | +5.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$213.1B
+7.6% YoY
FY2
$240.2B
+12.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-6.35
+51.2% YoY
FY2
$-7.31
-15.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$6.3B
FCF Margin: 3.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
CNC beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
CNC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $194.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Medicaid Segment
75.8%
+18.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Medicaid Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 75.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 18.6% YoY.
CNC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $107 — implies +101.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
101.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CNC
-3.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
115% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
CNC
-3.9x
vs
Healthcare
22.2x
118% discount
vs CNC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-3.9x
vs
5Y Average
25.1x
116% discount
Forward PE
15.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
-18%
Healthcare
18.8x
-17%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-3.9x
S&P 500
25.1x
-115%
Healthcare
22.2x
-118%
5Y Avg
25.1x
-116%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Healthcare
1.53x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Healthcare
14.0x
—
5Y Avg
14.4x
—
Price/FCF
6.1x
S&P 500
21.1x
-71%
Healthcare
18.6x
-67%
5Y Avg
8.5x
-29%
Price/Sales
0.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-96%
Healthcare
2.8x
-95%
5Y Avg
0.3x
-47%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Healthcare
1.42%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | CNC | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg CNC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.7x | 19.1x-18% | 18.8x-17% | — |
| Trailing PE | -3.9x | 25.1x-115% | 22.2x-118% | 25.1x-116% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.53x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 14.0x | 14.4x |
| Price/FCF | 6.1x | 21.1x-71% | 18.6x-67% | 8.5x-29% |
| Price/Sales | 0.1x | 3.1x-96% | 2.8x-95% | 0.3x-47% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.42% | — |
CNC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 4 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCNC Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
CNC posts -3.3% net margin with -28.6% ROE — the core signals of underwriting discipline and capital efficiency.
Underwriting & Earnings
Premium revenue, margins, and returns
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$198.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+17.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-3.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-3.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-13.00
ROE
Return on equity — measures underwriting and investment efficiency
-28.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-21.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-7.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$17.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$889M
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-28.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.8%
Dividend
—
Buyback
1.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$475M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
494M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageCNC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Government Program Dependence
Centene derives a significant portion of its revenue from government-sponsored healthcare programs like Medicaid and Medicare. Changes in government funding, eligibility requirements, or program structures can materially affect the company's operations and cash flows, with the risk of losing contracts in certain states.
High Risk
Regulatory and Political Environment
Operating in a highly regulated industry, Centene is vulnerable to changes in healthcare policies and legislation. Adverse regulatory changes can lead to reduced revenues and profits, creating significant uncertainty for the company's business.
High Risk
Medical Cost Management
Centene's profitability is closely tied to its Health Benefits Ratio (HBR), which recently increased to 93%, up from 87.6% year-over-year. Rising medical costs, particularly in behavioral health and high-cost drugs, can erode profitability if premium rates do not keep pace.
Medium
Marketplace Business Headwinds
Centene's ACA Marketplace business faces structural headwinds and regulatory challenges that could negatively impact revenue stability. A decline in enrollment or changes in subsidies may further exacerbate these challenges.
Medium
Investment Portfolio Risk
Centene maintains a significant investment portfolio exposed to market, credit, liquidity, and interest rate risks. Losses in this portfolio could adversely affect the company's operational results and liquidity.
Medium
Competition
The healthcare insurance market is highly competitive, with Centene facing pressure from other health insurers. This competition can impact market share and profitability.
Lower
Litigation
Centene is subject to ongoing litigation, which could result in substantial financial liabilities and reputational damage if adverse outcomes occur.
Lower
Macroeconomic Factors
Inflation and changes in interest rates can affect Centene's operational costs and investment returns. Rising inflation may increase medical costs, while higher interest rates could impact financing and growth initiatives.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CNC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Undervalued Stock Price and Potential for Rebound
Centene's stock has experienced a significant decline, reaching near decade-lows. This depressed valuation, coupled with positive catalysts, suggests substantial upside potential, with some analyses indicating the stock could potentially double, returning to previous trading ranges.
ACA Rate Increases and Margin Recovery
Anticipated increases in Affordable Care Act (ACA) rates are expected to drive a significant earnings rebound in 2026. Early state approvals suggest average price hikes of approximately 27% for Centene's ACA business, which could substantially improve ACA margins and revenues.
Operational Improvements and Normalization
Centene is expected to benefit from normalized utilization trends in its insurance pools. The company has implemented initiatives such as an ABA task force and clinical management programs to improve efficiency, with a key indicator being the Medicaid Health Benefits Ratio (HBR) remaining at or below 93.7% in Q1 2026.
Growth in Other Segments
Centene's Marketplace repricing for 2026 is expected to be in the mid-30% range. Additionally, the Medicare Advantage segment is trending towards breakeven by 2027, indicating growth potential in these areas.
Strong Fundamentals and Market Position
Centene is America's largest Medicaid managed care organization, demonstrating strong revenue growth with a reported increase of 21.9% compared to the same quarter last year. Despite past profitability challenges, the company has a positive return on equity of 4.25%.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CNC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$52.97
52W Range Position
71%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$25.08
+111.2% from the low
52-Week High
$64.15
-17.4% from the high
1 Month
+49.68%
3 Month
+32.68%
YTD
+26.8%
1 Year
-11.4%
3Y CAGR
-8.2%
5Y CAGR
-4.1%
10Y CAGR
+5.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CNC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.7x
vs 19.9x median
-21% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.6%
vs +4.0% median
+88% above peer median
Net Margin
-3.3%
vs 0.8% median
-495% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CNC CNC Centene Corporation | $26.2B | 15.7x | +7.6% | -3.3% | Buy | -3.7% |
MOH MOH Molina Healthcare, Inc. | $10.0B | 37.3x | +8.2% | 0.4% | Buy | -13.6% |
UNH UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | $330.3B | 19.9x | +3.2% | 2.7% | Buy | +5.9% |
ELV ELV Elevance Health Inc. | $80.1B | 13.8x | +4.0% | 2.6% | Buy | +3.6% |
HUM HUM Humana Inc. | $28.8B | 26.8x | +14.8% | 0.8% | Hold | +2.7% |
CVS CVS CVS Health Corporation | $102.6B | 11.3x | +3.5% | 0.4% | Buy | +18.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CNC Dividend and Capital Return
CNC returns 1.8% annually — null% through dividends and 1.8% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
1.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.8%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$475M
Estimated Shares Retired
9M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
494M
At 1.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsCNC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Centene Corporation (CNC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Centene Corporation (CNC) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 43 analysts covering the stock, 26 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $51, implying -3.7% from the current price of $53.
02What is the CNC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CNC is $51 based on 43 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $63 (+18.9% from today), and the low-end target is $39 (-26.4%).
03Is Centene Corporation (CNC) stock overvalued in 2026?
CNC trades at 15.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Centene Corporation (CNC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CNC in 2026 are: (1) Government Program Dependence — Centene derives a significant portion of its revenue from government-sponsored healthcare programs like Medicaid and Medicare. (2) Regulatory and Political Environment — Operating in a highly regulated industry, Centene is vulnerable to changes in healthcare policies and legislation. (3) Medical Cost Management — Centene's profitability is closely tied to its Health Benefits Ratio (HBR), which recently increased to 93%, up from 87. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Centene Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CNC will report consensus revenue of $213.1B (+7.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $-6.35 (+51.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $240.2B in revenue.
06When does Centene Corporation (CNC) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for CNC is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Centene Corporation generate?
Centene Corporation (CNC) generated $6.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 3.2%. CNC returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($475M TTM).